US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK955

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000955 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV, INR; PACOM FOR FPA HUSO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, TH, Elections - Thai 
SUBJECT: CHAT THAI ELECTION PROSPECTS GOOD IN CENTRAL 
THAILAND 
 
REF: A. BANGKOK 954 
 
     B. BANGKOK 953 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Clarke.  Reason:  1.5 (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary. Chat Thai (CT) almost certainly will win all 
six parliamentary seat contests in Suphan Buri province in 
the February 6 election, although CT Leader Banharn 
Silpa-archa's son faces a formidable Thai Rak Thai (TRT) 
candidate.  The effects of years of Banharn's ability to 
deliver "pork" is visible in infrastructure projects 
throughout his home province, and his political influence 
there, extending to his family and allies, seems almost 
unchallenged. Chat Thai officials believe that the party's 
total number of Members of Parliament (MP) from this election 
could reach 35, a drop from the current level (41). They 
remain uncertain that PM Thaksin would invite CT to join a 
coalition if TRT wins enough parliamentary seats for a 
single-party government.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) On the road from Bangkok to Suphan Buri, car 
passengers immediately note a physical and audible change as 
they cross into the Central Region province on which Chat 
Thai leader Banharn Silpa-archa has lavished his attention 
for over 30 years.  Vehicles glide smoothly and silently 
along a seamless four-lane highway of a quality probably 
found nowhere else in Thailand.  Visitors soon learn that 
good roads are only one example of conspicuous infrastructure 
underlying why Suphan Buri province remains "Banharn 
country," the political stronghold of the former prime 
minister.  Banharn, his son Varawut, his daughter Kanjan, and 
several Banharn lieutenants are expected to win all six of 
the province's parliamentary constituency seats on February 6. 
 
CONSTITUENCY 3 -- CT INCUMBENT CONFIDENT 
 
3. (C) Nuttavood Prasertsuvan, a personable two-term Chat 
Thai MP from Constituency 3, explained to poloff on February 
3 why he expects to win again.  He said he had tended all 
year to the needs of his constituents.  He lent them money 
for emergencies, and attended weddings, funerals and other 
important events in their lives, thereby meeting the most 
important expectations they had of him.  For this campaign he 
visited every home in the Constituency.  He reeled off the 
statistics:  there are 104,410 eligible voters in a 
population of 138,315 in his area, and all of them would have 
had some contact with him when they entered the 205 polling 
stations in Constituency 3 on election day.  They would also 
remember, he said, that he had consistently delivered 
tangible benefits in the form of markets, buildings, ponds 
and other infrastructure under the tutelage of Banharn. As a 
result, within the memory of voters, life had improved and 
the farmers producing shrimp and rice (mainly for export to 
Africa and the Middle East) had prospered.  Nuttavood 
commented that he had been a good MP on the House Committee 
on Consumer Protection, but this achievement was the one his 
constituents least cared about. 
 
4. (SBU) Asked about his opponents, Nuttavood said that Thai 
Rak Thai (TRT) and the Democrat Party (DP) had both fielded 
candidates against him.  He characterized them as "weak and 
under-funded," their primary function in the race being to 
publicize their parties so some Suphan Buri voters might 
favor them in the "party list" vote.  Nuttavood said that TRT 
and CP had a presence in all six Suphan Buri contests, but 
Mahachon (MCP) was not running candidates because of an 
agreement between Banharn and MGen Sanan Khachonprasat, the 
Mahachon financier and power broker.  These veteran 
politicians had agreed to husband resources and not compete 
against each other in constituencies where one party or the 
other looked strong.  Nuttavood reported no violence and 
little vandalism in his local campaign.  His main concern was 
making sure that he did not do anything that might be seen as 
a violation of the electoral rules and earn him a 
disqualifying "red card" from the Electoral Commission (EC). 
 
CONSTITUENCY 1 -- THE MALE SCION CHALLENGED 
 
5. (U) Poloff visited Varawut Silpa-archa, the only son of 
Banharn, at the new provincial Chat Thai headquarters set in 
downtown Suphan Buri (the capital town).  Varawut led a tour 
of the building, which was well-staffed, well-equipped and 
had the bustling air of an efficient corporate office.  The 
headquarters has an office and bedroom for Banharn, and two 
extra bedrooms "for MPs who work so late they have to sleep 
over."  In Varawut's campaign "operations room," he reviewed 
large maps showing the 197 polling stations and voter lists 
for the 107,978 eligible voters in Constituency 1. 
 
6. (C) Varawut was energetic and nervous.  In his 
British-accented English (picked up from high school and 
university years spent in the UK), he explained that, of all 
six Suphan Buri CT candidates, he was the only one who faced 
a real challenge.  His TRT opponent is Pridee Charoensin, a 
police officer and former TRT party list MP (who was 74th on 
TRT's 2001 list, but moved up when higher-ranked allies of PM 
Thaksin were picked for cabinet positions).  Pridee is from a 
family with long rivalries with the Silpa-archa family.  He 
has strong financial backing from TRT with which, Varawut 
alleged, Pridee has been attempting to buy votes, a common 
electoral practice which Varawut said he did not himself use. 
 Varawut said that Pridee was running an active "dirty" 
campaign and even trying to use Banharn's reputation as a 
builder against him by telling vendors in markets that 
Banharn would tear down their area to make way for new 
construction. 
 
