US embassy cable - 02ROME1511

CONFIDENTIAL ROME 001511 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  01511  01 OF 02  252356Z 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001511 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2007 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, ETTC, OPDC, SA, ZI, PGOV, PHUM, ETTC, OPDC, SA, ZI, IT, SADC, ITPREL, SADC 
SUBJECT: ITALY ON ZIMBABWE:  PEER PRESSURE BEST HOPE FOR 
DEMOCRACY 
 
REF: A. BRUSSELS 1434 
 
     B. SECSTATE 49517 
     C. SECSTATE 42137 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POL M C T. COUNTRYMAN FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.    (C) MFA'S OFFICE DIRECTOR FOR SOUTHERN AFRICAN AFFAIRS 
REPLIED TO OUR RECENT DEMARCHE AND LETTER ON ZIMBABWE.  THE 
GOI SHARES THE EU POINT OF VIEW THAT CONDEMNATIONS AND 
SANCTIONS ARE NECESSARY.  HOWEVER, MARINI BELIEVES THAT THEY 
WILL PROBABLY PROVE INSUFFICIENT TO FORCE CHANGE.  THE ROLE 
OF REGIONAL ACTORS IS KEY, AND SOUTH AFRICA POSSESSES 
ECONOMIC LEVERS THAT CAN INFLUENCE MUGABE.  THE U.S. AND EU 
NEED TO CONSULT CLOSELY AND CONVINCE REGIONAL STATES TO PLAY 
A CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE.  THE EU WILL MONITOR LEGAL AND POLITICAL 
DEVELOPMENTS AND CONSIDER ADDITIONAL "SMART SANCTIONS."  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.    (U) ON MARCH 14 POLOFF DELIVERED REF B DEMARCHE ON 
ZIMBABWE'S ELECTION.  POST DELIVERED REF C LETTER TO PM 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  01511  01 OF 02  252356Z 
BERLUSCONI FROM SECRETARY POWELL ON THE CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE 
MARCH 6.  IN A MARCH 21 MEETING, CONSIGLIERE GIORGIO MARINI, 
MFA OFFICE DIRECTOR FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA, PROVIDED THE 
FOLLOWING RESPONSE AND INSIGHTS: 
 
ITALY SUPPORTS THE EU POSITION, BUT ... 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3.    (C) MARINI EXPLAINED THAT THE GOI FULLY SUPPORTED  THE 
EU POSITION ON ZIMBABWE.  RECALLING THE FEB. 18 EU DECISION 
TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS, MARINI SAID THE GOI VIEWED THESE 
MEASURES AS A NECESSARY RESPONSE TO THE GOZ'S REFUSAL TO GIVE 
GROUND ON PRESS AND JUDICIAL FREEDOMS DURING A DIALOGUE WITH 
THE EU BASED ON THE COTONOU AGREEMENT.  THE EU APPROACH WAS 
CALIBRATED TO AVOID WEAKENING THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL 
OPPOSITION TO MUGABE'S ACTIONS BY LEAVING AN OPENING TO THOSE 
WHO WOULD PAINT IT AS NEO-IMPERIALISM.  HOWEVER, MARINI'S 
PERSONAL OPINION WAS THAT EU SANCTIONS WERE UNLIKELY TO BRING 
ABOUT DEMOCRATIC CHANGE. 
 
THE IMPORTANCE OF PEER PRESSURE 
------------------------------- 
 
4.    (C) WHAT COULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE WOULD BE CONDEMNATION 
OF MUGABE'S ACTIONS BY REGIONAL POWERS IN ADDITION TO THE 
WEST.  MARINI SUGGESTED THAT ZIMBABWE'S DEPENDENCE ON SOUTH 
AFRICA FOR OIL AND GAS PROVIDED A KEY LEVER FOR PRESSURE. 
SOUTH AFRICA'S IMPORTANCE AS A MARKET FOR ZIMBABWE GAVE IT 
FURTHER LEVERAGE. 
 
