US embassy cable - 05PARIS651

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000651 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2015 
TAGS: PREL, LE, SY, FR, UNSC 
SUBJECT: GOF WELCOMES MARONITE PATRIARCH VISIT TO PARIS; 
SEEKS TO HIGHLIGHT LEBANON AS NEXT BIG REGIONAL ELECTION 
 
REF: BEIRUT 282 (EXDIS NOTAL) 
 
Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: The GoF continued high-profile outreach to 
Lebanon's opposition with the January 28-29 visit to Paris of 
Maronite Patriarch Sfeir, who met with President Chirac and 
FM Barnier and had a historic, private meeting with 
Paris-based Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun. 
Chirac stressed to Sfeir the urgent need for Lebanon's 
opposition to remain united.  MFA contacts described Sfeir as 
cautious and pessimistic on the state of Lebanon in his 
meeting with Barnier.  Sfeir stressed the need to avoid a 
rupture between Lebanon and Syria and questioned what means 
existed to enforce UNSCR 1559.  French officials described 
Sfeir as partly satisfied with the new Lebanese electoral 
law, which favors Christians.  At the same time, Sfeir 
asserted that some 400,000 Syrians had become Lebanese 
citizens and would vote in villages where they would seek to 
turn the outcome in Syria's favor.  French officials 
expressed concern that Syria is seeking to facilitate former 
General Aoun's return to Lebanon in order to further fracture 
Lebanon's opposition; Presidency contacts appeared reassured 
that Aoun would work with the opposition, despite his past 
destabilizing role in Lebanon.  French officials added that 
UNSYG Representative Terje Roed-Larsen's upcoming visit to 
Damascus and Beirut would be important in maintaining 
pressure for 1559 implementation; Chirac will seek a meeting 
with Larsen in Paris upon his return from the region. 
Summing up on next steps, Presidency officials stressed that 
Chirac would like to inscribe Lebanon's spring elections 
within the context of growing democratization in the region, 
as a follow-up to elections in Afghanistan, Palestine, and 
Iraq; Chirac reportedly will stress this point during his 
meeting with President Bush later this month.  End summary. 
 
SFEIR MEETINGS WITH CHIRAC, BARNIER 
----------------------- 
 
2. (C) Poloff discussed the January 28-29 visit to Paris of 
Maronite Patriarch Sfeir and next steps on Lebanon/Syria with 
Presidency Technical Advisor on the Middle East/Americas 
Dominique Boche February 2 with MFA DAS-equivalent for 
Egypt/Levant Christian Jouret February 1.  Jouret reported 
that Sfeir had a 30-minute one-on-one meeting with Chirac 
January 28, followed by a lunch in Sfeir's honor with other 
French officials present.  The Patriarch met later that day 
for 45 minutes with FM Barnier, and had a private meeting 
with exiled General Michel Aoun in Paris January 29. 
Boche confirmed that Chirac's main message to Sfeir was the 
need for Lebanon's opposition to remain united; Chirac also 
asked the Patriarch to use his "moral authority" to help 
discourage rivalries among Christian politicians or between 
Christians and other elements of the opposition.  (Note: 
Jouret told us that neither he or his boss, MFA 
A/S-equivalent for Middle East/North Africa Jean-Francois 
Thibault, had received a readout of the Chirac-Sfeir 
one-on-one discussion, but he speculated that Chirac's 
message was along the same lines described by Boche. End 
note.) 
 
3. (C) On the Barnier-Sfeir discussion, Jouret reported that 
the Patriarch expressed deep pessimism on Lebanon's current 
situation and showed caution in discussing Syria, which he 
referred to continually as "the neighbor" rather than 
mentioning Damascus directly.  Sfeir described a somber 
political and economic climate in Lebanon, where most 
educated youth, Christian and non-Christian, were emigrating 
to France and the U.S., amid a sharp decline in the Christian 
population in the Middle East in general.  Sfeir asserted 
that some 40,000 Christians had fled Iraq for Syria, while 
the Palestinian Christian population, due to emigration, had 
dwindled to 10,000, from an earlier level of 100,000.  Sfeir 
concluded that Lebanon was "losing control of itself," with 
social divisions growing between the rich and the poor. 
Sfeir was also cautious with Barnier on UNSCR 1559, which he 
described as a "good text," while questioning whether 
enforcement means existed. Sfeir cautioned that pressure on 
Syria should be exercised with great care and precision; he 
warned against provoking a rupture between Syria and Lebanon, 
which would leave Lebanon in a very dangerous condition. 
Sfeir stressed that he hoped for normal, egalitarian 
relations with Syria; he described Lebanon's pro-Syrian 
politicians as having no love for Syria, but pursuing their 
own economic interests instead. 
 
