US embassy cable - 05AMMAN842

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000842 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KDEM, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: PRIVATE REACTIONS TO IRAQI ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 785 
     B. AMMAN 772 
     C. AMMAN 723 
     D. AMMAN 713 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) Reactions of post contacts to the elections in Iraq 
ranged from dismissive to strongly positive, with most 
expressing cautious optimism.  Jordanians and Sunni Iraqis 
were predictably very concerned with the role of Sunnis in 
the new government.  One Iraqi election candidate, currently 
in Amman, claims to have seen final out-of-country voting 
(OCV) results for Jordan that gave strong support for the 
Sistani-endorsed list of candidates.  End Summary. 
 
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IRAQI BUSINESSMEN "PROUD" OF ELECTIONS 
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2.  (C) In the aftermath of the January 30 elections in Iraq, 
emboffs have contacted several Iraqis who either reside in or 
frequently travel to Jordan.  Representatives of the 
well-established Iraqi business community in Amman were 
almost uniformly upbeat.  Several said they were "very proud" 
that the elections appeared fair, clean and well-organized, 
with one contact comparing the voting to a "national 
wedding."  Others were more cautious in their praise, stating 
that the elections were a "good first step" toward a better 
future. 
 
3.  (C) Tribal leader Shiekh Tariq al-Abdalah from Anbar 
province, who regularly shuttles between Amman and Dubai, 
told econoff that the elections were "very positive."  He 
said that Sunni leaders who weren't able to come forward 
before are now "eager to talk" in hopes of finding a unifying 
path to the future.  He claimed to be in close contact with 
other Anbar figures who are working on a strategy to 
re-integrate Sunnis into the political process.  Abdalah was 
very disturbed, however, by rumors from Baghdad that Sunnis 
who did not participate in the elections would be shut out of 
government and the constitution-drafting process, saying such 
a move would be "very dangerous." 
 
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JORDANIANS STRESS SUNNI ROLE 
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4.  (C) Jordanian contacts similarly had positive words for 
election logistics, but were often quick to point out low 
Sunni participation.  Outspoken MP Dr. Abdur Rahim Malhas 
(East Banker, Amman) said the elections were organized well, 
but added they "did not reflect a real and full 
representation of the Iraqi people."  Civil society leader 
Jamal Rifai likewise said that while the elections were 
"carried out successfully," they were nevertheless flawed as 
"a high percentage of the Iraqi people did not cast ballots." 
 Rifai stressed that stability in Iraq could not be achieved 
without "real participation from Sunnis."  Political analyst 
Oraib Rantawi commented that the elections "might be a huge 
step in the right direction" and that they showed that there 
was "a light at the end of the tunnel" to the current 
violence in Iraq.  However, he said that no true solution 
would be achieved until the new government actively included 
those who boycotted the elections. 
 
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A SISTANI VICTORY IN JORDAN? 
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5.  (C) Malik al-Ghaffour, an Iraqi independent candidate in 
the elections currently in Amman, claimed to econoff February 
2 that he had seen the final OCV results for Jordan. 
According to Ghaffour, 26 parties and independents received 
most of the 20,000 plus votes cast in Jordan, with the 
Sistanti-backed list of candidates receiving the highest 
total followed by Allawi's party with "significantly fewer" 
votes.  The Chaldean and the Monarchist lists, Ghaffour said, 
each received about 500 votes, with the rest of the electoral 
field garnering fewer than 100 ballots each.  Ghaffour (a 
secular Shia) fumed that the local "fanatics" had turned out 
in force for the Sistani list while he had only won about 45 
votes in Jordan despite spending $200,000 of his own money on 
his campaign. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  (C) OCV ballot counts for Jordan and other countries will 
not be disclosed for several days and post cannot assess the 
reliability of Ghaffour's claims.  While King Abdullah has 
been strongly supportive of the Iraqi elections (ref a), many 
Jordanians are nervous over the prospect of a Shia-dominated 
Iraq. 
 
MINIMIZE CONSIDERED 
HALE