US embassy cable - 02HARARE786

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000786 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/12 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: MDC URGES USG TO LET SOUTH AFRICA AND NIGERIA 
PUSH FOR NEW ELECTION 
 
REF:  A) HARARE 748  B) HARARE 721 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.  REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) SUMMARY: MEMBERS OF THE OPPOSITION MDC LEADERSHIP ARE 
MORE COMFORTABLE WITH PRESIDENT OBASANJO'S EFFORTS TO FACILITATE 
DIALOGUE WITH ZANU-PF THAN WITH PRESIDENT MBEKI'S.  THE PARTY'S 
SECRETARY-GENERAL, WELSHMAN NCUBE, ADVISED THE USG AGAINST 
 
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PRESSING PUBLICLY FOR A NEW ELECTION AT THIS STAGE, INSTEAD 
ENCOURAGING US TO PUSH SOUTH AFRICA AND NIGERIA TO TAKE THE 
PUBLIC LEAD ON THIS ISSUE.  NCUBE DESCRIBED THE PARTY'S 
INTERACTIONS WITH THE CANADIAN COMPANY AT THE CENTER OF THE 
ALLEGED ASSASSINATION PLOT AGAINST PRESIDENT MUGABE.  DANGER 
SIGNS OF A SETUP WERE EVIDENT FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE COMPANY'S 
APPROACH TO THE MDC, AND THE PARTY'S FAILURE TO RECOGNIZE THOSE 
AT THE TIME REVEALS A SURPRISING POLITICAL NAIVETE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) THE AMBASSADOR, ACCOMPANIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF, 
MET AT HIS RESIDENCE ON MARCH 22 WITH MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL 
WELSHMAN NCUBE.  NCUBE WAS JOINED BY THE MDC'S SHADOW FOREIGN 
MINISTER AND MP TENDAI BITI. 
 
TALKS WITH MBEKI, OBASANJO 
-------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) WE ASKED TENDAI BITI, WHO HAD PARTICIPATED IN MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI'S POST-ELECTION TALKS ON MARCH 18 WITH PRESIDENTS 
 
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MBEKI AND OBASANJO (REF B), FOR HIS IMPRESSIONS OF THOSE 
DISCUSSIONS.  BITI APPROVINGLY DESCRIBED OBASANJO AS A CONSUMMATE 
BRIDGE-BUILDER WHO DID AN IMPRESSIVE JOB OF BREAKING THE ICE IN A 
MEETING WHICH WAS AWKWARD AT FIRST.  HE THOUGHT MUCH LESS OF 
PRESIDENT MBEKI, WHOM HE DESCRIBED AS A "COLD, CALCULATING 
POLITICIAN."  BITI CONFIRMED THAT THE TWO PRESIDENTS DID NOT 
PRESS FOR A GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY AS THE WAY FORWARD BUT 
DID ENCOURAGE AN MDC-ZANU-PF DIALOGUE. 
 
4.  (C) NCUBE NOTED THAT THE FACILITATORS NAMED BY MBEKI AND 
OBASANJO -- ANC SECRETARY-GENERAL KGALEMA MOTHANTHE AND NIGERIAN 
ACADEMIC PROFESSOR ADBEYO ADEDEJI -- HAD ARRIVED IN ZIMBABWE AND 
WERE CURRENTLY TOUCHING BASE WITH THE LEADERSHIP OF BOTH PARTIES. 
THE MDC HAD SHARED ITS NEGOTIATING PRINCIPLES WITH THE 
FACILITATORS AND WOULD WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE OTHER SIDE CAME UP 
WITH.  ASKED WHETHER THE FACILITATORS WERE FAIR BROKERS, NCUBE 
SAID HE DID NOT KNOW THE NIGERIAN BUT HAD HEARD GOOD THINGS ABOUT 
HIM.  IT WAS TOO EARLY TO TELL, HE SAID, WHETHER THE ANC 
SECRETARY-GENERAL WOULD PLAY A POSITIVE ROLE.  HE WAS PLEASED 
 
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THAT MOTHANTHE HAD STATED HIS OBJECTIVE AS PROMOTING SUFFICIENT 
RECONCILIATION TO HAVE A UNITY GOVERNMENT BEFORE AND AGAIN AFTER 
NEW ELECTIONS. 
 
