US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI796

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000796 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ECON, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: CONGRESS SET TO WIN IN HARYANA BUT THE VICTORY 
MARGIN IS NOT CLEAR 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Pundits, journalists, and politicians agree 
that Congress will emerge victorious in Haryana's February 3 
Legislative Assembly elections, winning from 60 to 80 seats 
in the 90 member Assembly.  Growing disgust with the misrule 
and corruption of the ruling Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) 
has caused its supporters to abandon it in favor of Congress. 
 The BJP has no base in Haryana and is expected to win only 
5-8 seats.  With the outcome not in doubt, the outstanding 
questions are the Congress margin of victory and who will 
become Chief Minister.  The Congress capture of another state 
will represent the latest in an unbroken string of 
Congress/United Progressive Alliance (UPA) victories.  If it 
also wins in Jharkhand and Bihar (septel), the UPA position 
could be strong enough to ensure a full five-year term.  End 
Summary. 
 
Press Sees a Congress Wave 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Haryana State Legislative Assembly elections will 
take place on February 3, with votes counted and results to 
be announced on February 27.  On January 25 and 27-28, Poloff 
traveled throughout the state meeting with local leaders of 
Congress, the INLD and the BJP, as well as several 
journalists for a first-hand look at the campaign. 
 
3.  (U) Pundits and the press are unanimous in predicting a 
Congress victory.  The current INLD government, headed by 
Haryana Chief Minister Chautala, is locked in a three-way 
contest against Congress and the BJP.  Formerly allied with 
the BJP in the NDA, the INLD parted company just before the 
May 2004 national polls.  In that contest, the INLD lost all 
five of its Lok Sabha seats to Congress, with Congress 
winning nine of Haryana's 10 parliamentary seats.  On January 
27, BJP Chief L.K. Advani ruled out a future alliance with 
the INLD, saying that "We will never tie up with this party" 
as it "has worked against the BJP throughout its term in the 
state."  The BJP, which is running in all 90 constituencies, 
is telling voters that regional parties cannot deliver and 
they should only vote for national parties. 
 
4.  (U) Although a Congress victory is all but certain, deep 
divisions within the state party have come to the fore in 
this campaign.  There are at least six Congress contenders to 
become Chief Minister after the election, and four head their 
own factions in the Legislative Assembly.  Competition for 
Congress seats was intense and at least 12 disappointed 
ticket seekers broke ranks with their party and are running 
as independents.  On January 27, the Congress leadership 
suspended the "rebels" for six years.  The CM contenders have 
called for party unity, saying that they are leaving the 
decision of who will become CM to Sonia Gandhi and the party 
leadership. 
 
5.  (U) Congress released a manifesto on January 23, but most 
agree that it has no program for Haryana.  There is little 
dispute that the INLD's poor governance and development 
record has brought about its downfall.  A "Hindustan Times" 
reporter who accompanied CM Chautala on the campaign trail on 
January 26 reported that his "famed oratory skills...seemed 
to be missing, and the (old) excitement with which the crowds 
thronged him wherever he went is also not to be seen." 
 
Views of Local Journalists 
-------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Poloff met with four local journalists who agreed 
that a Congress victory is all but inevitable, and that it is 
not clear who will become the next CM, or what the margin of 
victory will be.  The "India Today" correspondent opined that 
if the Congress victory margin is small (60 seats or fewer), 
it is likely to name former CM and state Congress Chief 
Bhajan Lal, who is acceptable to the state's dominant Jat 
(farmer) caste.  However, if the margin is larger than 60 
seats, Sonia Gandhi will be tempted to name her own CM.  He 
noted that Haryana is important to Congress for its proximity 
to Delhi and as a major site for foreign investment. 
Congress must demonstrate that it can deliver good governance 
in this crucial state, he stressed. 
 
