US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI417

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000417 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS, ZHAO 
ZIYANG'S DEATH 
 
Summary:  In general, the intense news coverage of last 
Saturday's historic direct charter flights across the 
Taiwan Strait has died down as local dailies have 
switched their focus to covering local political issues 
such as the election of the president and vice 
president of the Legislative Yuan. 
 
Two English-language newspapers - "China Post" and 
"Taiwan News" - continued, however, to comment on the 
direct cross-Strait charter flights.  The former, a pro- 
unification publication, said the flights and Beijing's 
announcement Friday that it is willing to talk with 
Taiwan "indicate Beijing is ready to tolerate Taiwan's 
separate entity under the name Republic of China or 
Chinese Taipei."  The pro-independence "Taiwan News," 
however, said "it is wise for Taiwan to try to keep the 
atmosphere in cross-strait ties warm and thus make it 
even more embarrassing for Beijing to block progress 
toward dtente by enacting the `anti-secession' law." 
 
Two other newspapers carried pieces on China affairs. 
"China Times" published a commentary by Lin Chong-pin, 
a former Mainland Affairs Council vice chairman and 
former vice minister of the Ministry of National 
Defense, about Beijing having a new strategic framework 
whose goal is to replace the United States influence in 
East Asia.  The "Taipei Times" noted that "China's head- 
in-the sand approach towards Zhao [Ziyang's] political 
record is an indication of its willingness to deny 
reality, and of the gulf that separates it from the 
values that characterize civilized nations."  End 
summary. 
 
1. Cross-Strait Relations 
 
A) "PRC Favors ROC Status Quo" 
 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" noted in an editorial (2/1): 
 
"Beijing's latest overtures to Taiwan were all drowned 
out in Saturday's fanfare over the first direct 
commercial flights between the two sides in 56 years. 
 
"Taiwan's media made scant coverage of Beijing's 
announcement Friday that the mainland "is willing to 
talk with Taiwan `president' Chen Shui-bian' and the 
ruling Democratic Progressive Party as long as they 
`agree to return to the 1992 consensus and scrap the 
party's independence goal." 
 
This is the first time Beijing says it is ready to deal 
with the `separatist' Chen and the DPP; it is also the 
first time China Daily, Beijing's mouthpiece in 
English, calls him `president,' albeit in brackets. 
There are no harsh words. . 
 
"Beijing also assures Taiwan that the proposed anti- 
secession law is not aiming at unification but rather 
to preserve the status quo by preventing Taiwan from 
breaking away.  China has no intention of changing the 
status quo by forcing unification on Taiwan. 
 
"The remarks indicate Beijing is ready to tolerate 
Taiwan's separate entity under the name Republic of 
China or Chinese Taipei. .  Beijing has softened, if 
Taipei responds in kind, talks can be resumed soon." 
 
B) "Flights Offer Chance to Boost Tactical Role" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" 
editorialized (2/1): 
 
". It is clear that, as far as the DPP government is 
concerned, initiatives, such as the effort to re- 
engineer our constitution, do not aim to change our 
status quo of independence. 
 
"So long as Taiwan does not engage in unnecessary 
`provocative' moves toughing on the issue of 
sovereignty, Beijing will lose credible grounds to 
engage in arbitrary actions that could endanger the 
Taiwan Strait's stability. 
 
"From this perspective, the ball is now in the hands of 
the PRC authorities, since Beijing has announced its 
intention to arrange for its rubber stamp National 
People's Congress to enact an `anti-secession' law in 
March. 
 
"Beijing is in an embarrassing position as enacting the 
so-called law will demonstrate its intent to 
arbitrarily undermine the status quo to the world 
community, but refraining from enacting the bill now 
would cause the PRC regime to lose face. 
 
"Hence, it is wise for Taiwan to try to keep the 
atmosphere in cross-strait ties warm and thus make it 
even more embarrassing for the PRC regime to block 
progress toward dtente by enacting the `anti- 
secession' law. 
 
"Moreover, by adopting a stance on the possible 
expansion of the charter service and other goodwill 
measures to increase cross-strait interchanges, Taiwan 
can show her own sincerity to promote peace and 
stability. 
"From a geo-strategic point of view, Taiwan's best 
location lies in playing an integrative role to allow 
the industrial division of labor in the Asia-Pacific 
region function smoothly while at the same time rapidly 
upgrading the quality of our own society to widen the 
qualitative gap with the PRC. 
 
