US embassy cable - 05PARIS613

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000613 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; 
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA 
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE 
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA 
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA; 
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ ELECTIONS 
PARIS - TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 01, 2005 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
IRAQ ELECTIONS 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER LES ECHOS FEATURES AN OP-ED PENNED BY 
AMBASSADOR LEACH ENTITLED "FRANCO-AMERICAN TRADE RELATIONS: A 
SUCCESSFUL BUSINESS." "FRANCE AND THE U.S. ENJOY ECONOMIC 
RELATIONS WHICH ARE STRONG, MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL AND GROWING. 
AT THE CORE OF THIS ASSOCIATION THERE IS A COMMUNITY OF 
VALUES, SUCH AS DEMOCRACY. AND THE FUNDAMENTAL BELIEF IN 
FREEDOM OF TRADE AND WORLD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT." 
 
ALTHOUGH FRONT PAGES ARE MOSTLY DEVOTED TO DOMESTIC SOCIAL 
ISSUES, LIKE THE DEBATE AT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO REFORM THE 
LAW ON THE 35-HOUR WORKWEEK, MANY EDITORIALS AND OP-EDS 
CONTINUE TO BE DEVOTED TO THE IRAQI ELECTIONS, DEBATING ABOUT 
THE PROCESS TOWARDS DEMOCRACY AND THE CONCERNS WHICH A 
PRIMARILY SHIITE IRAQI GOVERNMENT SEEMS TO BE ELICITING IN 
ARAB COUNTRIES IN THE REGION. IN SEVERAL INSTANCES, - CATHOLIC 
LA CROIX AND LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE - THE EDITORIALS CLEARLY 
PRAISE PRESIDENT BUSH FOR ACHIEVING THIS FEAT. IN LEFT-OF- 
CENTER LIBERATION AN ANALYSIS BY JEAN-PIERRE PERRIN 
UNDERSCORES THE CONCERNS IN THE ARAB WORLD ABOUT A "SHIITE 
CRESCENT" IN THE REGION. (SEE PART C) 
 
IN A FRONT-PAGE OP-ED IN LE MONDE TITLED "`CONDI'S CATALOGUE", 
SENIOR EDITORIALIST ANDRE FONTAINE WRITES: "HER HEARING BEFORE 
THE SENATE WAS NOT JUST A FORMALITY. CONDOLEEZZA RICE NEEDED 
TO BE CONVINCING IN ORDER TO BE SWORN IN. BUT ALSO TO SHOW HER 
DESIRE TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH THOSE ALLIES WHOM SHE TREATED 
RATHER RUDELY." IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO HER VISIT TO 
PARIS ON FEBRUARY 8 IS NOTED. 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
IRAQ ELECTIONS 
 
"THE COURAGE OF THE IRAQIS" 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE IN AN UNSIGNED EDITORIAL (02/01): "THE 
NUMBER OF IRAQIS WHO VOTED IS IN ITSELF A MAJOR VICTORY FOR 
WHICH PRESIDENT BUSH CONGRATULATED HIMSELF. HIS OBSTINACY IN 
RESISTING THOSE WHO URGED HIM TO POSTPONE THE ELECTIONS, A 
TRAIT OF CHARACTER WHICH IS HIS STRENGTH AND HIS WEAKNESS, HAS 
SERVED HIM WELL THIS TIME AND IT WOULD BE INDECENT TO REPROACH 
HIM FOR OFFERING THE IRAQIS THIS CHANCE AT FREE ELECTIONS. NOW 
THE QUESTION ARISES ABOUT THE AMBITION OF CERTAIN AYATOLLAHS 
TO ESTABLISH AN IRAN-STYLE THEOCRACY. SOMETHING THAT WOULD 
WORRY NOT ONLY THE SUNNIS, BUT ALSO IRAQ'S OTHER NEIGHBORS AND 
WASHINGTON. IN THE MEANTIME PRESIDENT BUSH HAS REGISTERED A 
SUCCESS THAT WILL ALLOW HIM TO PREPARE AN EXIT STRATEGY FROM A 
CONFLICT WHICH IS INCREASINGLY UNPOPULAR IN THE U.S." 
 
