US embassy cable - 05MUMBAI370

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 2 MUMBAI 000370 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: CONGRESS REAINS POWER IN GOA AFTER CONSTITUTIONALLY 
QUESTIOABLE MANEUVERING ON ALL SIDES 
 
 
Summary and Coment 
------------------- 
 
1. (SBU) A Congressled coalition assumed power in the small 
Indian sate of Goa on February 2 after some constitutionally 
questionable maneuvering by politicians from both Congress and 
the BJP.  Goa Governor S.C. Jamir asked Goa's Congress leader 
Pratapsinh Rane to form a new state government after Jamir 
sacked Chief Minister and BJP politician Manohar Parrikar.  When 
taking his action, Jamir acted on Congress's complaint that it 
had been cheated in a vote of confidence in the state's 
Legislative Assembly (LA) earlier that day.  The BJP's Parrikar 
had won that vote after his allies in the LA employed some 
heavy-handed tactics that prevented Congress parliamentarians 
from voting in full force.  Commentators have questioned the 
legitimacy of both Governor Jamir's and the BJP politicians' 
actions of February 2, and it remains to be seen whether the new 
Congress government can withstand the legal and political 
challenges that it will undoubtedly face in the coming weeks. 
The week's events may mark the end of the period of relative 
stability that characterized Goa's politics under the BJP's 
Parrikar in the past two and a half years, and herald in a 
return of the divisive politics that gave Goa ten chief 
ministers in the nine years prior to Parrikar's ascension to 
power. End Summary. 
 
Goa's Political Crisis:  Background 
----------------------------------- 
 
2.(U) The political crisis in India's smallest state began on 
January 27, when Chief Minister (CM) Manohar Parrikar sacked 
Planning Minister Babush Monserette.  BJP politician Parrikar, 
CM in Goa for the past two and a half years, fired Monserette 
ostensibly over corruption allegations.  Other observers claim, 
however, that the CM preemptively removed Monserette after 
suspecting that Monserette was preparing to defect to the 
opposition Congress camp.  Congress had purportedly offered 
Monserette the CM job if he agreed to resign and force new 
elections that Congress was confident of winning. 
 
New Law Tested for First Time in Goa's Crisis 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
3. (U) Three of Monserette's supporters in the Legislative 
Assembly (LA) resigned out of protest. With the four 
resignations (Monserette was also a member of the LA), the size 
of the Goa parliament dropped from 40 to 36 seats due to a new 
national law passed in 2004.  The law, being tested in practice 
for the first time, stipulates that individual members of the 
legislative assembly (MLAs) must also leave the parliament if 
they desert their faction.  They cannot simply join another 
faction.  The law was designed to prevent individual defections 
from causing a change in governments.  Still, Monserette's three 
supporters left in the hope that their departure would disrupt 
the BJP majority and bring about new elections. 
 
One-man Parliamentary Factions Immune from New Law? 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
4. (U) In addition to the four BJP resignations, two other MLAs 
left the BJP camp.  However, both did not leave the parliament, 
as they each represented a one-person faction.  One of the two, 
independent MLA Philipe Neri Rodriguez, was to play a key role 
in the subsequent events.  Both announced that they would 
henceforth ally themselves with Congress.  Their move was 
apparently covered by the new law because in each case an entire 
"faction" was leaving the government and changing sides.  As a 
result of these musical chairs, the BJP camp wound up with 17 
MLAs as opposed to 18 supporting Congress.  (Note: The position 
of speaker is not counted in the tallying of the party strengths 
since the speaker only votes to break ties.  The speaker, Viswas 
Satarkar, was also to play a key role as events unfolded). 
 
BJP Tries to Hoodwink Congress..... 
----------------------------------- 
 
5. (U) CM Parrikar decided to call the equivalent of a vote of 
confidence for February 2.  The BJP was hoping to declare 
independent MLA Rodriguez' crossover invalid, leaving the BJP 
and Congress alliances with 17 MLAs each.  In the event of a 
draw vote, speaker Satarkar, a close ally of the CM, would cast 
the deciding vote in the BJP government's favor.  Before the 
vote, the BJP tried to disqualify Rodriguez on the grounds that 
he was still a card-carrying BJP member, although he won his 
assembly seat as an independent candidate.  Assembly speaker 
Satarkar then tried to use a little known procedure to exclude 
SUBJECT: CONGRESS REGAINS POWER IN GOA AFTER CONSTITUTIONALLY 
QUESTIONABLE MANEUVERING ON ALL SIDES 
Rodriguez from the voting.   Fighting ensured as Congress MLAs 
came to Rodriguez' defense.  After Rodriguez was forcibly 
removed and several Congress MLAs left the plenum in the hope of 
defending him, speaker Satarkar quickly called a vote that led 
to an 18-6 victory for incumbent CM Parrikar. 
 
...But Fails After Governor Intervenes 
-------------------------------------- 
 
6. (U) Congress MLAs quickly turned to Governor S.C. Jamir. 
Jamir, arguing that the Chief Minister and the speaker had 
misused their authority when conducting the vote, dismissed the 
BJP government.  He quickly asked Goa Congress leader Pratapsinh 
Rane to form a government that was sworn in late on February 2. 
Independent candidate Rodriguez, whose support was key to the 
Congress victory, was named as Rane's deputy. 
 
Commentators Question Legality of Governor's Actions 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
7. (U) Most commentators questioned whether Governor Jamir acted 
within his constitutional authority when sacking the BJP 
government.  Former Attorney General Soli J Sorabjee told the 
press that the Governor's move was "patently illegal."  If the 
governor felt that the BJP's maneuver was illegal, he should 
have ordered the CM to prove his majority by a correct vote of 
the parliament, Sorabjee said.  Former Solicitor General Harish 
Salve speculated that the Indian Supreme Court would likely 
examine the legality of the Governor's action.  The Governor did 
have some defenders, however, within the Congress ranks.  One 
former minister said the Indian Constitution covered the 
Governor's action. 
 
8. (U) The BJP has already announced that it will contest the 
ousting of its government.  BJP leaders, led by former PM 
Vajpayee and Parikkar, were to meet with President Kalam on 
February 3 to protest Parikkar's dismissal. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9. (SBU) The constitutional legitimacy of both Governor Jamir 's 
and speaker Satarkar's actions on February 2 appears less than 
iron-clad.  It remains to be seen whether the new Congress-led 
government will withstand the legal and political challenges 
that it will no doubt face in the coming weeks.  Its fate could 
likely remain in doubt even if it can establish its formal 
legitimacy, since it has only a one-vote majority in an assembly 
where, as the events of the past week have shown, political 
opportunism is in no short supply.  Should the disruptions of 
the past few weeks continue into the medium term, it could mark 
a return to the instable politics that characterized Goa's 
politics in the past ten years.  Parrikar was credited with 
bringing in a reign of reasonable stability that also had a 
positive impact on the business climate in Goa.  Prior to 
Parrikar's ascension to power two and a half years ago, the Goan 
parliament had elected ten chief ministers in nine years.  End 
Comment. 
 
SIMMONS