US embassy cable - 05ABUDHABI510

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 000510 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2015 
TAGS: ETTC, IR, IZ, KNNP, PARM, PK, TC 
SUBJECT: U/S BOLTON VISITS UAE 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michele Sison for Reasons 1.5(b) and (d) 
 
1. (S) Summary:  Under Secretary of State for Arms Control 
and International Security John Bolton met with UAE officials 
on January 31 to discuss the status of Iran,s nuclear 
weapons programs and to present future options for addressing 
the threat on the UAE,s doorstep, including referral to the 
U.N. Security Council.  UAEG officials were very supportive 
of continuing diplomatic efforts to eliminate the threat 
presented to the UAE, the region and the world by an Iranian 
nuclear weapons program.  Defense Minister/Dubai Crown Prince 
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid (MbR) strongly supported 
continuing diplomatic efforts, saying that any use of force 
against Iran would result in retaliation of one sort or 
another.  In addition, Dubai officials reported progress in 
closing down Iranian front companies located in Dubai that 
have assisted in the Iranian WMD acquisition programs. 
Minister of Information  Abdullah bin Zayed al Nahyan 
emphasized that 100% of other countries must join in applying 
pressure to Iran and that anything less would not result in a 
positive outcome.  Sheikh Abdullah also expressed concern 
that Iran could use its wealth and resources to &buy8 votes 
in the United Nations.  Both MbR and Sheikh Abdullah told U/S 
Bolton they were pleased that the elections in Iraq had 
proceeded as scheduled because this dealt a blow to the Iraqi 
insurgency.  End summary. 
 
MbR Urges Continued Pressure on Iran 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
2. (S) In a meeting with UAE Minister of Defense and Dubai 
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum (MbR), U/S Bolton 
expressed the USG,s grave concern about Iran,s nuclear 
weapons and ballistic missile development, stating that the 
USG believes the threat is sufficient to refer the matter to 
the UN Security Council, particularly if there is no progress 
on the diplomatic front over the next few months.  U/S Bolton 
stated that Iran has made a clear strategic decision to 
acquire nuclear weapons and that when Iran,s nuclear 
development is combined with their ballistic missile program, 
Iran,s assertion that their nuclear program is &purely 
civilian8 is not credible.  The Iranians, he continued, burn 
off as waste enough natural gas to replace the power that 
would be produced at four nuclear power plants the size of 
Bushehr.  In addition, Iranian scientists are conducting 
research into how to givethe Shehab missile a nuclear 
capability.  U/S Bolton also pointed out that there is broad 
concern in the international community, given Iran,s support 
for terrorist organizations, that Iran could make nuclear 
materials or nuclear weapons available to terrorist groups. 
MbR emphasized that the UAE is also concerned about Iran,s 
nuclear program but acknowledged that dealing with Iran is 
difficult.  The UAE has talked to the Iranians and he 
strongly advised that the international community continue to 
apply diplomatic pressure on Iran.  He said he did not think 
Iran would give up their enrichment program  without external 
pressure. 
 
3. (S) U/S Bolton pointed out that interdiction efforts, such 
as those through the Proliferation Security Initiative, are 
essential.  U/S Bolton told MbR that he appreciates the 
excellent cooperation of the UAE on interdiction of missile 
related shipments.  MbR responded that he is committed to 
continuing this cooperation on diversions of proliferation 
goods through Dubai, as well as cooperating on terrorist 
financing issues.  He cited recent interdictions involving 
shipments to Iran and Pakistan originating in China and 
Russia. 
 
4. (S) Dubai State Security Director Mohammed al Qamzi 
pointed out that it was not in the interest of Dubai to allow 
proliferation-related trade.  The UAE wants to pursue a 
nonproliferation agenda, he continued, but other countries in 
the region do not always appreciate these efforts.  Al Qamzi 
reported that the UAEG had identified approximately 15 
Iranian front companies that have been involved in 
transshipment of WMD related goods through Dubai.  The UAEG 
has closed down six of these companies and is working 
incrementally to close down the others.  The Iranians may 
have figured out what is going on, he said, because Dubai is 
beginning to see a reduction in such activities. 
 
