US embassy cable - 05LILONGWE105

UNCLAS LILONGWE 000105 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S - GALANEK 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, MI, Political, United Democratic Front 
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY POISED FOR MAJOR SPLIT 
 
1.  SUMMARY: Amid the continuing rift within Malawi's 
ruling United Democratic Front (UDF), two senior party 
officials have resigned their positions on the party's 
National Executive Committee.  Former president Muluzi, 
in his capacity as party chairman, is now openly seeking 
to expel President Mutharika from the UDF.  Meanwhile 
President Mutharika appears to building new political 
alliances.  END SUMMARY. 
 
RESIGNATIONS, FIRINGS AND NEW ALLIANCES 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2.  UDF Publicity Secretary Salule Masangwi and Director 
of Agricultural Affairs Dr. Ben Dzowela resigned this 
week, the latest event in the ever-widening rift between 
former President Bakili Muluzi, who remains UDF National 
Chairman, and President Bingu wa Mutharika.  Dzowela, a 
former ambassador-at-large and erstwhile party loyalist, 
said in a statement released to the press that he had 
resigned in part due to "manipulative efforts that are 
being made by the National Chairman, Dr Bakili Muluzi... 
drunk with power to selfishly and deliberately frustrate 
the efforts of the State President, Dr. Bingu wa 
Mutharika and his administration's determined resolve 
fight graft and corruption." 
 
2.  Earlier in the week Minister of Home Affairs and 
Internal Security Uladi Mussa claimed that the ruling UDF 
is planning to expel President Bingu wa Mutharika from 
the party.  Mussa, who on January 30 walked out of UDF 
national executive meeting in protest, said party leaders 
had already decided to expel Mutharika and the executive 
committee had refused to discuss the matter. Mussa, who 
is seen as a Mutharika loyalist, this week lost his 
position as the UDF's Regional Governor in Malawi's 
Central Region after Muluzi dissolved the three UDF 
regional committees.  Only those loyal to Muluzi were 
maintained or appointed to new committees announced 
immediately after dissolution of the old ones.  In 
another twist to the plot, there were unconfirmed reports 
that should Mutharika be expelled from the party, Muluzi 
would be arrested shortly thereafter on corruption 
charges. 
 
3. Mutharika has been meeting informally in recent days 
with leaders of some of the smaller parties, an 
indication that he may be building new alliances. 
Supporters of two of those parties were prominently 
placed at the front of the crowd at a major policy launch 
event last weekend.  Also this week, opposition leader 
John Tembo, who heads the Malawi Congress Party, attended 
a presidential event and was seated front row center. 
Tembo has not attended this type of event in the past, 
and the president went out of his way to publicly greet 
the opposition leader in front of the cameras.  The media 
continues to speculate that Mutharika will form his own 
party, although the president has denied any intention to 
do so. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
4.  The advent of respected political figures publicly 
"choosing sides" further emphasizes the deepening divide 
between supporters of Mutharika and Muluzi, which began 
with the president's corruption crackdown and may well 
end with the complete fragmentation of the party.  If 
Muluzi does expel Mutharika from the UDF, our reading of 
Malawi's constitution is that it would have no impact on 
the presidency.  In any case, it is apparent that if 
Mutharika does leave the party, he will take a large 
number of officials with him and further marginalize 
Muluzi's place on the national political scene. 
Mutharika's expulsion from the UDF could also make an 
informal alliance between Government and the opposition 
more palatable to both sides, strengthening the 
President's hand in advancing economic reforms.  The 
political stability of the country is not at risk, though 
the future of the UDF certa