US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK954

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000954 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA HUSO. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, TH, Elections - Thai, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: ON THE EVE OF THAILAND'S GENERAL ELECTION: THE 
MAJOR PARTIES 
 
REF: BANGKOK 673 
 
1. (SBU)  At first glance the Thai political landscape on the 
eve of the February 6, 2005 parliamentary elections looks 
cluttered.  Thailand still has 39 registered political 
parties.  Twenty parties have fielded "party list" candidates 
and 24 parties are entered in some of the 400 contests for 
"constituency" seats in the Lower House of Parliament.  The 
reality, however, is that four major political parties hold 
virtually all seats in Parliament, and the ballots cast this 
Sunday won't radically alter that distribution.  Prime 
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party 
are tipped for a large scale victory, perhaps one that will 
allow them to govern without forming a coalition.    Most 
observers predict that the TRT will win well over 300 party 
list and constituency seats in Parliament.  The Democrat 
Party (DP) will remain the main opposition party but will 
fall far short of the 201 seats it has publicly set its 
sights on.  The Chat Thai (CT) and Mahachon parties, the 
other two credible parties, could pick up between 50 - 65 
seats according to the latest polls.  If TRT does not gain a 
sufficiently large margin on its own to reach PM Thaksin's 
comfort level, the Chat Thai and/or Mahachon parties are 
presumed to be available to join the TRT in a stronger 
governing coalition.  As described in reftel, The CT has been 
in the coalition of Thaksin's first government, and Mahachon 
has made clear its readiness to ally with whomever best 
satisfies the interests of its key members.  A primer on the 
four main Thai political parties follows: 
 
THAI RAK THAI (TRT) PARTY 
 
2. (U)  TRT's dominant leader is Prime Minister Thaksin 
Shinawatra, with TRT Secretary-General (and Transportation 
Minister) Suriya Jungrungruengkit in the role of key 
political operative.  TRT has more registered members, 14.4 
million, then any other party and its current parliamentary 
strength -- 329 MPs (266 Constituency and 63 Party-List MPs) 
-- overshadows all of its coalition partner and opponent 
parties.  Regionally, TRT members of Parliament (MP) are 
found in the great urban center of Bangkok, and the 
voter-rich rural provinces of the North and Northeast. 
 
3. (U) In his first term, Thaksin,s strong leadership and 
the TRT,s decisive majority in Parliament allowed him to 
implement the "populist" policies he articulated in his 
campaign for victory in 2001.  These policies -- especially 
the 30 baht Health Care scheme, the Farmers, Debt Suspension 
and Revitalization program, and the 1 million baht revolving 
Village and Community Fund -- have cemented his popularity 
with the rural electorate.  Despite opposition accusations of 
conflict-of-interest and corruption, and some setbacks from 
the avian flu scare and continuing violence in Thailand's 
south, Thaksin has maintained a high level of popular 
approval.  For this election, Thaksin has come up with new 
populist policies to run on, such as the so-called Small, 
Medium, Large village fund (SML) village improvement fund 
program, a large public works transportation project, and 
expansion of the country's irrigation water network in the 
rural areas.  As noted in earlier reporting, winning TRT 
parliamentary candidates are expected to return Thaksin to 
office handily.  Many observers believe the election is not 
about which party will win, but how wide the TRT majority 
will be after the votes are counted. 
 
4.  (U) Thaksin like to project an image of TRT, the party he 
founded, as modern and policy-oriented.  However, despite his 
clear dominance of TRT, he still has to balance off the 
interests of party factions to keep winning candidates in his 
corner and stay in fullest control of the party and national 
politics.  There are currently five major factions within the 
TRT: 
 
-- Wang Buaban is currently the largest and most influential 
faction.   It is led by Yowvapa Wongsawat, an MP from Chiang 
Mai and Thaksin's sister.   Other key Wang Buaban figures are 
Suriya Jungrungruengkit, TRT secretary-general, and Somsak 
Thepsutin, the TRT deputy leader.  Most faction members are 
MPs from the North, with some MPs from the Northeast. 
 
