US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA263

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 000263 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
STATE FOR EB, INL, INR/AN/IAA, AND INR/B 
STATE PASS USTR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, ETRD, SNAR, KJUS, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES: LOBO IN DEAD HEAT 
WITH PASTOR IN NATIONAL PARTY; ZELAYA IN A LIBERAL CAKEWALK 
 
REF: A. 04 TEGUCIGALPA 
     B. 04 TEGUCIGALPA 2646 
     C. 04 TEGUCIGALPA 2635 
     D. 04 TEGUCIGALPA 1541 
 
Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Francisco Palmieri; 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  Less than three weeks before the February 
20 national primary elections, President of Congress Porfirio 
"Pepe Lobo, who has long trailed Tegucigalpa Mayor Miguel 
Pastor, drew close or even with Pastor in three recent 
national polls.  Lobo and Pastor's battle has become 
increasingly nasty, with exchanges of corruption charges. 
Lobo appears to have a structural advantage as the race 
enters its final days.  Meanwhile, in the quieter Liberal 
Party race, leading candidate Mel Zelaya has no close 
competition, and is poised to win.  End Summary. 
 
The Polls Agree - National Party Race a Dead Heat 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
2. (SBU) PolOffs have now seen three reliable, national 
polls, all of which show the National Party race between 
President of Congress Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo and Tegucigalpa 
Mayor Miguel Pastor as very close.  A January 28-29 private 
poll conducted nationally by Ingeneria Gerencial shows Pastor 
with a very small edge of 48.3 percent vs. 46.7 percent for 
Lobo, close to the margin of error.  A January 22-27 poll 
conducted by CID-Gallup has Pastor with a slightly larger 
lead of 47 percent vs. 41 percent for Lobo, with a 2.8 
percent margin of error.  A January 10-15 poll done by 
Demoscopia has Lobo with a slight lead 41.8 percent vs. 40.1 
percent for Pastor (with a margin of error of three percent). 
 
3. (SBU) Surprisingly, or perhaps not if you listen to his 
detractors, Pastor's biggest weakness is Tegucigalpa, where 
he has only 36 percent support as opposed to Lobo's 58 
percent, according to the Ingeneria Gerencial poll.  In the 
same poll, Pastor (47 percent) and Lobo (46 percent) are 
virtually tied in San Pedro Sula, with Pastor leading in 
rural areas and Atlantida, the department with the third most 
populous city, La Ceiba.  Lobo has a strong lead in his home 
department of Olancho and appears to be seeking to gain votes 
there to offset losses in other rural areas.  Given the 
historical importance of the vote in Tegucigalpa, Lobo's lead 
could pose a serious problem as Pastor would have to run 
extremely well in every other part of the country (save 
Olancho, Pepe's home base) in order to make up Lobo's likely 
victory margin in the capital city. 
 
4. (SBU) Lobo and Pastor's battle has become increasingly 
nasty, with exchanges of corruption charges and hints of Lobo 
having possible ties to narcotraffickers.  In a serious 
strategic effort to change the subject from crime, an issue 
that benefits Lobo greatly, Pastor blasted Lobo's campaign 
for numerous alleged connections to the "gasolinazo" scandal. 
 Lobo, in turn, used a Supreme Court of Accounts report 
concerning an audit of extravagant public relations 
expenditures by Pastor's mayoral office, to point a 
corruption finger at Pastor.  Ironically, Lobo used a "cadena 
nacional," a complete preemption of all television and radio 
broadcasting, to rebut Pastor's charges and criticize 
Pastor's use of public funds for pr.  President Maduro has 
weighed in to urge the two to scale back their attacks, but 
Maduro's defensive criticism of Pastor's corruption charges 
are seen by the Pastor campaign as establishment support for 
Lobo.  Maduro did, however, come out publicly against Lobo's 
pet idea, the death penalty, joining all the other major 
presidential candidates who also oppose it. 
 
Zelaya Maintains Commanding Lead Among Liberals 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
5. (SBU) Politician Mel Zelaya has a commanding lead in the 
Liberal Party race, with 52 percent, as compared to 21 
percent for Congressman/businessman Jaime Rosenthal and 13 
percent for economist Gabriela Nunez, according to the 
Ingeneria Gerencial poll.  Zelaya is equally strong in urban 
and rural areas.  In the CID-Gallup poll, Zelaya has 45 
percent, with 16 percent for Rosenthal and 11 percent for 
Nunez.  The Liberal Party race has effectively become a race 
for second between Rosenthal and Nunez. 
 
