US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK948

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000948 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TH, Elections - Thai, Southern Thailand 
SUBJECT: THAI ELECTIONS:  PROMINENT DEMOCRAT PARTY 
CANDIDATES IN TOUGH FIGHTS IN SOUTHERN CONSTITUENCIES 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT J. CLARKE.  REASON:  1.4 (D) 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  Dr. Surin Phitsuwan, Democrat (DP) party 
luminary and former Foreign Minister under the Chuan Leekpai 
administration, is waging a tough fight for election to 
Parliament in a traditionally DP Nakhon Si Thammarat 
constituency.  He faces a well-funded, younger Thai Rak Thai 
(TRT) Party challenger.  Surin, one of the DP's more 
articulate and internationally known officials, told poloff 
on February 2 that the TRT is using illegal campaign tactics 
and legal intimidation to hobble his campaign.  He admitted 
that his decision to run for the constituency in place of the 
incumbent, his sister, had attracted accusations of 
"carpetbagging" and that this was hurting him.  In a 
constituency in nearby Phang - nga province, on the Andaman 
Sea coast, Prime Minister Thaksin's response to the recent 
tsunami disaster has won him points and could have an impact 
 
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on DP incumbent Jurit Luksanawisit's chances.  While no one 
is willing to predict outright a TRT upset in either Nakhon 
Si Thammarat or Phang-nga, DP candidates in these areas are 
in the unaccustomed and uncomfortable position of having real 
competition.  End Summary. 
 
PROMINENT DP CANDIDATE SWITCHES FROM PARTY LIST TO CONTEST 
CONSTITUENCY SEAT 
 
2.  (SBU)  On February 1-2, Poloff and PolFSN visited two 
constituencies, one in Nakhon Si Thammarat and the other in 
Phang-nga.  Both have long been held by the opposition 
Democrat Party, but both DP candidates are being heavily 
challenged by the Thai Rak Thai party.  In Nakhon Si 
Thammarat's first constituency, incumbent Huwaiyda Phitsuwan 
stepped aside so that her brother, nationally prominent DP 
politician Surin Phitsuwan, could run for her constituency. 
Most observers believe that Surin felt that Huwaiyda would 
lose against the well-placed TRT candidate -- Kanop Ketchap, 
son of the powerful mayor of Nakhon Si Thammarat.  With 
indications that the TRT was targeting the constituency as an 
opportunity "trophy" seat in the DP-dominated south, Surin 
asked to step in for Hawaiyda.  In return, the DP offered her 
a party list candidacy.  Party list seats are 100 national, 
non-constituency seats awarded proportionately to those 
parties who pick up five percent or more of the separate 
countrywide vote on party lists.  Surin had held a party list 
seat in Parliament before opting to run for his sister's seat. 
 
COMPLAINTS OF "CARPETBAGGING 
 
3.  (C)  Surin has served as an MP for Nakhon Si Thammarat 
since 1986.  His most recent term, from 2001 to 2005, had 
been as a party list candidate.  Surin is by his own 
admission having a tough fight.  During lunch with poloff, he 
complained that his decision to run for the constituency seat 
in place of his sister has evinced accusations of his being a 
"carpetbagger."  Surin said that the TRT machine is painting 
him as essentially uninterested in working for the 
constituency's interests, but rather ambitious to use the 
seat for his own national political agenda.  He also noted 
that some of the DP voters in the constituency, upset because 
he had taken his popular sister's place, were threatening to 
withhold their votes from Surin. 
 
CLAIMS STRONG TACTICS BY OPPONENTS 
 
4.  (C)  Surin told poloff that his supporters are also being 
intimidated by the TRT.  His TRT opponent's father is Mayor 
of Nakhon Si Thammarat.  Posters for Surin's candidacy are 
being destroyed regularly and, he complained, the Provincial 
Election Commission has been unresponsive.  "My supporters 
are afraid to show their support for me in some areas," Surin 
claimed.  Surin said that over 4,000 voters cast their 
ballots as "early voters," an unusually high number of 
persons taking advantage of the procedure that allows voters 
who are unable to vote on election day to vote before then. 
 
5.  (C)  Surin said that vote buying by TRT canvassers is 
rampant, with phone cards in many cases replacing baht notes 
as the currency.  Surin noted wryly that though voters in 
southern Thailand are justifiably known to show more party 
loyalty then in other regions of Thailand, money is money, 
and some of his potential supporters will be swayed.  In the 
case of TRT, anything goes, said Surin.  He added that he has 
to be careful in his speeches because the TRT is trying to 
muzzle him legally.  Surin said that he had to appear before 
the election commission the following day to explain 
complaints by the TRT that he had "vilified" his opponent in 
his speeches.  (note:  Surin told poloff that he merely 
pointed out to his audience that he was for honesty and 
transparency in government and that voters wanted these 
values in government they should vote for him and not the TRT 
candidate.) 
 