-- Wang Namyen is led by Sanoh Thienthong, a veteran 
politician and financier, who earned an unsavory reputation 
as an influential New Aspiration Party (NAP) figure.  He is 
chairman of the TRT advisory board.  Sanoh's faction is the 
second largest group with most, if not all, members coming 
from the Northeast.  It was once the most influential 
faction, but its influence has waned with the emergence of 
the Wang Buaban group.   Other leading figures in this 
faction are Sora-at Klinpratoom, the TRT deputy leader, and 
Chuchip Hansawat, an executive member and former Minister of 
Agriculture and Cooperatives. 
 
-- Wang Phayanak is the faction of mainly former Seritham 
party MPs who merged with the TRT in July 2001.   Pinij 
Jarusombat, the former leader of the Seritham party, now a 
TRT deputy leader, is the faction leader.   Prachuap 
Chaiyasan, a Thai trade representative, and Ekkaphap Polsue, 
TRT deputy secretary-general, are other key figures.  This 
faction has good relations with the Wang Buaban faction and 
been supportive in intra-party maneuvering. 
 
-- The "Chart Pattana" faction become part of TRT in an 
official merger between the Chart Pattana party (CP) into TRT 
in September 2004.   Suwat Liptapanlop, the wealthy former 
leader of CP, is this faction's leader.  Suwat's electoral 
stronghold is in the Northeast, especially in Nakhon 
Ratchasima, where his influence permeates every political 
level. 
 
-- The "Bangkok faction," comprised of TRT MPs from the 
capital city, is led by Sudarat Keyuraphun, the deputy 
leader.  This faction's influence also extends to some 
neighboring provinces.  PM Thaksin prizes Public Health 
Minister Sudarat Keyuraphan, the faction leader, for her 
political expertise and her opinion carries much weight in 
TRT councils.   Other key members are Suranand Vejjajiva, the 
clever and articulate TRT party spokesman, and Pimuk Simaroj, 
TRT deputy spokesman. 
 
5. (SBU) Major financial backers of TRT include the Shin Corp 
(owned by the Shinawatra family), the CP Corporation, and 
corporations run by Secretary General Suriya Chunrungruengkit 
and Deputy Leader Adisai Photharamik. 
 
DEMOCRAT PARTY (DP) 
 
6. (U)  The Democrat Party (DP), under the leadership of 
Banyat Bantadtan and DP Secretary General Pradit 
Phaktharaprasit, will likely remain as the main opposition 
party after the election.  DP has deep roots in modern Thai 
democratic history, a current registered membership of 3.8 
million, and a parliamentary strength of 128 MPs.  Its 
regional strength is in Bangkok and southern province 
constituencies.  In the last four years, the DP has had a 
decidedly difficult role - partly because the TRT-led 
majority coalition in the House of Representatives prevented 
DP from ever censuring the Prime Minister directly and even 
hampered its ability to open "no confidence" debates against 
ministers. 
 
7. (SBU) The DP has struggled to come up with new approaches 
to better confront Thaksin and the TRT, which seems to 
outflank and humiliate the Democrats at every term, which has 
given the DP an air of ineptitude.  Persistence of the bitter 
party rifts which have historically plagued DP have not 
helped.  A party split widened in 2003 when power broker MG 
Sanan Khachonprasat, who was banned in August 2000 from 
holding political posts himself for 5 years for asset 
concealment, collided with then DP party leader Chuan Leekpai 
over Chuan's successor.  Sanan,s faction won this conflict 
and put veteran southern politician Banyat Banthatthan in as 
the new DP leader, marginalizing Chuan's preferred heir, the 
young and charismatic Bangkokian Aphisit Vejjajiva.  In July 
2004, reportedly disgruntled over his failure to sufficiently 
influence Banyat, Sanan led several MPs out of the DP and 
established Mahachon, a new political party built on the 
remnants of the Rassadon (People's) Party of Watthana 
Atsawahem, a notoriously "dirty" politician. 
 
8. (SBU) The DP will probably be able to hang on to most of 
its traditional parliamentary seats in Thailand's South, and 
few constituencies elsewhere.  However, under the stodgy and 
uninspired leadership of Banyat, it has no chance of 
extending its base or beating TRT nationwide. 
 
CHAT THAI (CT) PARTY 
 
9. (SBU) The Chat Thai (CT) leader is Banharn Silapa-archa, a 
veteran Thai politician and former prime minister whose 
political savvy and money hold the party together.  CT has 
registered 2,340,000 members.  Its current parliamentary 
strength is 41 MPs (35 Constituency and 6 Party-List), with 
the core of its regional strength located in Thailand's 
Central region, especially in Suphan Buri province. 
 
