US embassy cable - 05SOFIA217

C O N F I D E N T I A L SOFIA 000217 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/4/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, BU 
SUBJECT: BULGARIAN GOVERNMENT IN SHOCK AS UNITED 
OPPOSITION TABLES NO-CONFIDENCE MOTION 
 
REF: SOFIA 0207 
 
(U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR JAMES PARDEW, FOR REASONS 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) Summary.  The government is in shock at the 
rapid escalation of the political crisis that began 
earlier this week with the collapse of the BulgarTabak 
privatization deal (reftel), with the Prime Minister 
telling the Ambassador this evening that he is "very 
worried."  The turmoil gained momentum February 3 with 
the submission late in the day of a no-confidence 
motion supported by a range of opposition parties. 
The motion allows the Parliamentary debate to begin as 
early as February 6, and a vote in the National 
Assembly could take place as early as February 8. 
The first victim may be Deputy Prime Minister and 
Minister of the Economy Lydia Shuleva; unconfirmed 
reports of her resignation began circulating Thursday 
afternoon, but her office has denied these.  Shuleva's 
handling of the failed BulgarTabak  privatization, 
accompanied by her dismissive attitude toward 
Parliamentary concerns about the deal,  sparked the 
crisis and united the opposition.  End summary. 
 
2. (C) A separate motion calling for the resignation 
of  Parliamentary speaker Gerdjikov has also been 
introduced, and could be voted on as early as 
tomorrow.  A simple majority (121) of the 240-seat 
Parliament will be necessary to bring down the 
government, but cannot take place for at least four 
days.   Prime Minister Saxe-Coburg's coalition with 
the mainly ethnic-Turkish Movement of Rights and 
Freedom (MRF) controls only 118 seats.  It lost its 
Parliamentary majority last year when a dissatisfied 
wing of the PM's part, calling itself  "New Time," 
split from the government's parliamentary group.   The 
New Time's 13 MPs have generally supported the 
government, but sided with the opposition this time, 
leaving the Prime Minister at least three votes short 
of a majority.  By abandoning Shuleva, who is reviled 
by New Time for personal as well as political reasons, 
the Prime Minister may be able to win back the New 
Time vote; otherwise, he will have to rely on the 
votes of some of the seven independent MPs. 
 
3. (C) Shuleva's handling of the BulgarTabak 
privatization quickly became a lightening rod for the 
frustration surrounding the government's overall lack 
of consultation with the Parliament.   And while one 
of the government's more effective ministers, 
Shuleva's forceful manner has created substantial ill 
will among her party and the opposition. 
 
4. (C) The coming no-confidence vote will be the sixth 
brought against the Prime Minister since he took power 
in July 2001.  Three of the five previous votes were 
tabled by the center-right opposition, the remaining 
two by the Socialists.  This will be the first brought 
jointly by the two opposition groupings.  No post- 
communist Bulgarian Government has collapsed as a 
result of a no-confidence vote brought by the 
opposition. 
 
5. (C) Comment:  The failed effort to privatize 
Bulgaria's state-owned tobacco lobby (has blossomed 
into a full-scale political crisis.  The government 
has survived every previous no-confidence vote by 
negotiating back-room deals and maintaining divisions 
among the opposition.  However, the apparent unity of 
the opposition and the proximity of national elections 
make the outcome less certain this time around.  The 
13 New Time MPs and seven independents hold the key to 
the outcome.  Government ministers with whom we spoke 
this evening are clearly shocked by the way in which a 
failed privatization deal has spiraled into a full- 
blown political crisis.  Minister for European Affairs 
Kuneva told the Ambassador tearfully that she did not 
expect the government to survive.  The ongoing 
domestic turmoil has nothing to do with Iraq and 
should have no impact on Bulgaria's deployment of 
troops there, but it will distract the government from 
virtually all other business until the situation is 
resolved.