5.    (C) ASKED WHY HE THOUGHT MBEKI HAD EVENTUALLY SUPPORTED 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ROME  01511  01 OF 02  252356Z 
THE COMMONWEALTH'S EXPULSION OF ZIMBABWE, MARINI CITED UK AND 
U.S. PRESSURE AND SOUTH AFRICA'S KEY ROLE IN THE NEW ECONOMIC 
PARTNERSHIP FOR AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT (NEPAD).  ONLY WHEN HIS 
"BACK WAS TO THE WALL" WAS MBEKI WILLING TO OVERCOME DOMESTIC 
PRESSURES AND OPPOSE MUGABE.  THE SITUATION WAS COMPLICATED 
FOR THE GSA, BECAUSE, ON THE ONE HAND, MUGABE HAD STOOD WITH 
THE ANC AGAINST APARTHEID IN SPITE OF HIS PERSONAL RIVALRY 
WITH MANDELA FOR THE LEADERSHIP OF SOUTHERN AFRICAN 
DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY (SADC).  ON THE OTHER HAND, SOUTH 
AFRICA WANTED TO HEAD OFF A CIVIL WAR ON ITS BORDER CAUSED BY 
POLITICAL OUTRAGE, IN ORDER TO AVOID AN INFLUX OF REFUGEES. 
FURTHERMORE, MBEKI WANTED TO MAINTAIN AN UNTARNISHED 
LEADERSHIP ROLE IN NEPAD, SINCE HE RECOGNIZED THAT THE KEY TO 
AFRICA'S FUTURE WAS WESTERN PARTNERSHIP AND INVESTMENT. 
 
6.    (C) PER REF A, MARINI CALLED FOR CLOSE U.S.-EU 
COORDINATION THAT INCLUDED NIGERIA AND SOUTH AFRICA.  SUPPORT 
OF AFRICAN AND LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES IN THE UNHCR COULD 
ALSO PROVE IMPORTANT. 
 
7.    (C) MARINI PROVIDED A DRAFT COPY OF A REPLY FROM 
BERLUSCONI TO SECRETARY POWELL THAT HAD NOT YET BEEN CLEARED 
BY THE PM'S OFFICE.  IT SAYS THAT BERLUSCONI SHARES U.S. 
CONCERNS AND VIEWS ON THE LEGITIMACY OF THE ELECTION AND IS 
PLEASED WITH THE RECENT COMMONWEALTH DECISION TO SUSPEND 
ZIMBABWE.  AN EU TROIKA WILL CONSULT WITH SADC COUNTRIES TO 
IMPRESS UPON THEM THE NECESSITY TO STAND UP FOR HUMAN RIGHTS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO0475 
 
PAGE 01        ROME  01511  02 OF 02  252356Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CA-01    CEA-01 
      CIAE-00  CIP-00   COME-00  CTME-00  INL-00   USNW-00  DODE-00 
      DOEE-00  DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EAP-00   EB-00 
      EUR-00   EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  VC-00    FRB-00   H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    ITC-01   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00 
      AC-01    NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00 
      PC-01    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00 
      SS-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  VO-03    R-00     EPAE-00 
      IIP-00   PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-02   G-00     SAS-00 
      SWCI-00    /017W 
                  ------------------7A5F78  252356Z /69 
R 251550Z MAR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY ROME 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2929 
INFO AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
AMEMBASSY GABORONE 
AMEMBASSY HARARE 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY LUANDA 
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA 
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK 
USEU BRUSSELS 2603 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  01511  02 OF 02  252356Z 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 001511 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2007 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, ETTC, SADC, OPDC, SA, ZI, IT 
SUBJECT: ITALY ON ZIMBABWE:  PEER PRESSURE BEST HOPE FOR 
DEMOCRACY 
 
AND DEMOCRACY. 
 
EU'S NEXT STEPS DEPEND ON MUGABE 
-------------------------------- 
 
8.    (C) ASKED WHAT THE EU PROPOSED NOW, MARINI POINTED TO 
THE CONCLUSIONS OF THE BARCELONA EUROPEAN COUNCIL (MARCH 
15-16), WHICH STATE THAT THE EU "RESOLVES TO MONITOR 
DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY ... AND WILL CONSIDER POSSIBLE 
ADDITIONAL TARGETED MEASURES" AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT OF 
ZIMBABWE.  THE EU WILL MONITOR THE ACTIONS TAKEN AGAINST 
ARRESTED OPPOSITION LEADER TSVANGARAI AS WELL AS WHETHER 
MUGABE FORMS A UNITY GOVERNMENT.  POTENTIAL FUTURE EU STEPS 
INCLUDE PLACING SANCTIONS ON THE SPOUSES AND CHILDREN OF THE 
HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSERS SANCTIONED IN THE FEB. 18 DECISION. 
SEMBLER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
> 
 2002ROME01511 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL