US embassy cable - 05LAGOS165

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000165 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W, DRL, INR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2015 
TAGS: KDEM, NI, PGOV 
SUBJECT: DECEPTION AND DEFECTION IN NIGERIA'S SOUTHERN 
PARTY POLITICS 
 
REF: A. 04 LAGOS 2513 
     B. 04 LAGOS 2592 
     C. ABUJA 48 
 
Classified By: Acting Consul General Ronald Kramer per 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY:  Recent developments in the southern 
political landscape highlight internal power struggles and 
the weakening of political parties.  Succession battles scar 
the dominant People's Democratic Party (PDP) and factions 
within the PDP in both Edo state and Anambra state are 
unwilling to compromise.  The largely southwestern opposition 
party, the Alliance for Democracy (AD), is at risk of losing 
Lagos, the last state in its control.  Public confidence has 
eroded in the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) over 
its failures in Anambra State to uphold the democratic 
process.  A sense of public uncertainty underscores political 
preparations for the 2007 elections.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------------------- 
PDP Power Struggle in Edo State 
-------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) The battle over who becomes the next governor of Edo 
state has split the Edo State chapter of the Peoples 
Democratic Party into two contending factions.  The battle 
pitches Governor Lucky Igbinedion and his father, Gabriel 
Igbinedion, a PDP chieftain, against PDP's Board of Trustees 
Chairman Tony Anenih and former military governor Samuel 
Ogbemudia.  Anenih and Ogbemudia want the next governor of 
the state to come from their zone, the Edo central senatorial 
district, since the other two zones in the state produced the 
present governor and his deputy.   Governor Igbinedion and 
his supporters insist that the contest should be open to all 
zones in the state. 
 
3. (C) Anenih and Ogbemudia are staunch Obasanjo loyalists 
while Governor Igbinedion, like most PDP Governors, is a 
close associate of Vice President Atiku.  The Edo crisis is 
widely regarded as yet another source of friction between the 
Obasanjo and Atiku camps.  An Edo state government official 
told Poloff that the national polarization of factions within 
the PDP is further complicating matters at the state level. 
Both factions have vested interests in who becomes the next 
governor.  Anenih is supporting three of his close loyalists 
in the hope that one of them will eventually succeed. 
Governor Igbinedion wants either Mike Oghiadomhe, his deputy, 
or Osagie Ise-Iyamu, one of his senior advisors, to succeed 
him. 
 
4. (U) Unwilling to compromise, the two factions are engaged 
in a running battle that has further split the party.  In 
early December, the Anenih faction established a parallel 
party secretariat and selected a parallel party executive. 
The official party secretariat is located on Governor 
Igbinedion's private property.  The Anenih camp said it no 
longer felt comfortable with the location where its loyalists 
have been kidnapped and subject to violent attacks.  In 
mid-December, the governor's faction responded by suspending 
Anenih, Ogbemudia, and many of their supporters from the 
party.  Governor Igbinedion also replaced all known Anenih 
loyalists holding positions in his government.  Shortly 
thereafter, the PDP national headquarters overruled the 
suspension and Anenih and his supporters regained their 
membership status. 
 
5. (U) In late December, President Obasanjo invited the 
principal actors in the Edo State dispute to Abuja for a 
peace meeting.  Obasanjo then directed all the feuding 
factions to meet on December 27 to further consolidate the 
peace initiative.  This meeting never took place.  President 
Obasanjo again held separate meetings with leaders of the two 
factions in early January.  Both factions agreed to 
reconcile, however there has been no visible progress. 
 