6. (SBU) Liberals and Nationalists have ridiculed Zelaya's 
recent poor showing on a key morning TV interview show, when 
he ducked all tough questions and made several misstatements 
later used by Nunez in the toughest TV ad of the Liberal 
race.  Politicians and pundits from across the spectrum in 
conversations with EmbOffs knock Zelaya as not being smart 
enough to be president.  However, this is apparently not a 
sentiment shared by people planning to vote in the Liberal 
Party primary as Zelaya shows no signs of slipping in the 
polls. 
 
Key Mayoral Races Too Close to Call 
----------------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) In Tegucigalpa, Lobo's mayoral candidate Ricardo 
Alvarez holds a small lead over Pastor's candidate Nasra 
"Tito" Asfura, 47 percent to 44 percent in the Ingeneria 
Gerencial poll, and leads 49 percent to 37 percent in the 
CID-Gallup poll.  Alvarez's pollster has him up 10-15 percent 
over Asfura.  In San Pedro Sula, Lobo's mayoral candidate 
Arturo "Tuky" Bendana is edging out Pastor's candidate (and 
incumbent mayor) Oscar Kilgore 43 percent to 40 percent in 
the Ingeneria Gerencial poll, while Kilgore has a small lead 
over Bendana 35 percent to 32 percent in the CID-Gallup poll. 
 Kilgore's pollster has the two in a dead heat.  On the 
Liberal side, in Tegucigalpa Rosenthal's candidate Eliseo 
Castro has a narrow lead over Zelaya's candidate Enrique 
"Kike" Ortez Sequeira 28 percent to 27 percent in the 
Ingeneria Gerencial poll, and a commanding lead of 33 percent 
to 14 percent in the CID-Gallup poll.  In San Pedro Sula, 
Zelaya's candidate Rodolfo Padilla Sunceri comfortably leads 
Rosenthal's candidate Harry Panting 37 percent to 24 percent 
in the Ingeneria Gerencial poll, and 34 percent to 14 percent 
in the CID-Gallup poll. 
 
Congressional Races Anyone's Guess 
---------------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) With congressional candidates running as 
individuals, but representing entire departments and not 
individual districts, there is little campaigning between 
candidates, other than emphasizing which potential 
presidential nominee the candidate supports.  Observers are 
unsure if congressional war-horses with relatively high name 
recognition (but questionable popular support) will win in 
the primaries.  With little polling done for individual 
congressional candidates, there are likely to be some 
significant surprises and upsets in the election results. 
 
Pastor and Lobo Deadlocked; Zelaya Certain to Win 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
9. (C) Comment:  The election will likely hinge on turnout, 
with a high turnout benefiting Pastor who has stronger 
support among young voters.  However, this is a risky 
strategy.  To paraphrase political consultant James Carville, 
there is a word for candidates whose strategy relies on young 
and new voters: losers.  In addition, with Pastor's weak 
support in Tegucigalpa, Lobo's strong upswing in the polls 
after the December 23, 2004 bus massacre of 28 people in San 
Pedro Sula, and Lobo's support from party stalwarts, Lobo has 
the inside track to win.  Lobo's "Work and Security" 
campaign, which has focused mostly on security, and whose 
symbol is a clenched fist, is clearly betting that fear will 
beat Pastor's "New Time" campaign that focused on hope 
(before turning to anti-corruption).  While Pastor has 
managed to staunch the bleeding with his tough attack on 
corruption, many observers comment that Pastor lacks the 
moral authority to champion transparency and good government. 
 Nevertheless, Pastor has effectively changed for the moment 
the topic from crime, a losing issue for him. 
 
10. (C) Comment continued: The bitter battle among 
Nationalists has led some observers to question whether or 
not the party can unite for a general election battle.  The 
Liberals, despite having twice as many presidential 
candidates, are clearly more united.  The only Liberal 
candidate who really appears to be trying to win (rather than 
just have a modicum of influence in the party) is Nunez, who 
has run hard-hitting ads.  At the moment voters are evenly 
split on party preference, but a bitterly divided National 
Party coming out of the primaries will most likely boost 
Liberal chances in November.  Historically, in all six 
previous presidential elections, the front-runner in national 
polls at Easter has always gone on to win the general 
election.  End Comment. 
Palmer