US embassy cable - 05KINSHASA213

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000213 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, KDEM, CG 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PARTY SEES JAN. 14 STRIKE AS A VICTORY 
 
 
Classified By: Poloff Edward Bestic for Reasons 1.4 B and D 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  A UDPS political party official sees the 
January 14 general strike in Kinshasa as an indication of his 
party's renewed strength.  According to the official, Vice 
President Bemba approached UDPS leader Etienne Tshisekedi 
recently with an offer of political alliance, but Tshisekedi 
announced publicly he would wait until elections before 
committing to any partnership.  END SUMMARY. 
 
UDPS Sees Itself as Back in the Game 
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2. (C) Remy Masamba, secretary-general of the Union for 
Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) political party led by 
Etienne Tshisekedi, told poloff February 2 that until 
recently, the party was weak and could not successfully 
organize widespread civil unrest.  The general strike of 
January 14, noted an obviously pleased and proud Masamba, 
showed that the UDPS was back and could effectively shut down 
Kinshasa.  UDPS leaders are well aware that national 
elections cannot take place by June 30, he explained, but 
they will continue to insist upon this publicly in order to 
maintain pressure on the political class.  Masamba 
acknowledged the risk that popular anger, once released, 
could spin out of control, and expressed concern that if 
someone assassinated President Kabila or ousted him in a coup 
d'etat, "no one could predict" the outcome. 
 
No Coalition Partner Yet... 
--------------------------- 
3. (C) Masamba said Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba, leader 
of the Congo Liberation Movement (MLC), approached Tshisekedi 
recently with an offer of partnership in a future government. 
 So far, however, MLC proposals only envision Tshisekedi in 
the number-two slot, such as Vice President to Bemba's 
President if the Congo adopts a presidential system, or Prime 
Minister to Bemba's President if there is a semi-presidential 
system.  Masamba said a coalition with the competing People's 
Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) of President 
Joseph Kabila would be difficult because it would be hard to 
imagine the 72-year Tshisekedi agreeing to serve under 
someone less than half his age.  As for the Congolese Rally 
for Democracy (RCD-Goma), the UDPS no longer sees it as a 
viable partner because its leaders in Kinshasa have no 
authority over "those with guns" in the east.  The UDPS is 
not sure who does, but suspects Kigali is calling the shots. 
 
...But Tshisekedi Not Helping Matters Either 
-------------------------------------------- 
4. (C) Unfortunately, said Masamba, Tshisekedi himself is not 
helping attempts to build political alliances.  For example, 
the UDPS leader declared in a recent speech that his party 
would not contemplate an alliance with any other party at 
least until after elections, or after the first round of 
voting if the country adopts a two-round presidential 
election system. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
5. (C) Civil unrest--violent or not--has long been one of the 
UDPS' favored tactics.  Judging from Masamba's remarks, 
Tshisekedi's lieutenants appear to feel they have everything 
 
SIPDIS 
to gain and nothing to lose by tapping into popular anger and 
provoking further demonstrations.  Masamba's confidence in 
renewed UDPS strength arising from the January general 
strike, however, may be misplaced.  We believe many people 
stayed home largely because of fears of potential violent 
incidents rather than as an expression of support for the 
UDPS or any other party or cause.  As for alliances, aware of 
how little they got out of their 2002-2003 partnership with 
the RCD-Goma, Tshisekedi and his supporters are in no rush to 
sign on as anyone's junior partner--a tendency that is in 
keeping with Tshisekedi's own personal temperament.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
6. (U) Bujumbura minimize considered. 
MEECE