US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK1039

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001039 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
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E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, TH, Elections - Thai 
SUBJECT: THAILAND ELECTION UPDATE 
 
REF: BANGKOK 980 AND PREVIOUS 
 
 1.  (SBU) Summary:  Thailand's Election Commission (EC) has 
announced that it will officially endorse the general 
election results (votes are still being counted in some 
constituencies) by February 25.  Banyat Bantadtan has 
resigned as the leader of the major opposition Democrat Party 
(DP), along with the entire DP Executive Board.  The DP is 
setting about picking up the pieces after its poor electoral 
showing.  Mahachon Party co-founder and chief financier MGen 
Sanan Kachornprasart has also resigned from his party, which 
may lead to its dissolution.  The opening session of the new 
Thai Rak Thai (TRT)-dominated Parliament, which will choose a 
new prime minister (certain to be Thaksin Shinawatra) about 
10 days later, is tentatively scheduled for March 2-4.  PM 
Thaksin will select a new cabinet by mid-March and has 
announced that he will ignore faction quotas in doing so. 
End Summary. 
 
ELECTION COMMISSION (EC) TO OFFICIALLY ENDORSE ELECTION 
RESULTS BY FEBRUARY 25 
 
2.  (U)  Election Commissioner General Charupat, after 
meeting with the Secretary General of the Cabinet, Secretary 
General of the House of Representatives and the Lord 
Chamberlain on February 7, announced that the EC will 
officially endorse the election results for all 500 members 
of Parliament by February 25.  Reportedly, the date was 
agreed upon to allow the opening of the Parliament by March 2 
or 4.  EC Secretary-General Police Major General Ekachai 
Warunprapa also stated that the EC could endorse by February 
11 the first tranche of the official election results from 
races where no election fraud has been reported.  The In 
controversial contests, all petitions alleging election fraud 
must be submitted no later than February 14 to the EC, which 
will quickly decide whether they have merit.  Where real 
fraud (such as missing ballots or suspected ballot box 
stuffing) is documented, the EC will hand out red or yellow 
cards, leading to "re-elections" either at the level of 
corrupt polling stations or even full constituencies on 
February 20.  Four revotes took place at polling stations in 
three provinces on February 9. 
 
DEMOCRAT PARTY EXECUTIVE BOARD DEPARTS; MAHACHON PARTY SENIOR 
ADVISOR ALSO GOES 
 
3.  (U)  DP Leader Banyat Bantadtan officially left the DP 
leadership on February 8, along with Secretary-General Pradit 
Phatharaprasitder and the entire DP Executive Board.  The DP 
will meet on February 10 to formally accept the resignations, 
name an acting party leader, and begin reorganizing itself. 
Popular Deputy Leader Aphisit Vejjajiva is a strong contender 
for the top DP position.  Names being tipped for the key 
secretary general slot include Surat Thani MP Suthep 
 
SIPDIS 
Thuaksuban and Songkhla MP Niphon Bunyamani.  Mahachon Chief 
Advisor MGen Sanan Kachornprasart also officially resigned 
his position in the Mahachon Party (MCP), which appears to 
have won only a single seat in last weekend's national 
election.  MCP Party Secretary General Chadet Insawhang also 
quit the party.  The resignation of Sanan, the party's 
principal financial backer, could lead fairly quickly to 
dissolution of the Mahachon Party. 
 
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEW CABINET - THAKSIN SAYS PLEASING 
FACTIONS NOT A FACTOR 
 
4.  (U)  March 2 or 4 are the tentative dates for the first 
session of Parliament.  March 8 is slated for election of the 
Parliamentary President, March 14 for appointment of the new 
Prime Minister, and March 18 for submission of a new Cabinet 
line-up to the King for approval.  In an important 
announcement on February 8, Thaksin said that he will not 
follow the traditional practice of assigning cabinet 
positions by faction quota.  A confident Thaksin told the 
press that the party has given him a free hand to assign 
Ministers from inside or outside the party.  Thaksin 
reportedly has told party leaders said that he will no longer 
tolerate factional infighting in TRT. 
 
5.  (SBU)  Comment:  Factional infighting has always been a 
problem in Thai politics, one generally accepted as a 
necessary evil.  If PM Thaksin intends to choose his new 
cabinet on merit rather than balancing off rival supporters, 
that would be regarded as a reform.  However, it remains an 
open question whether Thaksin's massive win and increased 
personal political stature will really allow him to dominate 
the political ambitions and rivalries of factions within his 
party.  Despite Thaksin's pronouncement, the TRT's Wang Bua 
Ban, Wang Nam Yen and Suwat factions will be pressing him to 
consider their political usefulness to him when he makes his 
selections. 
 
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BOYCE