10. (SBU) Chat Thai has downsized considerably since the 
Banharn-led administration left power in November 1996.  The 
almost immediate departure of most members of the Sanoh 
Thienthong faction (which later joined TRT) and other 
groupings of parliamentarians reduced the CT voting bloc 
significantly.  For a time, CT political influence was based 
on MPs from Suphan Buri and Chon Buri provinces.  Shortly 
before the January 6, 2001 parliamentary election, Newin 
Chidchob, an up-and-coming (some say "infamous") MP from 
Buriram, brought four MPs from the defunct Solidarity Party 
(SP) into CT.  But most of this Buriram faction, including 
Newin, succumbed to the blandishments of a persistent TRT 
courtship in 2004 of MPs from other parties.  Banharn also 
lost heavily from the Chon Buri faction and now presides over 
a CT that seems really only to have a safe hold on 
parliamentary constituencies in Supan Buri province.  That 
said, Banharn remains one of Thailand's most tenacious 
traditional politicians, a survivor who seems to know which 
wheels to grease to keep a political machine rolling 
effectively. 
 
MAHACHON PARTY (MCP) 
 
11. (U)  The only other party with prospects for winning a 
bloc of parliamentary seats is one of the newest, Mahachon 
(MCP), established in July 2004.  Mahachon began essentially 
as a breakaway faction of the Democrat Party (see para 7 
above).  Its nominal leader is Dr. Anek Laothammathat, a 
former Dean of Political Science at Thammasat University and 
ex-Deputy DP Leader.  Several other well-regarded DP MPs -- 
ex-Deputy DP Secretary General Akkhaphon Sorasuchat and ex-DP 
financier Phonthep Techaphaibun -- joined Mahachon as deputy 
party leaders.  Mahachon's chief financial backer is ex-DP 
Secretary General MG Sanan Khachonprasat, who plays a major 
 
SIPDIS 
behind the scenes role.  Other financial support reportedly 
is supplied by Chaliaw Yuwitthaya of the Red Guar Beverage 
Company, with some also coming from business tycoon Charoen 
Siriwatthanaphakdi of the giant CP group of companies, who 
generously bankrolls several parties and political power 
brokers. 
 
12. (U) One improbable theory circulating is that Mahachon 
was deliberately created as a branch of the DP, with a new 
name in order to improve the chances of regaining 
Northeastern voters, support.  Under this theory Mahachon 
candidates taking TRT districts in the Northeast will reunite 
with the DP in forming a new government.  The more realistic 
way of understanding Mahachon is that MG Sanan, unable to 
control Banyat, wanted to run a political party of his own 
for the wider political "opportunities" that could open.  He 
wishes to be in a position to be of value to any political 
party able to form a coalition government, in particular the 
ruling TRT of Thaksin. 
 
13. (U) Voters on February 6 will select 400 members of 
Parliament from constituencies throughout Thailand.  They 
will also indicate their preferences for parties in a 
separate "party list" vote.  All parties gaining 5 percent of 
the national party list vote will be eligible for a number of 
the 100 party list seats in the next Parliament, allocated on 
a proportional basis according to the votes received. 
 
14. (U) The latest polls indicate that TRT could win 260-280 
constituency seats, and up to 70 party list seats, or 
potentially close to 350 total seats in the 500 seat 
Parliament.  This indicates that TRT might be able to form a 
single-party government, one with no coalition partners.  The 
DP, with some support throughout Thailand, and retaining core 
constituencies in the South, should remain the main 
opposition party with just over 100 total MPs, including some 
75-80 constituency seats. Chat Thai, surprisingly, appears to 
heading for 30-35 constituency seats and maybe the minimum 5 
party list seats.  Mahachon could win between 10-16 
constituency seats, but is not expected to qualify for any 
party list seats.  Some polls indicate that a sitting 
candidate from the New Aspiration Party (NAP), the only 
holdout when NAP merged into TRT, will win his constituency. 
Candidates from two very small parties, the Social Action 
Party (SAP) and Labor Party, might also manage to win one 
constituency seat each. 
BOYCE