US embassy cable - 05LILONGWE117

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LILONGWE 000117 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR AF/S, INR/AA 
USAID FOR AFR/SA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EAID, KMCA, MI, Cabinet, Political, President 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT RESIGNS FROM OWN PARTY, RESHUFFLES 
CABINET 
 
REF: LILONGWE 105 
 
1.  Summary: In a dramatic move, President Bingu wa 
Mutharika has resigned from his own party, making a 
definitive break with his predecessor, Bakili Muluzi.  In 
addition, Mutharika has fired two ministers and two deputy 
ministers and reshuffled his cabinet.  The actions are 
positive moves, both for Mutharika's fight against 
corruption and for his effort to strengthen his cabinet.  It 
is also a positive sign for continued progress on the 
Millennium Challenge.  End summary. 
 
A Surprise Announcement 
----------------------- 
 
2. President Bingu wa Mutharika has resigned from his own 
party, the United Democratic Front (UDF), after months of 
wrangling with the party chairman, former president Bakili 
Muluzi.  Mutharika made the surprise announcement at the 
conclusion of a formal speech at Malawi's National Anti- 
Corruption Day on February 5, attended by the Charge and 
USAID program development officer. 
 
3. Concluding his formal remarks, the president said that he 
had "two important announcements to make."  He first 
clarified some information about his cabinet reshuffle.  He 
then began to speak in a conversational tone, without notes, 
about the difficulties he faced within the UDF in trying to 
enact his policies.  He lamented that "my party, the UDF, 
has relentlessly fought against me because of my stance on 
corruption."  He reminded the audience that a senior UDF 
official had recently admitted to ballot tampering during 
the last general election, which demonstrated, the president 
said, that the UDF condones corruption.  He asked 
rhetorically whether the head of state should continue to be 
associated with such a party.  Noting that his own personal 
reputation was at stake, the president said that he had 
"painfully decided" to leave the party and declared that 
"effective today, I am no longer a member of the UDF." 
 
4. The effect of the announcement in the room was 
electrifying.  Almost everyone in the audience, except for 
the foreign diplomats, instantly leapt to their feet and 
began cheering and clapping.  The UDF singers and drummers 
(present at every such event) immediately launched into a 
noisy serenade.  Ministers slapped each other on the backs 
and were clearly delighted by the news.  In an emotional 
scene, several ministers mobbed the president as he 
descended the stage, pumped his hand and offered their 
congratulations.  Home Affairs minister Uladi Mussa, who was 
unceremoniously dumped from his UDF position by Muluzi 
earlier in the week, lunged forward and gave Mutharika a 
most un-presidential bear hug.  The news was clearly a 
surprise to many of the ministers, although a quick glance 
around the room showed that certain key advisors had known 
what was coming. 
 
Decisive Break with Muluzi 
-------------------------- 
 
5. In making the announcement, Mutharika once and for all 
drew a clear ethical line between himself and Muluzi.  His 
formal speech (to be reported septel) was a very strong 
condemnation of corruption, in which he promised to punish 
those in the previous government who were responsible for 
corrupt practices.  The decision to make his announcement at 
this event was a politically astute move that clearly 
labeled Muluzi as part of the corruption camp. 
 
6. Mutharika first hinted at this label in a televised 
address to the nation several weeks ago, in which he 
speculated that Muluzi was opposing him because of the anti- 
corruption campaign.  But until Saturday's speech, Mutharika 
had not publicly painted the entire Muluzi camp of the UDF 
as a faction for continuing Muluzi's system of patronage and 
corruption. 
 
Cabinet Reshuffle Strengthens Lineup 
------------------------------------ 
 
7. The previous night, Mutharika's office announced his 
first cabinet reshuffle.  Two ministers, Lilian Patel 
(labor) and Chakufwa Chihana (agriculture) lost their jobs, 
along with two deputy ministers.  Patel and Chihana were 
widely seen as the weakest in the cabinet, with the latter a 
particular liability.  An elderly man who seemed to have 
limited interest in the job, Chihana's disengagement is 
partly the reason for the government's less-than-successful 
fertilizer subsidy program.  Chihana was such an obvious 
liability that his party, the Alliance for Real Democracy 
(AFORD), had recently voted to expel him.  Patel, once 
foreign minister in the previous government, was seen as a 
Muluzi loyalist and a weak leader. 
 