TRT CANDIDATE SAYS POLITICS ARE LOCAL 
 
6.  (SBU)  Surin's TRT opponent Kanop told poloff that he 
will adhere to a straightforward theme:  to represent 
directly the interests of Nakhon Si Thammarat's citizens -- 
traffic, flood control, tourism development.  He said he will 
have the advantage of being a member of a strong government 
that is able to get things done.  The DP candidate would not 
have the access that he would and the voters understand that, 
he said.  They also know that if elected he will focus on the 
voters' local issues, not matters of national policy.  Kanop 
said that he is a "local son" who has returned to his home 
town from abroad (University of Colorado Civil Engineering). 
 
...AND TOUTS YOUTH AND "COMMON TOUCH" 
 
7.  (SBU)  Kanop, a young-looking 32 year old, told poloff 
that he is reaching out to young voters (he had just come 
from a local college to meet with poloff), portraying himself 
as a change from old-style politics.  He said that he hoped 
that the parents of young voters (voter eligibility is 18 in 
Thailand) will follow their children's lead and vote for 
change.  Kanop added that rather than the traditional mass 
rallies, he had mounted a door-to-door campaign in order to 
let the voters see and hear his message up close.  (Note: 
That evening, former Prime Minister and DP leader Chuan 
Leekpai came to Nakhon Si Thammarat to support Surin at a 
mass rally.  End note.) 
 
8.  (SBU)  Nakhon Si Thammarat Election Commission members 
told poloff that no election-related violence had occurred so 
far in constituency one and that there had been only a few 
complaints of election fraud - most made by candidates 
against their opponents.  Commission Chairman Somboon 
Promphan expressed confidence to poloff in the commission's 
ability to manage the process, having learned from experience 
in the 2001 general election.  They told poloff that the 
commission's control over the process is stricter than 2001 
and that the commission has vote fraud investigative teams 
stationed in each constituency in the country. 
 
WAYS TO A MEANS - VOTE BUYING 
 
9.  (C)  Supha Thippharat, regional head of Pollwatch, an 
Election Commission-funded organization mandated to observe 
the activities of candidates, the local election commission 
and related government officials, told poloff that supporters 
from both sides were trying to influence voters through 
handouts.  One tactic was to hand prospective voters 20 Baht 
notes (approx. 40 baht equals one U.S. dollar) with a unique 
stamp on it.  The recipient is told that if the named 
candidate wins, the stamped 20 baht note can be redeemed for 
a 1,000 baht note.  Another tactic is to task the voter with 
taking a cell phone equipped with a camera into the voting 
booth to record that he or she had indeed marked the ballot 
for the "right" party, allowing for payment. 
 
EARLY VOTERS - EARLY FRAUD? 
 
10.  (C)  Supha also noted Surin's suspicions about the large 
numbers of early voters.  She agreed that the number appeared 
to be unusually high for constituency one.  In earlier 
elections about one thousand persons voted early in 
constituency one.  This election the number was about 4,400, 
according to Supha  She raised the question of possible 
fraud, saying that Pollwatch had been informed that many of 
the early voters had been brought in from Nakhon Si 
Thammarat's tenth constituency, where numerous cases of voter 
list name duplication existed.  She opined that TRT had 
exploited this situation and had arranged transport for these 
fraudulent voters to the first constituency. 
 
THAKSIN'S TSUNAMI PERFORMANCE HELPING TRT CANDIDATE IN 
PHANG-NGA 
 
11.  (SBU)  Another DP incumbent, Jurit Luksanawisit, is 
facing a tough challenge in the first constituency of 
Phang-nga province.  This province, also traditionally DP as 
in Nakhon Si Thammarat, was particularly hard hit by the 
recent tsunami.  According to Supha and other observers, 
Jurit's TRT opponent, Krit Seefah, is receiving a bump in 
support from voters because of what was considered the quick 
and decisive actions by Thaksin's government following the 
tsunami.  Jurit, like Surin, is a prominent DP politician and 
 
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an upset by the TRT in his constituency would represent a 
real coup for Thaksin. 
 
TSUNAMI COMPLICATING ELECTION PROCESS IN PHANG-NGA 
 
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12.  (C)  Election officials with whom poloff spoke in 
Phang-nga said that there has been relatively little evidence 
of vote-buying and virtually no violence in the constituency. 
 Commission Chairman Prasoet Kuadkitchakan's biggest concern 
is over the potential for voter fraud.  Prasoet said that the 
Phang-nga Election Commission believes that because of the 
chaotic circumstances of the December 26 tsunami, large 
number of those Phang-nga residents killed have not been 
reported to the commission.  This leaves open the possibility 
of voter fraud through use of deceased persons' 
identification documents.  The  Commission members also told 
poloff that they had problems locating enough suitable 
polling sites to replace those destroyed by the tsunami. 
 
13.  (C)  Comment:  TRT appears to be mounting a full court 
press in these two high-profile southern constituencies. 
They are traditional DP strongholds and, while no one we 
spoke to is willing to predict outright a TRT upset in Nakhon 
Si Thammarat or Phang-nga, the DP candidates in these areas 
know they are fighting real contests. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BOYCE