7. (C) In addition to last minute vote buying, Varawut 
expressed concern that Pridee might bring in military 
personnel from outside to intimidate voters.  This had not 
happened, but he said his people were alert to the 
possibility.  Varawut claimed that PM Thaksin himself was 
behind the support for Pridee because of the strong 
psychological and symbolic blow  a defeat of Banharn's son 
and political heir would deliver to Chat Thai.  He said his 
defeat might be possible, and he would accept it, but in fact 
he believed that Thaksin had underestimated him as "just 
another rich kid returning to his father's bailiwick after 
years of studying abroad."  In fact, Varawut said proudly, he 
is very much his father's son in politics, had worked hard 
with voters to dispel any playboy image, and expected to 
"kick ass" on February 6.  Ultimately, he said, Suphan Buri 
voters knew how much his father was still delivering to them 
with his knowledge of how to maneuver in the government 
bureaucracies and obtain construction budgets.  They 
appreciated the Silpa-archa family's use of it own money, 
funneled through a private foundation, to fund public 
projects and upkeep.  Thirty years ago, local people used the 
river to travel to Bangkok and now dusty roads had been 
transformed into multi-lane highways, and Suphan Buri had 
parks, museums, colleges.  Varawut said most voters 
understood that he would carry on his father's tradition.  He 
boasted that, given four more years in office, "no opponent 
will get a single vote against me." 
 
ELECTORAL CHANCES OUTSIDE SUPHAN BURI 
 
8. (SBU) Asked about Chat Thai's chances for MP seats outside 
the likely 6 from Suphan Buri province, Varawut commented 
that the campaigning style elsewhere was different, money was 
often more important, and it depended on how CT candidates 
used his father.  In An Thong and other nearby Central Region 
provinces, the appeal of Banharn's reputation was strong and 
perhaps 10-12 seats would be won.  In the North, where there 
are CT incumbents, as many as 6-8 seats might remain in the 
party's control. The Northeast might yield 2-3 seats and in 
Bangkok, if the TRT candidate is disqualified for false 
educational credentials (which he apparently has been), the 
CT candidate will win.  Combined with party list seats, Chat 
Thai could have about 35 representatives in the next 
Parliament, which would be a drop but still a good showing, 
he said. 
 
9. (SBU) Varawut said that it was unclear whether Thaksin 
would keep CT in the ruling coalition if TRT won enough seats 
to form a government on its own.  Losing access to the 
coalition would not matter, he said, because CT would survive 
as it always has in its long history of going from the 
opposition to governing, to even being labeled as an "evil" 
party.  He added that CT would never merge its identity into 
TRT, as other parties had done, even if it were reduced to 
just him, his father and sister. 
 
ELECTION COMMISSION 
 
10. (SBU)  At the Suphan Buri Electoral Commission (EC), two 
commissioners, the EC director and several staffers were 
sanguine that the election would go smoothly.  They had 
received only a few complaints and were investigating them. 
No violence had occurred and the few small cases of vandalism 
were mostly attributed to unintentional tearing of posters. 
The EC representatives said they had sponsored a year-long 
civic education program on voting and hoped to have raised 
the voter turnout to over 70 percent (as compared to 67 
percent in the 2001 national election).  They also expected 
that their efforts would lower the number of spoiled ballots. 
 In 2001, there had been 80 thousand spoiled party list 
ballots and 40 thousand spoiled constituency ballots. 
 
11. (C) Comment:  There is something to the CT candidates' 
claims that Banharn's role as master builder of Suphan Buri 
still commands the loyalties of local voters.  This does not 
change the fact that Banharn also has a long record of use of 
money to bribe officials and further his political career (to 
the point of being known as "Mr. ATM").  No matter how much 
he pocketed for himself, Banharn has never forgotten his 
province.  Suphan Buri really is one of the brightest and 
cleanest, most attractive towns in Thailand.  The wide roads 
have center dividers beautified with flowers and no litter. 
All the government agency offices are located in one large 
compound, offering "one stop shopping" probably not found 
elsewhere.  Ordinary citizens with whom poloff spoke all 
forthrightly expressed support for Banharn and Chat Thai. 
Several mentioned the parks he had built, including the 
beautiful one around Suphan Buri Tower, an impressive space 
needle-like structure, the highest in town, from which one 
can admire other projects, like the stadium.  Poloff also saw 
hundreds of students enjoying themselves at Banharn's 
favorite project (which he inspects every Sunday), the Bueng 
Chawahk Marine Park, a well-stocked aquarium in a public area 
which also features a vegetable garden, a zoo and crocodile 
farm, all maintained by the individual government agencies 
that Banharn ensured would take responsibility for them.  All 
this seems to secure the Chat Thai hold on Suphan Buri, but 
it is less certain that CT's influence beyond Banharn's home 
province will survive even as well as in Varawut's 
circumspect scenario.  End Comment. 
BOYCE