8. The new agriculture minister is Gwanda Chakuamba, an 
experienced MP and former minister who is leader of the 
Republican Party.  The post is absolutely critical, and the 
portfolio had been adrift since the beginning of this 
administration.  Chakuamba's appointment will be positively 
viewed by donors and the agriculture industry.  The other 
new face in the ministerial lineup is Martin Kansichi, 
president of the Malawi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, 
who will take up the job of Minister of Trade and Private 
Sector Development.  Kansichi's appointment will likely be 
applauded by the business community, and will significantly 
strengthen that portfolio. 
 
 
Bingu to Form a New Party? 
-------------------------- 
 
9. While there had been speculation in the press for several 
weeks that Mutharika might exit the UDF and form his own 
party, the president and his close associates consistently 
denied any desire to leave, and they continued to have 
discussions with Muluzi's followers.  Only last Friday the 
Minister of Education, who had led Mutharika's negotiating 
team, was quoted as saying that he hoped that renewed 
discussions with Muluzi would take place soon.  However, 
Mutharika was known to have been quietly sounding out 
coalition partners about their allegiances in the event of a 
split.  It is clear now that he was using these discussions 
to negotiate deals to include more third-party leaders in 
his cabinet. 
 
10. The president has made no pronouncements about his 
intentions for a new party.  He did drop one hint at the 
event, saying to his supporters who were wearing the 
trademark UDF yellow color that they should "continue to 
wear yellow until we find you another color."  Mutharika's 
plans for any new party will be complicated by Parliament's 
rule against "aisle crossing."  Under the rule, MPs elected 
under a party banner may declare themselves independents, 
but if they switch parties, they automatically lose their 
seats.  This suggests that Mutharika cannot form a strong 
new party, but rather will resort to building a stronger 
coalition.  Now that he has cut himself free from the UDF, 
the absence of a "ruling party" may make it easier to build 
a stronger and more inclusive coalition government. 
 
11. Continuing the trend reported reftel, Mutharika picked 
up more prominent support on February 4, when veteran 
politician Aleke Banda, leader of the People's Progressive 
Movement, announced that he would henceforth support the 
president.  Banda also announced that his party had dropped 
a lawsuit that was challenging the results of the election 
that brought Mutharika to power.  Aleke Banda is a respected 
figure who held important ministerial posts under Hastings 
Banda, and his support will particularly help Mutharika in 
Banda's home region of northern Malawi. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
12. (SBU) Bingu's weekend announcement has given him a 
decisive boost in political momentum, and perhaps enough to 
put an end to the Muluzi faction's real participation in 
government.  By choosing his own time and place, and by 
choosing to frame the split as a matter of escaping Muluzi's 
corrupt cronies, Mutharika has effectively declared himself 
the winner in the battle against Muluzi.  Muluzi mistakenly 
saw this as a battle for the party, whereas Mutharika saw it- 
- correctly, in our view-- as a battle for control of the 
government.  The UDF defections are likely to continue, 
leaving Muluzi without the supporters or the government 
connections to fund his patronage system.  By aligning with 
the President, Ministers, parliamentarians and other 
officials can demonstrate their commitment to reducing 
corruption, and perhaps disentangle themselves from the 
political trap that Muluzi may become. 
 
13. (SBU) Perhaps more importantly, Mutharika has taken 
control of the political high ground.  He has succeeded in 
positioning himself as a break from the politics of self- 
interested factions.  He has set a clear direction for his 
administration, centered on economic growth, and he has 
successfully reached outside his party for support.  He is 
in a strong position to create a working coalition in 
Parliament and to breathe a sense of common purpose into the 
government bureaucracy. 
 
14. (SBU) The move is also positive signal for Malawi's 
aspirations for the Millennium Challenge.  It reaffirms the 
GOM's direction and aligns well with the international 
community's sense of what most needs to be done: clean up 
corruption, and restore fiscal responsibility.  In this 
case, creating a viable MCA program will be less a matter of 
defining the program's direction than of finding 
opportunities to help the GOM advance in the direction it 
already has set out. 
GILMOUR