7.  (C) A "Tribune" correspondent confirmed that there was 
considerable resentment in Haryana against Chautala and the 
INLD.  Although he delivered some development, Chautala was 
arrogant, attempted to concentrate power within his family at 
the expense of his supporters, and would make no concessions 
to his BJP partners.  The correspondent predicted that 
Congress "rebels" would have no significant impact on the 
election outcome, and that Sonia Gandhi would select Haryana 
Dalit leader and Minister of State for Urban Employment and 
Poverty Alleviation Kumari Selja as CM to solidify the 
support of non-Jats behind Congress.  He opined that the INLD 
is likely to be reduced to 15 seats from its present 47.  If 
it drops below that, he noted, the party risks slipping into 
irrelevance. 
Views of Political Leaders 
-------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Two INLD leaders acknowledged that Congress was 
ahead, but refused to concede defeat.  While their party has 
a strong record on development, they insisted, leaving the 
NDA had been a mistake that has hurt its electoral chances. 
They noted that Congress was the main enemy, as the BJP poses 
no threat due to its lack of organization and a local base. 
They predicted that the BJP will win "less than eight" of 
Haryana's 90 seats. 
 
9.  (C) Two Congress leaders lamented the "arrogance" of 
their party, which they felt would reduce the victory margin. 
 If it were not for the rampant factionalism and ambition of 
their leaders, the party could have won 85 seats, they 
maintained.  Discipline broke down and the party leadership 
gave seats to their relatives, alienated and angering veteran 
Congressmen.  They predicted that the BJP rather than the 
INLD would benefit from Congress infighting, as sentiment in 
Haryana decidedly favors national parties.  Another Congress 
leader dismissed stories of "rebel" candidates, saying that 
most of those that won would immediately apply to rejoin 
Congress in any case. 
 
10.  (C) Both leaders pointed out serious political errors 
committed by Chautala, including his decision to withdraw 
subsidies on water and power for farmers, and his subsequent 
failure to provide either.  Chautala also ordered police to 
fire on angry farmers, who were protesting that they were 
being forced to pay for non-existent water and power.  By 
ordering the police to harass his political opponents, 
Chautala also allowed crime to go unchecked until the state 
was under a "reign of fear," as one put it.  Chautala also 
distributed lucrative state jobs amongst his many relatives 
and supporters. 
 
11.  (C) A BJP leader made it clear that while his party did 
not expect to do well in the contest, it had a long-term 
plan.  The BJP had little or no following in the state, as it 
had always allowed the INLD to dominate, so the BJP would 
henceforth operate independently, would seek no allies, and 
would use this election as an exercise to build up strength 
and prepare for the next contest.  He predicted that in five 
years the INLD would be reduced to insignificance, and that 
future contests would be two-way races between the BJP and 
Congress. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
12.  (C) Congress leaders are clearly elated at the prospect 
of capturing another state from the NDA, coming closer to 
regaining its traditional base in North India, and dealing a 
blow to the BJP in its Hindi heartland.  Congress already has 
a strong hold on Uttaranchal, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and 
Delhi, and is likely to capture Jharkhand and Haryana in this 
month's elections, while Bihar should remain in the hands of 
UPA ally Laloo Prasad Yadav (septel).  This would leave only 
Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in BJP control, 
and hand the party another in what has become a string of 
defeats.  An energized Congress is likely to set its sites 
next on Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, where it sees growing 
prospects for a return to power. 
 
12.  (C) Haryana has been a bellwether for Indian national 
politics, as it was among the first states to see large 
numbers of legislators defect to the opposition, and the rise 
of regional parties.  This election could indicate the 
beginning of another trend, as a severe INLD defeat could be 
an early sign that the Indian electorate has begun to tire of 
the parochialism and corruption of the regional parties and 
is beginning to return to the national parties.  Should 
Congress and its UPA allies win a clean sweep in all three 
states in this election, as many anticipate, it could also 
make it much more likely that this government will remain in 
power for its full five-year term, and should further 
strengthen Congress' hand within its fractious coalition -- 
opening space for progress on issues of concern to the US. 
MULFORD