US embassy cable - 05PARIS734

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 000734 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KPAL, IZ, IS, FR 
SUBJECT: FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER DISCUSSES IRAQ, IRAN 
PROLIFERATION, AND MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS WITH CODEL 
KERRY 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso 
ns 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Senator John Kerry (D-MA) completed a nearly 
two-week trip that had taken him to Iraq, major Middle East 
capitals, the Palestinian territories, Berlin and London, 
with a stop in Paris and meetings with President Chirac 
(septel) and Foreign Minister Barnier January 14.  Barnier 
shared with Kerry French thinking on Iraqi elections and 
stated that France was prepared to initiate a training 
program for Iraqi gendarmes outside of Iraq.  He called for 
full U.S. support for the European initiative to persuade 
Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons program.  Barnier lauded 
U.S.-French efforts to compel Syria to withdraw its troops 
from Lebanon.  He stated that the Israeli-Palestinian 
conflict contributes to instability throughout the region, 
and called U.S.-European cooperation on the Middle East peace 
process a "test" of our will to mend transatlantic relations. 
 Barnier also commented briefly on European efforts to build 
a defense and security capability that complements NATO and 
cooperates with the U.S.  He concluded with a brief 
description of the GOF's support for EU membership 
negotiations with Turkey.  End summary. 
 
Iraq 
---- 
 
2.  (C) Foreign Minister Michel Barnier received Senator 
Kerry January 14 for an hour-long discussion focused on Iraq, 
 the EU-3 agreement with Iran on nuclear weapons, 
Syria/Lebanon, the Middle East peace process, the EU's 
defense capability, and Turkey's membership candidacy.  A 
full list of meeting participants is at para. 13.  Barnier 
opened by noting that he had just come from a meeting with 
visiting Iraqi President Ghazi al Yawer and had earlier in 
the week received a delegation of Iraqi political leaders 
representing all major parties.  France, he said, had 
consistently argued the need for broad participation in the 
Iraqi political process.  Given current indications, France 
feared that Iraqi Sunnis might not vote in large numbers in 
the January 30 elections.  The single constituency electoral 
law under which the elections are being organized already 
gives an advantage to the more numerous Shia; if, in 
addition, Sunnis do not participate, they may find themselves 
excluded from the political process.  Barnier said he had 
raised this problem with President al Yawer, who said it 
would be addressed after the elections. 
 
3.  (C) Kerry said that the period immediately following the 
elections would be crucial to Iraq's future.  A process of 
reconciliation will have to be put in place, without which 
the insurgency would only grow.  A "new kind of effort" is 
needed in which the Iraqi government and people unite to 
improve the security situation and the provision of services. 
 Barnier said the election would be an important step that 
could put Iraq on a more positive trajectory.  Fifty or 60 
percent overall turnout, even given low Sunni participation, 
would be a good result -- one the international community 
should stand behind and support.  It will be in all our 
interests to lend legitimacy to the election as a necessary 
step in the political process.  Barnier commented positively 
on al Yawer's statement during their meeting that the Iraqi 
election law would be changed after January 30, as part of 
the constitutional drafting process, to define multiple 
versus a single electoral district.  Barnier indicated that 
this change would be likely to produce more inclusive results 
in future elections. 
 
4.  (C) Affirming that U.S. troops will leave Iraq by the end 
of 2005 is another critical element in building support for 
an Iraqi government and the political process, Barnier said. 
He noted that President Chirac had told President Bush in a 
telephone conversation earlier in the day that France was 
prepared to conduct training for Iraqi gendarmes in a place 
outside Iraq -- but would not train Iraqi soldiers.  Kerry 
challenged Barnier on this point, noting that it appeared 
inconsistent to press for the withdrawal of U.S. forces while 
declining to help train the Iraqi troops that would need to 
take their place.   He asked how many Iraqi troops Barnier 
thought could be trained by NATO or an ad hoc effort. 
Barnier appeared uncertain of how to respond to the question, 
finally saying that France's attitude toward training Iraqi 
soldiers was "changing a bit."  He declined to speculate on 
the number of troops NATO could train, but added that a large 
NATO presence in Baghdad would be counterproductive. 
Returning to the French offer to train gendarmes, Barnier 
asserted that Paris had made the offer months ago, but that 
there had been no follow-up from either the Iraqi Interim 
Government or the U.S. government.  Chirac had repeated the 
offer to al Yawer during their meeting the previous day. 
 