WAY FORWARD: NEW ELECTION? 
-------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) ASKED WHAT THE MDC'S CURRENT OBJECTIVES WERE, BITI SAID 
HE SUPPORTED FORMATION OF AN INTERIM GOVERNMENT, THEN DRAFTING OF 
A NEW CONSTITUTION WHICH WOULD GOVERN NEW ELECTIONS.  BITI 
INSISTED THAT THE CONSTITUTION-DRAFTING PROCESS WOULD NOT TAKE 
LONG, AS SIGNIFICANT MATERIAL HAD BEEN GLEANED SINCE THE MOVE FOR 
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CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM BEGAN IN 1999.  NCUBE ADDED THAT KEY 
ELEMENTS OF THE PARTY LEADERSHIP WOULD BE GATHERING AT A RETREAT 
NEAR BULAWAYO OVER THE WEEKEND TO STRATEGIZE ON NEXT STEPS. 
(COMMENT: HEAVY SURVEILLANCE BY POLICE AND CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE 
ORGANIZATION AGENTS OF THE PLANNED VENUE IN THE MATOBO HILLS 
TOURIST AREA FORCED PARTICIPANTS TO RECONVENE IN BULAWAYO.  WE 
WILL BE SEEKING A READOUT OF THE LEADERSHIP'S DISCUSSIONS.  END 
COMMENT.)  THE AMBASSADOR ASKED WHETHER IT WOULD BE HELPFUL FOR 
THE UNITED STATES TO PRESS PUBLICLY FOR A NEW ELECTION.  NCUBE 
SAID SUCH AN APPROACH AT THIS EARLY STAGE WOULD BE 
COUNTERPRODUCTIVE, PLAYING INTO MUGABE'S EFFORTS TO DEMONIZE THE 
WEST.  HE ADVISED US TO ENCOURAGE SOUTH AFRICA AND NIGERIA 
QUIETLY TO TAKE THE LEAD ON THIS ISSUE.   ASKED WHETHER THE MDC 
HAD IN PLACE A PLAN IN CASE ITS LEADERSHIP WAS ARRESTED, NCUBE 
SAID THE SIMPLE ANSWER WAS "NO, WE HAVE NO PLAN B TO DEAL WITH 
SUCH A SCENARIO." 
 
DICKENS AND MADSON SAGA 
----------------------- 
 
6. (C) NCUBE HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH TREASON ALONG WITH MDC LEADER 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO2311 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00  DODE-00  DS-00 
      EUR-00   E-00     VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01 
      VCE-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   IRM-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00 
      SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------7AA889  261323Z /38 
P 261306Z MAR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1319 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA PRIORITY 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000786 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/12 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: MDC URGES USG TO LET SOUTH AFRICA AND NIGERIA 
PUSH FOR NEW ELECTION 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00786  02 OF 02  261323Z 
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI AND THE PARTY'S SHADOW AGRICULTURE MINISTER, 
RENSON GASELA, IN THE ALLEGED ASSASSINATION PLOT AGAINST 
PRESIDENT MUGABE.  NCUBE TOLD US THAT THE COMPANY AT THE CENTER 
OF THE ALLEGED PLOT, DICKENS AND MADSON, HAD HIRED RUPERT 
JOHNSON, A LONG-TIME FRIEND OF GASELA'S, TO MAKE THE INITIAL 
PITCH TO THE MDC.  ACCORDING TO NCUBE, JOHNSON WAS AN UNWITTING 
PAWN IN THE WHOLE AFFAIR -- HE WAS RECRUITED TO WORK IN DICKENS 
AND MADSON SOME MONTHS EARLIER; IT TURNS OUT ONLY TO SET UP 
TSVANGIRAI AND HE HAS SINCE BEEN DISMISSED BY THE COMPANY. 
 