5. (S) MbR praised the elections in Iraq, saying the vote 
dealt a setback to the terrorists.  He expressed concern 
about the non-participation of Sunni Muslims in Iraq, saying 
that if they do not come forward to participate in voting and 
governing, Iraq will never be safe. 
 
UAE Minister Voices UAE Concerns about Iran 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
6. (S) U/S Bolton also met with Minister of Information 
Abdullah bin Zayed al Nahyan, who hosted a luncheon in U/S 
Bolton,s honor in lieu of UAE Deputy Prime Minister/ 
Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sheikh Hamdan, who was 
out of the country.  U/S Bolton emphasized to Sheikh Abdullah 
that Iran,s assertion that its nuclear program is for civil 
power generation is not acceptable, again pointing out that 
Iran burns off enough natural gas to equal the power that 
would be produced by the equivalent of four Bushehr nuclear 
power plants.  Sheikh Abdullah was well aware that Iran has 
substantial oil and gas reserves, pointing out that in recent 
years Iran,s oil reserves have been revised upward from 89 
billion barrels to 128 billion barrels and that Iran,s 
natural gas reserves now stand at 940 trillion cubic feet. 
 
7. (S) U/S Bolton emphasized that this issue should not be 
characterized as the U.S. versus Iran but as Iran versus the 
rest of the world and asked for Sheikh Abdullah,s thoughts 
and ideas on how to deal with the nuclear weapons and 
ballistic missile programs in Iran.  Sheikh Abdullah said 
that Iran is very different from Iraq and acknowledged the 
challenge of dealing with Iran.  He remarked that the success 
in dealing with Libya,s nuclear ambitions was due in part to 
the multilateral sanctions imposed on Libya..  Sheikh 
Abdullah characterized the threat posed by Iran to the UAE as 
serious, saying that Iran could harm the national security 
interests of the U.S. but would destroy the UAE. 
 
8. (S) U/S Bolton told Sheikh Abdullah that it was possible 
that later in the spring the U.S. Security Council would have 
to take up the issue of Iran,s nuclear program if diplomatic 
efforts failed.  Sheikh Abdullah wondered if there was a 
precedent for the IAEA referring a country to the UN Security 
Council (to which U/S Bolton replied in the affirmative, 
citing Libya, Romania, and North Korea) and also wondered if 
a group other than the British, French and the U.S. would 
have more success in diplomatic efforts.  He expressed 
concern that Iran would use its wealth and enormous energy 
resources as a way to &buy8 votes in the UN.  Sheikh 
Abdullah said the only way forward was to put pressure on the 
other parties involved in Iran,s nuclear program (e.g., the 
Russians and the Chinese) to refrain from participating in 
the projects.  Sheikh Abdullah said he did not believe, 
however, that the international community could get a 
commitment from the Iranians that can be trusted. .  U/S 
Bolton passed Sheikh Abdullah two papers, one on &Options 
for dealing with Iran,s Nuclear Program in the UN Security 
Council8 and one listing &Unanswered Questions8 on the 
Iranian nuclear program. 
 
9. (S) Sheik Abdullah asked about the cooperation we were 
getting from Pakistan in halting their work with Iran.  U/S 
Bolton replied that the AQ Khan network had essentially been 
destroyed but there is concern some may still be out there, 
possibly including other customers.  U/S Bolton also said 
that it is important to continue to examine the AQ Khan 
network to ensure that we know as much as possible about what 
countries like Iran were able to obtain through the network. 
Ambassador expressed appreciation for the UAE,s past 
cooperation on the AQ Khan network and emphasized that we 
were looking forward to future cooperation so that we would 
know what the network transshipped through the UAE. 
 
10. (S) Sheikh Abdullah praised the Iraqi elections.  He had 
been very worried about the success of the elections but was 
glad to see they went well.  Sheikh Abdullah thought the 
voting turnout was a big blow for &Zarqawi and his thugs8, 
saying also that 90% of all registered Iraqi voters in the 
UAE cast their ballots.  He believed that most Iraqis who did 
not participate held back out of concerns for their safety. 
 
11. (U) U/S Bolton also met with print journalists in Abu 
Dhabi and granted an interview to Al Arabiya satellite 
television.  The questions and answers focused on Iran and 
Iraq. 
 
12. (U) U/S Bolton has cleared this cable. 
SISON