US embassy cable - 05SOFIA242

UNCLAS  SOFIA 000242 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, BU 
SUBJECT: BULGARIA RULING PARTY SEALS DEAL TO AVERT POLITICAL 
CRISIS 
 
Ref: (A) SOFIA 00228 (B) SOFIA 00217 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Bulgaria's ruling coalition signed 
February 7 a cooperation agreement with the New Time (NT) 
party that secured majority support for Simeon Saxe-Coburg 
Gotha's government in the upcoming no-confidence vote. 
Under the deal, the ruling party, its junior coalition 
partner, and the NT create a stable parliament for the PM's 
cabinet until the mid-2005 general elections.  The three 
liberal parties also agreed to form a coalition in the pre- 
election campaign.  The deal, if honored, averts a political 
crisis in Bulgaria.  The no-confidence vote will still take 
place, likely on February 11.  While it is not yet clear 
whether a cabinet reshuffle is part of the eleventh-hour 
deal, an NT leader told us they will back the government 
even if their request for cabinet changes are not met.  The 
GOB's supportive policy on Iraq should be bolstered by this 
agreement.  END SUMMARY 
 
DEAL ENDS POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY? 
 
2.  (U) In the deal, the ruling National Movement for Simeon 
II (NMS) and its coalition partner, the predominantly ethnic 
Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), agreed to 
accept the centrist New Time as an equal partner in the 
coalition.  The three liberal groups also pledged to unite 
their efforts during the upcoming campaign with a goal of 
securing "a new term for a liberal government".    "This 
deal will allow the government to fulfill its program, which 
is extremely important for our society, and for Bulgaria's 
image abroad, especially in Brussels," Saxe-Coburg told 
reporters.  He was referring to the planned signing of 
Bulgaria's EU pre-accession treaty on April 25th, which, 
according to government officials and analysts might have 
been delayed by a political crisis. 
 
3. (U) The political turmoil began last week after five 
opposition groups from both sides of the political spectrum, 
including NT, tabled a motion of no confidence in the 
government.  It continued on February 4 when the National 
Assembly ousted Chairman Ognyan Gerdjikov (Refs A and B). 
The deal, which secures a majority of 131 seats in the 240- 
seat chamber, ensures the political future of the NT which 
was formed by reformist NMS defectors last year. 
 
RESHUFFLE STILL POSSIBLE 
 
4. (SBU) "The agreement puts an end to political uncertainty 
and allows the government to rely on a stable parliamentary 
majority", NT Parliamentary Group Chairman Miroslav 
Sevlievski told us.  He confirmed NT would back the cabinet 
and reject the upcoming no-confidence motion.  Sevlievski 
also told the Embassy that the stabilized coalition would 
continue to support the U.S. in Iraq.   Also, contrary to 
public statements, support for the government would not 
depend on whether Saxe-Coburg meets NT's requests for a 
government reshuffle.  Sevlievski told us that while NT 
would like to get ministerial chairs in the incumbent 
government, this would not be a deal-breaker either.  NT is 
looking for their future survival.  "[The deal] is about a 
long-term partnership with a view of forming the next 
liberal government", Sevlievski told us.  He reiterated that 
NT's maneuvers were aimed at securing the political future 
of NT leaders in the June elections and was not intended to 
take down the government. 
 
5. (SBU) COMMENT: The agreement between the three parties 
makes it more likely that the government will survive until 
the summer general elections.  Whether the coalition lasts 
through the elections is another issue.  The fate of Deputy 
PM and Minister of the Economy Shuleva remains uncertain. 
Her actions surrounding a major privatization sparked the 
crisis but her relationship with the PM appears to remain 
intact.  Much can still happen in the four days before the 
no confidence vote, but the PM's government is much more 
secure after the signing of this agreement than it was last 
week. 
 
6. (U) Distribution of seats in parliament: 
 
*National Movement for Simeon II                       98 
Coalition for Bulgaria (Socialists)                    49 
United Democratic Forces (Ivan Kostov)                 28 
*Movement for Rights and Freedoms                      20 
Union of Democratic Forces (Nadezhda Mihailova)        14 
People's Union                                         11 
*New Time                                              13 
Independent                                            7 
 
*Coalition partners