US embassy cable - 02ABUJA882

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000882 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: 18/03/02 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: OBASANJO NOT DOING WELL ACCORDING NASSARAWA STATE 
GOVERNOR ADAMU: BUT MAY BE THE BEST WE CAN DO 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER FOR REASONS 1.5(B) 
AND (D) 
 
 
1. (C)  SUMMARY: On February 16, Governor Alhaji Abdullah 
Adamu warmly welcomed Ambassador Jeter him as the first 
American Ambassador to ever visit Nassarawa State. Adamu 
noted that the dangers to democracy were mounting and gave 
low marks to Obasanjo as a politician and a communicator. 
However, Adamu did not see an alternative to Obasanjo in 
2003; for the sake of stability he thought Obasanjo should 
return to office. Adamu believed that Ibrahim Babangida, 
too clearly identified with military rule, would garner 
little popular support. End Summary 
 
 
2. (C)  During a February 15 visit to Benue State, the 
Ambassador, stopped in the capital city of Lafia to visit 
Nassarawa Governor Abdullah Adamu. Adamu, head of the 
Governor's Forum, is a well respected political figure who 
prefers to do most of his work behind the scenes and 
outside the public glare. 
 
 
3. (C)  Adamu stated that Nigeria, politically, was "not 
well." According to Adamu, two major problems plague 
Nigeria as it moves toward the 2003 elections.  First, 
there is a systematic, deliberate intention by some to 
undermine democracy by constantly focusing on its failures 
without offering solutions.  These attacks are effective 
because "expectations for democracy were high and 
Nigerians' patience is low." 
 
 
4. (C)  Second, poverty, and youth unemployment are being 
exploited by certain well- heeled Nigerians, especially 
retired military officers who were flushed out of political 
positions upon the return to democracy. Adamu implied that 
these provocateurs could exploit poverty by shelling out 
Naira to forment unrest and violence along ethnic, 
religious and regional lines.  The Governor suggested that 
although these people may not be colluding consciously, 
they have a common enemy in the government and their 
efforts collectively have seriously injured the Obasanjo 
Administration. 
 
 
5. (C)  Assessing Obasanjo's chances of re-election, Adamu 
said that the President had lost popularity in the North 
because he failed to give enough attention to the states in 
that region. People were feeling a sense of betrayal. 
However, "when the chips are down" some of the Northern 
leaders will "forgive and support him."  Adamu contended 
that Obasanjo still has a problem with his fellow Yorubas, 
who have never forgiven him for not manipulating the 1979 
election in favor of Awolowo. 
 
 
6. (C)  The Governor scored Obasanjo low on political 
strategy, public relations and information management.  He 
cited the Electoral Act as an example of Obasanjo's 
failing. He suggested that the bill could have been worked 
in a way that would not have pitted the central government 
against the governors and much of the rest of the country. 
Instead, the Administration had allowed the tenure of local 
governments to become a major political issue. 
 
 
7. (C)  Despite Obasanjo's problems, Adamu did not see an 
alternative that could stabilize the country.  While the 
name of former Head of State Ibrahim Babangida is on the 
lips of many as an emerging contender, Adamu discounted the 
idea of a Babangida presidency.  Because he is so closely 
associated with military rule and all of the abuses that 
emerged from it, Adamu thought an IBB candidacy would open 
old wounds and could destabilize the country, "That's not 
the way to sincerely fight corruption," he stressed. 
 
 
8. (C)  Governor Adamu thought the United States should 
encourage Obasanjo and the country to support democratic 
continuity and sustain Nigeria's democratic institutions. 
"If we don't handle the transition well, it will create 
problems we can't estimate," he concluded. 
 
 
9. (C)  Comment: Adamu does not seek the spotlight as much 
as some his gubernatorial colleagues but he is considered 
an astute politician whose views are respected by his 
peers.  Adamu is part of a growing chorus lamenting the 
state of national politics and criticizing the President's 
performance; however, his view that currently there is no 
alternative figure who can better stabilize the country is 
telling. His low estimation of a potential Babangida 
candidacy is a reminder that many along the political elite 
as well as ordinary citizens, see a Babangida candidacy as 
a potential step backwards. End Comment 
JETER