US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK953

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000953 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EAP/BCLTV 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, TH, Elections - Thai 
SUBJECT: THAI ELECTIONS: PAPER TIGER CAN'T KEEP UP WITH THE 
MONEY 
 
 
Classified By: Classified by Political Counselor Robert J. Clarke, Reas 
on: 1.4 (D) 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY:  Embassy visits to Phijit and Phitsanulok 
provinces before the February 6 parliamentary election 
revealed that allegations of vote buying and other campaign 
violations have a basis in truth in Thailand's "Lower North." 
 Local Election Commission officials and NGOs there are 
frustrated with their inability to enforce election 
regulations.  Well-known faces from all parties in rural 
Thailand remain popular.  Politicians have plans for 
post-election contingencies for Election Day violations well 
underway. END SUMMARY. 
 
ELECTION COMMISSION RESIGNED TO VOTE BUYING QUESTIONS EMBASSY 
INTEREST 
 
2. (C) Poloff visited Phijit and Phitsanulok provinces just a 
few days prior to Thailand's first general election in four 
years.  In this "Lower North" region of rural Thailand, 
agriculture and related food processing industries are the 
economic kingpin and local interest in all things political 
remains high.  Civil service staff from the Phijit provincial 
Election Commission (EC) predicted a 75 percent voter turnout 
rate in the provinces four constituencies.  These officials 
claimed that election related violence is much lower than 
four years ago and they reported only six official complaints 
of election fraud have been reported.  They predicted that no 
"red cards" eliminating candidates will be issued, but 
admitted that vote buying was common since it was part of 
"Thai political culture."  In a separate meeting with the 
Phijit EC Chairman and former Deputy Permanent Secretary of 
Education, Phiphop Karnchana, the retired civil servant 
appeared surprised and somewhat irritated at our interest in 
the elections in his province.  After taking his seat in a 
formal meeting room at the provincial hall, the 70-something 
man stated loudly, "Why did you come here?  Write down your 
questions right now so I can answer them all right now."  He 
then continued to look at papers and sign letters as we 
politely discussed some of the issues that we had just been 
talking about with his staff, who seemed a bit embarrassed at 
his behavior.  The Chairman then gave a nice overview of 
preparations for the election, stating Phijit was fully 
prepared for the election and there were "no problems" with 
vote buying or fraud in his province. 
 
 
NGO SHEDS LIGHT ON CANDIDATES, DESPITE THREATS 
 
3. (SBU) Unofficial vote monitors presented a somewhat 
different picture.  Trakarn Kunavut, Chairman of the 
Phijit-based NGO, Seang Tawan Group (Light of the Sun or 
SolGroup), told us of his grassroots efforts to monitor 
elections using a network of rice farmers and small business 
owners that has been working together for some 10 years. 
These NGO members believed in some respects this 
parliamentary election appeared to be better than the last, 
with a notable drop in violence, particularly shootings among 
rival party canvassers.  However, parties appear to be 
getting more sophisticated in vote buying, offering a 
two-tiered system of pre-election gifts, such as dishes, 
clothes or Buddha images to voters in early January and now 
following up with "bonus money in the next few days leading 
up to election day.  Saeng Tawan (and their 
election-monitoring group People's Network for Election 
Monitoring in Thailand or PNET) had recently released a story 
to a daily Thai newspaper detailing vote buying by a Democrat 
Party (DP) Candidate.  They had also brought vote buying 
allegations to the EC regarding a Thai Rak Thai (TRT) 
candidate but asked to withdraw the complaint after villagers 
received death threats.  Trakarn commented that Phijit won,t 
see a red card go to the TRT candidate because it's well 
known that one of the commissioners is in the pocket of the 
government and TRT party.  "Since a decision to issue a red 
card must be a unanimous consensus of the EC, this won't 
happen," he said. 
 
