US embassy cable - 05KINSHASA208

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000208 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2015 
TAGS: MARR, PGOV, PINS, CG 
SUBJECT: TENSIONS ESCALATING WITHIN CONGOLESE MILITARY IN 
SOUTH KIVU 
 
 
Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.4 b/d. 
 
 1. (C)  Rumors reached Kinshasa February 4 that "large 
numbers" of Mai Mai are massing near Bukavu in South Kivu and 
threatening to attack the city.  PolCouns spoke February 5 
and 6 to Defense Minister Adolphe Onasumba, presidential 
staffer Mulegwa (currently in Bukavu) and Senior Presidential 
Advisor Augustin Katumba about the situation.  All confirmed 
that there has been a serious rupture between regional 
military commander Mbusa Mabe and leading Mai Mai commanders 
over the issue of salaries, Mabe's arrest of two Mai Mai 
commanders, and Mabe's disparaging of Mai Mai military 
capability.  Mulegwa, who was sent to Bukavu February 1 to 
try to calm the situation, said that the Mai Mai have 
established their base in Karebe (a town about 30 kilometers 
from Bukavu), and he met with them there February 3 to try to 
dissuade them from taking further action.  He failed to do 
so, he said, in large part because "tempers are running high." 
 
2. (C)  Onasumba said that the MOD estimates there are about 
1,000-1,200 Mai Mai currently in the hills surrounding the 
road linking Bukavu to the airport.  According to him, the 
Mai Mai are being assisted by some elements of the MLC troops 
stationed in Bukavu, who may be giving the Mai Mai food and 
encouragement.  The Mai Mai have sent an ultimatum to the 
governor's office in Bukavu calling for the immediate removal 
of Mabe and the immediate payment of salary arrears, and 
threatening to attack the city if their demands are not met 
within forty-eight hours.  Katumba said that President 
Kabila's eastern advisor, Marcellin Shikembo, will go to 
Bukavu February 7, carrying a letter from Kabila, to try to 
negotiate the Mai Mai out of their current positions.  The 
Supreme Defense Council might meet February 7 in Kinshasa to 
debate possible solutions to this latest military problem in 
South Kivu, and Katumba said that Kabila is seriously 
considering ordering Mabe's immediate removal, not only 
because of this situation but because of Mabe's "political 
activities." 
 
3. (C)  Comment:  Onasumba's assertion that the Mai Mai are 
being aided and abetted by MLC troops seems disingenuous at 
best.  Given that Mabe himself -- and his deputy -- both are 
from Equateur, it is unlikely that the MLC troops who, by all 
accounts have been quite well treated in Bukavu, would be 
helping Mai Mai rebel against Mabe.  If indeed some "regular" 
military elements are in league with the Mai Mai they almost 
certainly are RCD-G troops (Onasumba represents the RCD-G), 
who consider that Mabe has been systematically discriminating 
against them by withholding pay and refusing to assign any 
RCD-G commanders to choice posts. Given Mai Mai volatility 
and lack of discipline, they certainly could be capable of 
attacking Bukavu but since they haven't already done so we 
believe they are more interested in negotiating than in 
burning bridges with Kinshasa, which is, after all, their 
best source of pay and recognition, including in the arena of 
possible military integration. 
 
4. (U) Bujumbura minimize considered. 
MEECE