US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV633

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000633 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, SOCI, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI INTERNAL, ISRAELI SOCIETY, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: NEW DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT FUELS DISENGAGEMENT DEBATE 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer; Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1. (C) Summary and Comment: A recent study claiming that the 
Palestinian population in the West Bank and Gaza is 
overestimated by up to 1.5 million people has made headlines 
in Israel and provided ammunition to opponents of Prime 
Minister Ariel Sharon's disengagement plan.  The new numbers, 
however, did little to sway the Prime Minister or his 
supporters, who have often cited the Palestinian "demographic 
threat" to the Jewish majority as a main reason for 
disengagement.  By maintaining control over what will become 
a majority Arab population between the Mediterranean and 
Jordan River, proponents of disengagement have argued, Israel 
would lose its character as a Jewish, democratic state. 
Regardless of whether this argument -- or the population 
figures contained in the new report -- are valid, PM Sharon 
remains determined to move ahead with his disengagement plan. 
 End Summary and Comment. 
 
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Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics 
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2. (U) Israeli demographers, led by Professors Sergio Della 
Pergola in Jerusalem and Professor Arnon Sofer in Haifa, 
first warned of a "demographic threat" in the late 1990s, 
after analyzing data released by the Palestinians Central 
Bureau of Statistics in 1997.  Although the details vary 
depending on the model used, these initial studies predicted 
high growth rates for the Palestinian population.  Della 
Pergola's model predicts that the Jewish population in 
Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza will be a minority by 2010. 
Sofer maintains that even without the Territories, the 
proportion of Israel's population that is Jewish will 
decrease (from over 80 percent today to 64 percent in 2020). 
 
3. (U) In January 2005 the American Research Initiative (ARI) 
issued a new study claiming that the "demographic threat" is 
exaggerated.  ARI's report said that the generally accepted 
figures for the combined Palestinian (3.83 million) and 
Israeli Arab (1.3 million) population living in Israel, the 
West Bank, and Gaza are inflated by as many as 1.5 million 
people.  ARI's assessment is based upon registered births and 
deaths from the Palestinian Ministry of Health, immigration 
and emigration data from the Israeli Border Police, as well 
as statistics from the Israeli Ministry of Interior, the 
Civil Administration for the West Bank and Gaza (COGAT), and 
the Palestinian Central Elections Commission.  Using these 
statistics, ARI maintains that previously predicted 
Palestinian growth rates of 4-5 percent are unrealistically 
high.  ARI also claims that the PA's 1997 baseline improperly 
double-counted Arabs living in Jerusalem and included many 
non-resident holders of PA identity cards. 
 
4. (U) ARI concludes that the Palestinian population has 
remained stable at approximately 25 percent of the total 
population between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan 
River, where Jewish and Jewish-affiliated groups (e.g., 
Russian immigrants not considered Jewish under religious law) 
comprise a 60 percent majority.  According to ARI's findings, 
Jewish residents currently outnumber Arabs by a total of 
four-to-one inside Israel (including Jerusalem but not Gaza 
or most of the West Bank).  Upon releasing the report, ARI 
said that the challenge facing the GOI is one of dealing with 
a large Arab minority in Israel; not one of dealing with an 
eventual Arab majority. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Is Israel's Status as a Jewish State in Danger? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
5. (U) For the demographers, the debate is a dispute over the 
actual size and growth rate of the Palestinian (and Israeli 
Arab) populations in relation to Israel's Jewish community. 
Della Pergola, among others, claims that fertility rates used 
by ARI are "unrealistically low;" while the birth rate among 
Palestinians is falling, Della Pergola notes that families in 
the West Bank still have an average of 5.4 children, while 
those in Gaza have 7.4. 
 
6. (C) Behind the academic facades, however, are conflicting 
socio-political agendas.  Although the U.S. businessman who 
financed the ARI report denied to poloff that he has any 
political agenda, he is known to support settler groups and 
is the founder of the "American Friends of the Golan."  Sofer 
recently sent a letter to PM Ariel Sharon urging him to 
physically separate Israel from the Palestinians or face "the 
end of the Jewish state of Israel." 
 
7. (C) For the politicians, the statistics are important 
because they cut to the core of Israel's unique status as a 
Jewish and democratic state.  In the past few years, 
politicians from almost every sector of the political 
spectrum have used the data to argue both for and against 
policies such as accelerated negotiations with the 
Palestinians, construction of the fence, and disengagement. 
On the left, the Labor Party has long maintained that the 
rapid increase in the Palestinian population is cause for 
urgency in concluding a broad agreement with the PA.  Vice PM 
Shimon Peres once told reporters that "the demographic clock 
is not ticking in Israel's favor." 
 
8. (C) Opponents to disengagement have used demographics 
(including the new ARI study) to counter such arguments. 
After hearing a presentation of the report, the Chairman of 
the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Yuval 
Steinitz, told reporters that the research suggests that 
Israel can afford to remain in Gaza and the West Bank for a 
longer period of time until a political solution is reached. 
Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu caused an uproar last 
year when he claimed the only "demographic bomb" threatening 
Israel came from Israeli Arabs.  His Ministry later announced 
that a decrease in the birthrate among Israeli Arabs had been 
the result of cutbacks in child welfare allowances. 
 
9. (C) PM Sharon has not been swayed by the IRA statistics. 
The day after the report was released, Sharon publicly 
downplayed the numbers, saying he sees "no reason to worry 
about that."  In the past, he has used demographic data 
indirectly to support his disengagement plan, maintaining 
that withdrawal from overwhelmingly Palestinian areas will 
safeguard Israel's character as a Jewish, democratic state. 
Deputy Prime Minster Ehud Olmert has made similar arguments, 
raising the specter that Palestinians will oppose a two-state 
solution if they believe they will eventually comprise a 
majority of the population.  "I shudder to think that liberal 
Jewish organizations that shouldered the burden of the 
struggle against apartheid in South Africa will lead the 
struggle against us," he said when asked about possible 
Jewish rule over a majority Arab population. 
 
10. (C) Comment: In the end, the "demographic threat" is only 
one of Sharon's justifications for the disengagement plan. 
Even if further debate validates the new population figures 
in the ARA report, Sharon has other -- and more important -- 
strategic, economic, and political factors that will keep him 
on the path to disengagement.  More disturbing is that the 
politically explosive issue of demographics is now in play 
again and that the contradictory conclusions will be used by 
each side to advance its political aims, despite disputed 
facts. 
 
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KURTZER