4. (C) On Lebanon's upcoming parliamentary elections, Jouret 
described Sfeir as partly satisfied with the new draft 
electoral law, in that the "kaza" district system favored 
Christians, everywhere except Beirut.  At the same time, 
Sfeir warned Barnier that some 400,000 Syrians had become 
Lebanese citizens and would vote in the upcoming elections; 
he warned these Syrian/Lebanese would vote in villages where 
their turnout could turn the vote in Syria's favor.  Asked 
for GoF views on the draft electoral law, Jouret described it 
as "not bad," and affirmed that as long as Lebanon's 
government remained confessionally based, smaller electoral 
districts based on the "kaza" system made sense.  At the same 
time, it was clear the draft electoral law, by dividing 
Beirut into three districts, was designed to weaken Hariri, 
who was now viewed as the enemy by Syria and the GOL. 
 
AOUN FACTOR 
----------- 
 
5. (C) Jouret described Sfeir's January 29 meeting with Aoun 
as historic and the first encounter between the two since the 
Lebanese civil war.  Expressing personal views, Jouret said 
he was uncertain whether Aoun would return to Lebanon, as 
recent press reports have suggested, given that 
Syrian-initiated overtures could amount to a massive trap. 
Presidency advisor Boche appeared more convinced that an Aoun 
return was imminent, confirming that the GoF had been in 
discreet contact with the General, who appeared confident 
that the judicial obstacles to his return to Lebanon would be 
lifted.  Boche conceded that the GoF had been struck by the 
sudden Lebanese announcement that Aoun's return would be 
welcomed, which suggested a Syrian attempt to further 
fracture the opposition, by putting one more figure in the 
mix.  At the same time, Boche suggested that the GoF was 
reassured by Aoun's assurances that he would work with the 
opposition and not be the factor of division he was 15 years 
ago. 
 
LARSEN VISIT 
----------- 
 
6. (C) Boche stressed that the upcoming visit of UNSYG 
Representative Terje Roed-Larsen to Beirut and Damascus would 
be an important opportunity to stress the international 
community's determination on UNSCR 1559 implementation.  The 
GoF had wanted Larsen's visit to take place sooner, and 
wanted Larsen to set up a mechanism of regular visits, or a 
presence on the ground, to keep the pressure on in advance of 
the April SYG report on 1559 implementation.  The Presidency 
was seeking to arrange a Larsen-Chirac meeting, which would 
likely take place upon Larsen's return from the region, some 
time next week. 
 
LEBANON AS THE NEXT BIG ELECTION 
----------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Summing up, Boche asserted that a new dynamic had 
begun to appear on UNSCR 1559 implementation, with the 
Lebanese opposition sensing that they had the support of the 
international community behind them, and thereby showing 
greater confidence in rejecting a permanent Syrian presence 
in Lebanon.  At the same time, Syria appeared to be reacting 
to pressure, through such measures as the elevation of Deputy 
FM Walid Muallem, about which the GoF still remained 
skeptical.  With the momentum of successful elections in 
Afghanistan, Palestine, and now Iraq, President Chirac wanted 
to inscribe Lebanon's spring elections within the context of 
growing democratization throughout the region.  Boche noted 
that President Chirac had sought to highlight this point in 
his January 31 conversation with President Bush, and that 
Chirac would seek to expand upon the idea during his working 
dinner with the President in Brussels February 21. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8. (C) Although the GoF maintains that the 
Israeli-Palestinian issue and Iraq are the most pressing 
regional issues before us, Syria/Lebanon remains the regional 
issue in which President Chirac is most personally 
implicated.  Any new gestures that we make to further promote 
our agenda for democracy and freedom in Lebanon -- as so 
eloquently proposed in Beirut 282 -- would be very 
well-received by the French and would be well-timed to 
coincide with upcoming high-level meetings with GoF leaders. 
End comment. 
 
 
 
 
 
Leach