---------------------- 
INEC Fails in Anambra 
---------------------- 
 
6. (U) The senate has finally sworn in Chief Ben Obi as 
representative of the Anambra central senatorial district - a 
seat he won almost two years ago.  After senate testimony on 
February 2 by the chairman of the Independent National 
Electoral Commission (INEC) that confirmed Obi as the "duly 
elected senator", Obi was sworn in.  It marked the end of 
Obi's legal battle against INEC and Ikechukwu Abana, who has 
occupied the seat since 2003.  INEC's failures in Obi's 
case raised serious questions about its independence and its 
ability to conduct free and fair elections.  (Bio Note: Chief 
Ben Obi is a former advisor to President Obasanjo on national 
security and the former National Secretary of the All Nigeria 
People's Party). 
 
7. (U) INEC initially announced Obi the winner of the April 
12, 2003 Anambra senate election.  Shortly thereafter, INEC 
annulled the election and declared that Abana would be the 
next senate representative.  Abana had lost the election for 
governor and had never been nominated in the senate electoral 
process.  The Electoral Act does not give INEC the power to 
annul an election.  In the annulment and substitution of the 
elected winner, the INEC commissioner in Anambra state 
reportedly explained that they were merely acting on 
"directives from above". 
 
8. (C) In a meeting with Poloff, Obi said that this fiasco 
was "another June 12", alluding to the elections of 1993 that 
were annulled by former head of state Babengida.  Obi used 
the court system to protest the INEC decision.  Since the 
legal battle began, there have been 32 rulings and nine 
judgments, including from the Supreme Court, all in Obi's 
favor.  Obi confirmed that in January, he finally received 
the Sealed Certificate of Return from INEC, showing him as 
the rightful winner of the election.  (Comment: The erosion 
of public confidence in INEC must be addressed for it to have 
the legitimacy it needs to conduct the 2007 elections. End 
Comment). 
 
9. (U) In another development in the ongoing feud between 
Anambra Governor Chris Ngige and Chris Uba (Reftel A), the 
Anambra state committee investigating the crisis firmly 
rejected Uba's plea to be named deputy governor.  A report 
from the committee stated that this would only "aggravate the 
situation". 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Strife Within the Alliance for Democracy 
----------------------------------------- 
 
10. (U) The future is uncertain for the Alliance for 
Democracy (AD) party in Lagos State.  (Note: Lagos is the 
only one of seventeen southern states that is not controlled 
by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), though in many states 
the PDP is believed to have gained power fraudulently).  Four 
AD federal legislators from Lagos have recently defected to 
the rival PDP party.  The list includes Senator Musiliu 
Obanikoro, a close confidant of Lagos State Governor Ahmed 
Tinubu, and three other members of the House of 
Representatives.  Obanikoro is a prominent Senator from the 
Lagos Island district and was considered by some as Tinubu's 
likely successor.  His defection to the PDP has severely 
weakened the AD hold on Lagos State and might boost PDP 
chances to win the next governorship election in Lagos State. 
 Obanikoro has already announced that he will seek the PDP 
gubernatorial ticket in the 2007 election (Reftel B). 
 
11. (U) In its effort to halt the PDP assault, the Lagos AD 
has instituted a legal battle and initiated a recall process 
to regain the seats it lost to these defecting legislators. 
The party has filed four separate suits in a federal court to 
challenge the constitutionality of the legislators' action 
and reclaim its seats in the national assembly.  The 
legislators were all elected on an AD ticket.  The AD argues 
that in accordance with the constitution, when they changed 
parties, the legislators forfeited their seats. 
 
12. (C) Comment: With these defections, the AD risks losing 
Lagos, the last state that it controls, in the 2007 
elections.  (Note: The party lost five states to the PDP in 
the 2003 elections and the PDP already controls 28 of 
Nigeria's 36 states).  If the PDP had its internal conflicts 
under control, it could capitalize on the succession battles 
in the opposition parties.  However, fractures within the 
PDP, as evidenced in Anambra state, Edo state, and the forced 
resignation of PDP Chairman Ogbeh (Reftels), might further 
divide the party.  With party positioning for 2007 making 
daily headline news, the alignment of key individuals and 
power networks is far from determined.  End Comment. 
KRAMER