US embassy cable - 02ABUJA886

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000886 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2007 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ABUJA WEEKLY REVIEW: MARCH 11-15, 2002 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons 1.5 (b) 
and (d.) 
 
 
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Northern Governors Protest National Identity Cards 
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1.  (U) Electoral preparations were high on the agenda of the 
Northern Governors when they met this week. As a result of 
their discussions, the Governors issued a statement opposing 
the Federal Government's plan to use the proposed national 
identification card as the voter registration document.  The 
Governors felt that making possession of the proposed ID card 
a prerequisite for voting would effectively disenfranchise 
many Northerners because large segments of the region's 
population were farmers in small isolated communities or were 
nomadic pastoralists. While many of these people might vote, 
they probably would not bother with the cumbersome process of 
obtaining an ID card, said critics of the I.D. Card proposal. 
 
 
2.  (C) Comment: The Governors' concerns mirror comments DAS 
Perry heard during a discussion with the Secretary General of 
the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) in Kaduna on March 9.  The 
ACF saw the identity card requirement as a conscious ploy by 
the Presidency to disenfranchise the North due to growing 
opposition in that region to Obasanjo's prospective 
Presidential candidacy. Many Northerners are also incensed 
about the price tag for the identity card exercise. The ACF 
claims that the government has allocated more in the FY-02 
federal budget for the ID cards than for the entire 
agricultural sector, the lifeline of the Northern economy. 
 
 
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APP TO SUE GOVERNMENT OVER INEC COMMISSIONERS 
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3.  (C) Count the APP among those who suspect the Obasanjo 
Administration's electoral preparations are less than 
even-handed.  APP National Chairman Yusuf Ali told reporters 
this week that his party would sue the Federal Government 
over the hiring of 34 Commissioners to replace the 34 
Obasanjo fired several weeks ago. (Note: Obasanjo fired all 
but three of 37 INEC State Commissioners resident in the 36 
States and Abuja.  The Commissioners are the top INEC 
officials in their jurisdiction and are responsible for the 
preparation of the national election in their locales.) The 
APP head claimed that the suit was necessary because the new 
Commissioners were PDP partisans who could not be trusted to 
run impartial elections. (Comment:  Many of the new 
Commissioners are PDP loyalists. In at least one state, a 
member of the PDP state executive was appointed to fill the 
INEC posts.  It appears Obasanjo was within his legal rights 
to fire and hire commissioners; however, stacking the roster 
with cronies is not the way to instill confidence in the 
electoral process.  End Comment.) 
 
 
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Police and Military Do Not Strike; But Will Labor? 
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4. (SBU) The threatened police and military strikes did not 
take place March 11, as some anticipated.  The Administration 
can take credit for nimbly dousing anger in the ranks of the 
police force by firing IGP Smith. 
 
 
5. (C) However, strike talk has not totally abated.  The 
National Labour Congress issued an ultimatum that it will 
call a general strike on May 1 -- International Labor Day -- 
if the Federal Government does not honor its promise to 
increase wages by 25 percent.  In publicizing this ultimatum, 
the NLC leadership said labor had waited patiently, agreeing 
to the Government's request to forego the agreed-upon wage 
increase in 2001.  However, much to Labour's chagrin, the 
payment for its patience was the fuel price increase at the 
beginning of the year.  Now, Labour was insisting on the long 
overdue wage increase.  (Comment:  To a large degree, labor 
is right; the Government has reneged on its promise.  The 
Government is probably delaying, in large part, because the 
increase will inflate the budget deficit.  NLC leader Adams 
Oshimole is still smarting from the Federal Government's 
shabby treatment of him when the Government stonewalled talks 
about the fuel price increase and successfully thwarted the 
attempted general strike in January.  Oshimole probably does 
not want another confrontation with the Administration but 
must be seen as doing something to restore his and the NLC's 
credibility and diminished image.  End comment.) 
 
 
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Row Between The Presidency and The House Continues 
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6.  (SBU) The Executive's relations with the House of 
Representatives remain contentious. During the week, the 
House opened hearings on the NITEL privatization sale.  The 
sale, once hailed as the acme of GON reform efforts, is 
crumbling because bidders cannot obtain the financing needed 
to fund their $ 1.317 billion bid.  Clearly, the House wants 
to embarrass the Administration by rubbing its nose in this 
mire that a short time ago it touted as a major success. 
Even more symbolic of House-Executive acrimony, Speaker 
Na'Abba publicly accused the Presidency of plotting physical 
attacks against him and other House Members.  Information 
Minister Jerry Gana has refuted Na'Abba's allegations. 
Additionally, the Presidency continues to investigate the 
House Members' salaries and emoluments, asserting that the 
Members will be asked to return any excess payments received. 
 House Speaker Na'Abba is increasingly being mentioned as a 
possible Presidential candidate. 
 
 
7.  (C)  Meanwhile, relations between the Senate and the 
Executive remain cooperative, due mainly to Senate President 
Anyim's close relationship with Obasanjo.  For example, in 
recent weeks, the Senate has acted swiftly to all 
Presidential appointments when advice or consent was needed. 
However, this relationship may be put to a stress test if 
Anyim buckles to House pressure to hold a joint session on 
Obasanjo's Presidency similar to the debate held by the lower 
chamber in late January where that body criticized Obasanjo's 
performance as inept. 
Jeter