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7.  (C) ACCORDING TO NCUBE, DICKENS AND MADSON HAD APPROACHED THE 
MDC WITH AN OFFER TO REPRESENT THE PARTY IN THE UNITED STATES AND 
CANADA.  THE COMPANY CLAIMED TO HAVE EXCELLENT CONNECTIONS AT THE 
VERY HIGHEST LEVELS OF THOSE GOVERNMENTS.  DICKENS AND MADSON 
CLAIMED FURTHER TO HAVE RAISED MONEY FROM DISGRUNTLED ZIMBABWEANS 
LIVING ABROAD AND SAID IT WOULD SIMPLY DEDUCT ITS LOBBYING FEES 
OUT OF THESE FUNDS.  THE MDC ONLY WOULD BE REQUIRED TO TRANSFER A 
SMALL SUM OF MONEY TO THE COMPANY, AS THEY WERE TOLD PROOF OF 
SUCH A TRANSFER MUST BE PRESENTED WHEN A LOBBYING GROUP REGISTERS 
IN THE UNITED STATES TO REPRESENT A FOREIGN ORGANIZATION.  IN A 
PROPHETIC STATEMENT, THE MDC'S TREASURER INITIALLY BALKED AT 
MAKING THIS PAYMENT, COMMENTING THAT HE HOPED THE PARTY WOULD NOT 
COME TO REGRET ITS ASSOCIATION WITH DICKENS AND MADSON. 
 
8.  (C) NCUBE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT, IN RETROSPECT, DANGER SIGNS 
WERE EVIDENT FROM THE MOMENT DICKENS AND MADSON CONTACTED THE 
PARTY.  THE MDC IGNORED THEM, HOWEVER, AND REFRAINED FROM 
VERIFYING THE COMPANY'S BONA FIDES AND THOSE OF ITS DIRECTOR, ARI 
BEN-MENASHE, BECAUSE IT TRUSTED GASELA'S LONGSTANDING PERSONAL 
RELATIONSHIP WITH RUPERT JOHNSON.  NCUBE ADMITTED THAT THAT HAD 
TURNED OUT TO BE A COLOSSAL MISTAKE. HE EXPRESSED CONFIDENCE, 
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HOWEVER, THAT THE CHARGES WOULD NOT HOLD UP IN COURT AND RELISHED 
THE PROSPECT OF CROSS-EXAMINING BEN-MENASHE.  THE AMBASSADOR 
NOTED THAT THE USG HAD A GREAT DEAL OF DEROGATORY INFORMATION 
ABOUT BEN-MENASHE, AND ENCOURAGED NCUBE IN FUTURE TO APPROACH US 
WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT COMPANIES OR INDIVIDUALS CLAIMING TO HAVE 
SENIOR CONNECTIONS WITHIN THE U.S. GOVERNMENT. 
 
COMMENT 
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9.  (C) TENDAI BITI'S PREFERENCE FOR A NEW ELECTION HELD ONLY 
AFTER NATIONAL ENDORSEMENT OF A NEW CONSTITUTION IS NOT PARTY 
POLICY.  MORGAN TSVANGIRAI HAS CALLED FOR A NEW ELECTION HELD 
UNDER INTERNATIONAL SUPERVISION, BUT THE PARTY HAS NOT DETERMINED 
THAT A NEW CONSTITUTION SHOULD BE A PREREQUISITE FOR ANOTHER 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  WE SHARE FOR NOW NCUBE'S VIEW THAT A 
VISIBLE USG ROLE IN PUSHING FOR A NEW ELECTIONS COULD BE 
COUNTERPRODUCTIVE AT THIS STAGE AND THAT WE SHOULD, INSTEAD, 
ENCOURAGE THE SOUTH AFRICANS AND NIGERIANS TO TAKE THE LEAD ON 
THIS ISSUE.  THE MDC DEMONSTRATED A SURPRISING POLITICAL NAIVETE 
IN ITS HANDLING OF THE DICKENS AND MADSON AFFAIR, WHICH HAS 
PROVIDED THE GOZ WITH A LEGAL EXCUSE -- NO MATTER HOW THIN -- TO 
GO AFTER THE PARTY LEADERSHIP. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
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