US embassy cable - 05ANKARA703

UNCLAS ANKARA 000703 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
USDOE FOR CHUCK WASHINGTON 
USDOC FOR 4212/ITA/MAC/OEURA/CPD/DDEFALCO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EPET, ENRG, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: BP SAYS TNK-BP LOOKING AT BULGARIA-GREECE 
PIPELINE 
 
REF: ANKARA 566 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: According to Turkey's BP rep, TNK-BP and 
other Russian companies are taking a serious look at the 
proposed Burgas-Alexandropolos Bosphorus bypass oil pipeline. 
 The company is concerned that Turkey might misunderstand 
BP's role, which was the result of heavy pressure on TNK-BP 
from the Russian Government, but the company has made no firm 
decisions at this point.  Given Russian companies' key role 
in potential bypass solutions, this is a positive step, but 
Turkey may be sensitive to perceived threats to competing 
projects on its own soil.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) In a February 4 meeting with EconCounselor and 
Energy Officer, BP Istanbul Manager Mike Bilbo said that 
TNK-BP was taking a serious look at the Burgas-Alexandropolos 
(Bulgaria to Greece and the Aegean Sea) Bosphorus bypass oil 
pipeline project.  Bilbo said that the Russian Ministry of 
Energy had "convoked" TNK-BP to host a planning meeting on 
January 27 with representatives from Transneft, Lukoil, 
Rozneft, and Gazprom.  Bilbo said that the MOE had "assigned" 
TNK-BP the role of executing the technical/economic 
feasibility study for the potential project.  Concerned that 
Turkey might misunderstand BP's role, Bilbo had come Ankara 
to explain to GOT officials that TNK-BP was therefore taking 
a serious look at the project, albeit via this unusual 
Russian heavy hand.  He stressed that there was not 
commitment or firm decisions at this point.  According to 
Bilbo, the participating Russian companies showed serious 
interest.  He believed that Transneft no longer supported the 
trans-Trace project through Turkey, whose egress would not be 
far away in the Aegean Sea (and which "copy-cat'ed" the route 
of the Thrace Development Company proposed pipeline.) 
 
3.  (SBU) Bilbo shared the TNK-BP notes from the meeting and 
copies of the Memorandum of cooperation (November 2004) and 
the preliminary Protocol signed by the Bulgarian, Greek, and 
Russian Governments.  Copies of these will be provided 
separately to the Department. 
 
4.  (SBU) The BP rep also confirmed that the Turkish portion 
of the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline (BTC) would be 
finished third quarter 2005.  He noted that BP and GOT were 
arguing about who would cover $200-300 million of cost 
over-runs.  Bilbo expected that they would find an 
arrangement that would avoid invoking the Turkish Treasury 
guarantee; i.e., BP would likely fund the cost overruns. 
 
5.  (SBU) COMMENT: Russia has always been identified as the 
key to a Bosphorus bypass solution, as Russian companies 
control a large portion of oil currently shipping through the 
Bosphorus, but it is too early to name a winner.  Both 
Turkey's "Voluntary Principles" and the proposed projects 
solely transiting its territory could be overtaken by reality 
on the ground.  But the waters in the straits remain murky 
and the fat lady hasn't yet sung in the Bosphorus bypass 
"great game."  End Comment. 
EDELMAN