US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI473

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000473 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: CHEN USING BUSH SPEECH TO PROMOTE REFORM AGENDA 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal; Reasons: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: President Chen Shui-bian is actively touting 
President Bush's inaugural call to spread freedom and 
democracy as a validation of his efforts to push forward with 
constitutional reform.  During a January 31 speech in Guam, 
President Chen characterized Taiwan as a key ally in 
President Bush's initiative to expand the community of 
democracies.  Local analysts say that Chen is likely to 
exploit the USG focus on democratization to justify policies 
such as referenda and constitutional revision that are 
anathema to Beijing.  Taiwan observers tell AIT that 
President Bush's inaugural speech played well with the Taiwan 
pubic, leading to expectations that relations with Washington 
would improve in a second term.  Some Chen administration 
officials tell AIT privately, however, that Chen's 
mismanagement of U.S.-Taiwan relations over the past two 
years may negate any bounce Taiwan might have gained from a 
new USG focus on democracy building.  End summary. 
 
Chen Pushing His Own Agenda 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (C) President Chen Shui-bian is touting President Bush's 
inauguration speech references to freedom and democracy to 
validate his constitutional reform agenda.  During a January 
31 speech to local Taiwan community leaders in Guam and other 
recent public events, Chen has described his plan for 
constitutional reform as paralleling President Bush's 
inaugural call to expand freedom and democracy.  In Guam, 
Chen said that President Bush's initiative can "form the 
basis of future cooperation between Taiwan and the U.S." and 
touting an emerging "alliance of values" between Taipei and 
Washington.  In a congratulatory letter to President Bush on 
his re-election, Chen also made a clear reference to his plan 
for constitution reform when he said he was "encouraged that 
the U.S. would seek and support the growth of democratic 
movements and institutions" in every nation. 
 
A Blank Check? 
-------------- 
 
3. (C) Local political observers have warned that President 
Bush's speech may be utilized by Chen and his Pan-Green 
supporters for "whatever they want."  National Taiwan 
University Professor Chiang Ming-ching told AIT that 
President Bush's speech gave the Chen administration "a 
blank-check."  Chiang said that the Pan-Green camp sees 
liberty and freedom as something that all Taiwanese must 
enjoy, particularly the right of self-determination.  Chiang 
believes that in Chen's mind, President Bush's speech 
validates Chen's grass roots campaign to promote such 
initiatives as changing the names of state institutions from 
"China" to "Taiwan" and major constitutional reform.  Chiang 
also maintained that, in Chen's mind, "freedom" means the 
freedom to do whatever the people want, regardless of the 
consequences.  Institute of National Policy Research (INPR) 
Executive Director Lo Chih-cheng separately offered a similar 
assessment, predicting that Chen would likely seize the 
initiative to promote his own image of freedom in Taiwan. 
 
4. (C) Some analysts assessed that President Bush's focus on 
democracy and freedom would reassure the Taiwan public. 
Academia Sinica polling expert Hsu Yung-ming told AIT that 
liberty and democracy are very popular ideas in Taiwan.  He 
said that many people are hopeful that President Bush's 
speech signals that Washington will stand closer to Taiwan 
than the PRC.  Moreover, Hsu said that many Taiwanese expect 
that President Bush will push the PRC on democracy.  Hsu 
believes that the Taiwanese think President Bush is a man of 
his word and will follow his speech with real actions.  The 
INPR's Lo told AIT that President Bush was wise to emphasize 
freedom over democracy because every country can say they are 
a democracy, but it is more difficult to claim every country 
is free.  For this reason, Lo argued that the PRC may feel a 
little uneasy and threatened after the speech.  Lo added that 
the speech was important for Taiwan because it reminds people 
that they share the same values as the U.S. 
 
Improved Taiwan-U.S. Relations? 
------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Many Taiwanese are hopeful that President's Bush 
speech signaled a closer relationship with Washington.  Lin 
Cheng-yi, the Director of European and American Studies at 
Academia Sinica and a former National Security Council (NSC) 
Senior Advisor told AIT that he was optimistic over prospects 
for closer Taipei-Washington ties after hearing President 
Bush's speech.  Although Lin noted that President Bush did 
not mention China when he singled out countries that lacked 
freedom, Lin believes that the Bush Administration's second 
term goals track closely with Taiwan's efforts to reform the 
constitution.  He opined that these factors suggest that 
there is hope that Taiwan-U.S. relations will be closer as a 
result of Washington's ideals-based initiative.  Lin added 
that many Taiwanese think that President Bush will support 
Taiwan because Taipei represents the values President Bush 
highlighted as major goals for his second term. 
 
The Cynical View 
---------------- 
 
6. (C) While Pan-Green analysts were generally heartened by 
President Bush's inaugural speech, opposition observers 
expressed skepticism.  Professor Emile Sheng from Soochow 
University told AIT that the speech was not about Taiwan and 
the PRC at all.  He said the cross-Srait situation is a 
unique issue and President Bush's speech should not be taken 
literally.  Sheng said that most people in Taiwan were not 
aroused by the speech because they know that the speech was 
on places like Iraq and North Korea, not China.  Academia 
Sinica's Hsu noted that President Bush did not mention 
Beijing in his speech, suggesting that Washington sees a need 
for the PRC for help with North Korea and anti-terrorism 
initiatives.  He said that, President Bush's inaugural 
address notwithstanding, Taiwan is worried President Bush 
will sacrifice Taiwanese interests at the hands of Beijing. 
 
Comment: Chen Taking the Initiative 
----------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) While President Bush's speech did not generate an 
unusually large amount of publicity in Taiwan, President Chen 
and his supporters have decided to get as much as they can 
out of it.  Chen appears particularly eager to use President 
Bush's speech to justify his more controversial initiatives, 
including constitutional reforms.  Chen administration 
foreign policy officials tell AIT privately that they realize 
that frictions in U.S.-Taiwan relationship are not going to 
be overcome simply because of shared interest in promoting 
abstract issues like freedom and democracy.  However, in his 
dealings with the Taiwan public, media, and U.S. supporters, 
Chen is likely to invoke these themes to justify policies 
that may impact on more concrete U.S. policy issues in the 
region. 
PAAL