 
"The onset of direct cross-strait flights poses some 
risks to Taiwan's national security environment, but 
also serves to bring neighboring economic interests 
into the web of cross-strait relations. . 
 
"The risk lies in the trend of improved of [sic] cross- 
strait exchanges to enhance the degree of incorporation 
of Taiwan into China.  But such exchanges will also 
bring both Taiwan and China deeper into the orbit of 
the Asia-Pacific economic web and thus tend to enhance 
Taiwan's long-term security. . 
 
"If this condition can be met, the accomplishment of 
non-stop charter flights should help in general to ease 
the degree of confrontation between Taiwan and China, 
enhance the competitiveness of each side, enhance peace 
and stability in this region and win affirmation from 
the world community. 
 
"From this angle, Taiwan should consider grasping the 
opportunity to step forward to the regularly scheduled 
cross-strait commercial air services, especially to 
expedite air cargo shipments. 
 
"Displaying wiliness to expedite cross-strait 
interchange and open discussions without conditions 
will enhance Taiwan's ability to appeal to support from 
the international powers, especially the United States, 
and build her image as a peace-maker instead of a 
trouble-maker. 
 
"By so doing, Taiwan may be able to consolidate the 
advantages of a geo-strategic position as a hub for the 
regional economic development and demonstrate the 
provocative nature of Beijing's plans to enact its so- 
called `anti-secession' law." 
 
C) "Use Wisdom to Secure a Victory" 
 
Professor Lin Chong-pin of Tamkang University's 
Graduate Institute of International Affairs and 
Strategic Studies noted in the weekly column of the 
centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" (2/1): 
 
"`To gain control of East Asia without having to wage a 
war' is the new big strategic [framework] of Beijing's. 
This strategy includes policies governing China's 
diplomacy, national defense, cross-Strait [position] 
and domestic situation, and with the increasing 
coordination among these various policies, the final 
outcome and effect [of these policies] are expected to 
be greatly enlarged.  Even though Beijing did not 
disclose it, one of its ultimate goals is to use 
economic and cultural power to replace the United 
States in East Asia, which now still plays a leading 
role in the region.  Beijing is also rapidly developing 
and modernizing its military in an attempt to reinforce 
the effects created by its non-military (e.g. 
diplomatic) means, but it's better for Beijing to keep 
[its military] ready just in case and not use it. . 
 
"The strategy toward Taiwan is just a part of Beijing's 
big strategic framework, and [Chinese President] Hu 
Jintao is expected to use more diversified and new 
approaches [in this aspect] . 
 
"For [U.S. President George W.] Bush's second term, 
even though he has a strong will, the privilege of 
[being considered the world's sole superpower] no 
longer exists.  The economic strength of China keeps on 
rising, and its cultural influence is expanding, too. 
Both sides of the Taiwan Strait differ greatly in size, 
and Beijing does not want to give up the use of force 
and other means like diplomatic isolation, political 
belittling and sowing discord in Taiwan's society.  To 
secure a victory in the face of a strong power, Taiwan 
needs to use its wisdom." 
 
2. Zhao Ziyang's Death 
 
"Zhao's Death Shakes Beijing's Rule" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
commented in an editorial (2/1): 
 
". Beijing's reluctance to rehabilitate Zhao's 
reputation shows that although China is adopting a 
liberal approach in economic development, it remains an 
authoritarian regime and is ignorant of the concepts of 
democracy and human rights.  China's leadership will 
not ignore any force that could possibly challenge the 
rule of the Communist Party. . [D]emocratic change, 
embodied by Zhao, is certainly a threat. . 
 
"China's head-in-the sand approach towards Zhao's 
political record is an indication of its willingness to 
deny reality, and of the gulf that separates it from 
the values that characterize civilized nations. 
Because of what Zhao represents, his passing could 
serve as a platform on which the Chinese government 
could show to its people and the international 
community that it is capable of facing up to historical 
errors, and that it is willing to correct past 
mistakes.  Beijing has missed this opportunity. ." 
 
PAAL