PARLIAMENT: IT'S A FAMILY BUSINESS 
 
4. (C) Poloffs met with MPs from two well-known Phijit 
families.  First, in Tapan Hin district, we met with veteran 
MP Adul Boonsert, of the TRT.  Adul,s late father was a 
prominent New Aspiration Party (NAP) MP.  Now, with NAP 
merged into TRT, both Adul and his son, Nawin Boonsert (who 
is running for the first time in another district in Phijit) 
are campaigning under the TRT banner.  If Nawin pulls out an 
unexpected win, he would be the first third generation MP in 
Thai history.  The elder Boonsert appeared very confident of 
his own chances, noting that he really doesn't need to 
campaign on his own, leaving it to his beloved elderly mother 
and canvassers.  He also admitted that going out on the 
campaign trail on his own was risky due to the possibility of 
dirty politicking and fraudulent claims of election 
violations being thrown at him from rivals. He predicted that 
the TRT will win 349 seats (constituency and party list 
total) and that Finance Minster Somkid Jatusripitak will 
continue to play a more prominent role in the TRT party, 
possibly even being groomed as a replacement for Thaksin in 
four years.  Adul then showed off his many cars, including a 
Cadillac limousine, a Lincoln Town Car and a red Corvette 
sports car, all guarded by several men brandishing guns under 
their jackets. 
 
5. (SBU) Poloffs also met with the young, energetic 
opposition Democrat Party (DP) MP, Narapat Kaewthong, whose 
father was also a New Aspiration Party MP from Phijit 
province.  Narapat received a yellow card four years ago for 
alleged irregularities that were noticed in ballots during 
the counting process.  He was elected after a re-vote was 
mandated by the EC.  This year, the PNET has already accused 
him of vote-buying, citing villagers who claim his canvassers 
distributed 400 baht to them in exchange for votes (100 baht 
was kept by the canvasser).  Narapat never directly denied or 
acknowledged the vote buying when asked. After a long 
conversation over Pepsi at a hot, sunny roadside stand, 
Narapat finally surmised, "The real reason I,m confident 
I'll win is because the other party promised 500 baht per 
vote but is only paying 200.  What an insult to the 
villagers!" He predicted that he will be red-carded by the EC 
after the election but has already made a plan.  First he 
claimed to have a videotape of the TRT candidate at a meeting 
with local administration officials where the candidate 
actually gives out thousands of baht in advance for future 
vote buying. In case this blackmail doesn't work, Narapat has 
his younger sister running in his district under the "Thai 
Rak Thin" party banner, an older nearly defunct party with no 
current representation in Parliament.  If he's eliminated and 
there is a revote, Narapat believes she will surely win with 
her name recognition. (Note: In a side conversation with 
members of PNET, and flanked by two armed bodyguards close at 
hand,  Narawat said to them, "I respect your work, but you 
are just a paper tiger, you and the EC." End note.) 
 
 
HILL TRIBE VILLAGES "REAPPEAR" TO VOTE? 
 
6. (U) In nearby Phitsanulok Province, the EC Chairman Supot 
Pruekwan, vice rector and professor at Ratchaphak Phitsanulok 
provided a cogent, professional brief of the status of 
election fraud in his large, rural and mountainous province. 
The local EC expects voter turnout at about 65 percent, 
numerous accusations of voter fraud continue.  In one area, 
voter registration lists include over 400 names of hill tribe 
villages who NGOs have confirmed have not lived in this area 
for years and whom no one in these small isolated communities 
has even heard of.  As recently as last year, there were 
records that all of these persons voted in municipal 
elections.  Predicting that at least two MP candidates 
(unnamed) will be issued red cards, the EC chair added that 
there have been numerous complaints about Thai police 
harassing voters with false allegations of fraud, illegal 
searches, and other tactics.  (Note: The Police, upon 
referral from the EC, undertake initial investigations of 
election violations. End note.)  Taking cell phone calls 
about various ongoing fraud investigations throughout the 
meeting, Suphot noted that the EC is really just a mechanism 
for holding elections but has no real power to monitor 
election fraud, let alone hold candidates or party operatives 
responsible for violations. 
 
7. (C) COMMENT:  Allegations of vote buying and fraudulent 
activities by candidates are nothing new in Thai politics, 
and certainly this week leading up to Sunday's election is no 
exception.  Increasingly vigorous rounds of election day and 
post-election day accusations, investigation and potential 
re-balloting probably will continue for the next month or 
longer.  Meanwhile, MPs with family ties, an ability to 
deliver to their constituents, and tried and true methods of 
cash-for-votes are confident that Sunday's vote will bring 
them another term in office. END COMMENT. 
BOYCE