Iranian proliferation 
--------------------- 
5.  (C) Barnier said he perceived "some skepticism" in 
Washington regarding the EU3 initiative to persuade Iran to 
halt reprocessing of enriched uranium and abandon its efforts 
to acquire nuclear weapons.  France, too, was not completely 
trusting of the Iranians, but was convinced that negotiating 
with them was the only reasonable course open.  The 
alternatives were not attractive: either turning a blind eye 
to Iranian efforts to acquire nuclear weapons, or going to 
war with Iran.  "We want to pursue the negotiations," Barnier 
continued, and U.S. support for the EU3 effort will be 
crucial to its ultimate success.  Without U.S. support, Iran 
risks becoming "a third hot spot," Barnier warned, naming 
Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the two others. 
Kerry said he believed Iran already was a hot spot, and noted 
that he had urged full U.S. engagement in EU3 efforts to 
persuade Iran to renounce its nuclear weapons program.  Some 
would argue that the appearance of an accommodating EU3 
needing to satisfy an insistent United States (a "good cop, 
bad cop" ploy) had helped advance the negotiations.  Kerry 
said that while this may be true, it did not appear that the 
Administration had intentionally set up this dynamic. 
 
6.  (C) Kerry said his conversations in the region had 
convinced him that Iran remains committed to a nuclear 
weapons program, but agreed that there were no good 
alternatives to negotiating.  Senator Kerry commented that 
the military option would be difficult.  Kerry said his own 
intention, had he been elected president, was to pursue front 
channel and back channel contacts with the Iranian regime. 
He noted that eventual UN consideration of Iran's breach of 
IAEA commitments could result in economic sanctions.  Barnier 
emphasized that the EU3 approach is to proceed in stages with 
the Iranians "with checks (for compliance) along the way." 
The incentive offered for a verified halt in reprocessing is 
cooperation on Iran's civilian nuclear program, he went on. 
Russia, said Barnier, supports this approach, partly for 
their own commercial interest in selling nuclear fuel to 
Iran, although they, too, are distrustful of the Iranians. 
Barnier reiterated that U.S. support would be essential to 
the success of the process. 
 
Syria/Lebanon 
------------- 
 
7.  (C) Barnier recalled that the U.S. and France had 
successfully cooperated in crafting and winning approval of 
UN Security Council Resolution 1559, mandating the withdrawal 
of Syrian forces from Lebanon and the disbanding of all armed 
groups in the country.  The U.S. and France needed to remain 
together in pressing for compliance with the resolution. 
Facilitating Lebanese legislative elections this spring that 
are free of Syrian interference should be our mid-term 
objective. 
 
Israeli-Palestinian conflict 
---------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Our first priority for cooperative efforts in the 
region should be helping Israelis and Palestinians come to a 
just and lasting settlement of their differences, Barnier 
went on.  This conflict is central in the minds of many 
regional leaders, and the lack of a solution feeds 
instability and impedes democratic reform in countries 
stretching from the Maghreb to South Asia.  Barnier told 
Kerry that during his recent visit, Pakistani President 
Musharraf had told him that discontent over the 
Israeli-Palestinian conflict increased the appeal of radical 
Islamic teaching and contributed to instability in Pakistan. 
U.S. efforts to promote democratic reform in the region, 
efforts that France supports, Barnier said, will be made more 
difficult if the perception continues that the U.S. and 
others are not doing enough to resolve the conflict.  In 
France, too, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has the power 
to inflame sentiment among the country's estimated five 
million Muslims.  So Europe has a stake in resolving the 
conflict.  The U.S. has a stake.  Our cooperation will be 
essential in moving the parties toward peace.  It will also 
be the "test" of U.S.-European will to rebuild the 
transatlantic relationship, Barnier said, repeating a 
statement he has made publicly on a number of occasions in 
recent weeks. 
 
9.  (C) Kerry agreed.  He said that the broad parameters of a 
solution are already known.  They are essentially what was on 
the table at Taba under the Clinton administration.  There 
can be no final agreement without a solution for the Muslim 
holy places in Jerusalem.  The Palestinian state has to be 
viable, not a collection of far-flung enclaves.  There must 
be a reasonable solution on the right of return, one that 
does not pose an implicit threat to Israel's existence.  To 
get there, the Palestinians have to take a new turning.  Abu 
Mazen "cannot hold on to" Hamas and the Martyrs Brigade. 
Barnier argued for renewed U.S.-European cooperation in 
searching for a solution.  Europe, he said, needs to speak 
with one voice if it is to be respected by the U.S. and 
Israel.  For the moment, said Barnier, "Sharon sees the EU 
basically as a supermarket that sends checks."  Europe, which 
has much at stake in the region, can bring more to the 
process than financial support, Barnier went on.  Together, 
we should press Israel to implement Gaza withdrawal, but to 
go further in implementing the roadmap. 
 
10.  (C) In response to Kerry's question, Barnier said he 
regarded the UK-organized conference in London March 1 as a 
constructive initiative.  It will be an opportuntity for 
donor countries to demonstrate to the Palestinians, who are 
now "reorganized," that they stand behind them and 
Palestinian President Abu Mazen.  At the same time, the 
Palestinians are concerned that the conference could produce 
a list of "benchmarks" for them to achieve.  Their failure to 
reach any of them could then be used by the Israelis as an 
excuse for halting their own moves towards peace.  Kerry said 
that Abu Mazen really needs to gain control of the security 
situation and to rein in rejectionist groups.  He recalled 
the the Tenet Plan offered a way forward for the Palestinian 
Authority to consolidate control over the various security 
forces, and to coordinate with Israeli counterparts.  Kerry 
noted that Israel is concerned that Europe does not have 
Israel's security concerns foremost in mind, to which Barnier 
responded that Europe is not prepared "to bargain away 
Israel's security." 
 
European Security and Defense Policy 
------------------------------------ 
 
11.  (C) Asked about ESDP, Barnier recalled that as a 
European commissioner, he had led the drafting group on 
defense and security of the Convention on the Future of 
Europe that produced the draft European constitution. 
France, he said, believes that the EU needs to have a strong 
defense and security capability, not to compete with NATO, 
but to complement that orgainization in cooperation with the 
U.S.  The French approach to ESDP arises principally from the 
accord it reached with the UK at St. Malo in 2001.  The 
declaration of Europe's two most capable military powers 
there essentially forms the basis for an autonomous and 
cooperative European security and defense policy.  From this 
basis have arisen such projects as the European rapid 
response force, cooperation on armaments construction and 
research and development, and the creation of a small 
European joint staff. 
 
Turkey 
------ 
 
12.  (C) To Kerry's question about Turkey's EU membership 
bid, Barnier recalled that President Chirac had taken a 
decision to support Turkish membership, despite the 
opposition of a large majority of the French public and an 
even larger percentage, perhaps as much as 80 percent, of 
elected French officials and political activists.  Chirac's 
stance entails risk.  It could lead many voting in this 
year's referendum on the EU constitution to reject it in 
protest over the president's support for Turkey's eventual 
membership, Barnier said.  The foreign minister said that he, 
like Chirac, believes that Turkish membership will be an 
asset for the EU.  But Turkey, if it enters, will do so only 
after conforming with all European norms. 
 
Participants 
------------ 
 
13.  (SBU) Foreign Minister Barnier was accompanied by MFA 
Political Director Stanislas de Laboulaye, MFA Spokesman 
Herve Ladsous, Americas Director Daniel Parfait, and Cabinet 
Advisors for North American Affairs Nicolas de Riviere, and 
for Middle East Affairs Nicolas Galey.  Senator Kerry was 
accompanied by Senate Foreign Relations Committee 
Professional Staff Member Nancy Stetson and Embassy Deputy 
Political Counselor Paul Mailhot (notetaker). 
Leach