"BUSH. AGAIN RE-ELECTED" 
BRUNO FRAPPAT IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX (02/01): "BETWEEN THE 
BALLOTS AND THE BOMBS, THE BALLOTS WON. AND BEHIND THE IRAQI 
VOTING CENTERS, THE MAN WHO DID EVERYTHING TO GET THEM GOING: 
PRESIDENT BUSH. WHEN HE VISITS EUROPE LATER THIS MONTH HE WILL 
BE ABLE TO PRESENT HIMSELF AS RE-ELECTED ONCE AGAIN. BUT THIS 
ELECTION CANNOT BE A WAY TO LEGITIMIZE THE WAR AFTER THE FACT. 
STILL, AT THIS POINT IN THE HISTORY OF IRAQ, THE STRATEGY OF 
THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION HAS SCORED POINTS AND THE MOST 
RETICENT AMONG THE ALLIES MUST SALUTE THIS. THE WORSE CASE 
SCENARIO HAS BEEN AVOIDED; THERE IS CHAOS BUT IT DOES NOT 
REIGN SUPREME." 
 
"THREE SIDES OF THE TRIANGLE" 
GERARD DUPUY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (02/01): "BY TURNING 
OUT IN SUCH GREAT NUMBERS, THE IRAQIS HAVE PROVEN THAT THEY 
TAKE DEMOCRACY MUCH MORE SERIOUSLY THAN MANY ARAB SPECIALISTS. 
BUT DEMOCRACY IN IRAQ IS BOTH A NEW AND EXPLOSIVE ISSUE. BY 
DEFINITION THE NEW MAJORITY EXCLUDES THE SUNNI MINORITY. WILL 
IRAQ SURVIVE THIS? BY VOTING ON SUNDAY THE IRAQIS VOTED LESS 
FOR DEMOCRACY THAN FOR RECOGNITION OF THE SHIITE ELEMENT. THE 
FIRST TASK OF THE IRAQI CONSTITUTION WILL BE TO FIND A MODUS 
VIVENDI FOR THE THREE SIDES OF THE TRIANGLE." 
 
"EUROPE STOPS SHORT OF CONGRATULATING THE U.S." 
ALEXANDRINE BOUILHET IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (02/01): 
"SURPRISED BY THE SUCCESS OF THE ELECTIONS IN IRAQ, THE 
EUROPEANS ARE CONGRATULATING EVERYONE, INCLUDING THEMSELVES, 
BUT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE U.S. . IN THEIR 
COMMUNIQU, THE FIVE PARAGRAPHS DEVOTED TO IRAQ MENTIONS 
NEITHER THE AMERICANS NOR THE BRITISH. AS A DIPLOMAT ON THE 
SIDE OF PEACE SAID, `THEY HAVE CONGRATULATED THEMSELVES ENOUGH 
AS IT IS.' MORE DIPLOMATICALLY, FRENCH FM BARNIER REMINDS ALL 
THAT THE U.S. IS `PART OF THE UN AND THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY.' MORE CONCRETELY, THE EUROPEANS ARE STILL RELUCTANT 
TO GET INVOLVED IN IRAQ. FOR BARNIER, `THE IRAQI TRAGEDY WILL 
NOT BE RESOLVED WITH MORE SOLDIERS.' STILL THE EUROPEANS MUST 
MAKE A `CONSTRUCTIVE' GESTURE BEFORE PRESIDENT BUSH'S VISIT TO 
BRUSSELS FEBRUARY 22 AND SECRETARY OF STATE CONDOLEEZZA RICE'S 
VISIT TO PARIS ON FEBRUARY 8. THIS IS WHY THE EU WILL BE 
OFFERING TO TRAIN IRAQI POLICE AND CIVIL SERVANTS, `BUT 
OUTSIDE IRAQ' SAYS PARIS AND BERLIN." 
 
"FROM CAIRO TO RIYADH, WORRY AND CONTEMPT" 
JEAN-PIERRE PERRIN IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (02/01): 
"BEFORE THE ELECTIONS ARAB STATES VOICED NUMEROUS OPINIONS. 
AFTER THE VOTES ARE IN, THEY ARE REMAINING NOTICEABLY QUIET. 
FROM CAIRO TO RIYADH AND DAMASCUS, ALL ARAB LEADERS DO NOT 
SHARE THE SAME OPINION BUT THEY ARE ALL SURPRISED BY THE LARGE 
TURNOUT, WHICH THEY HAD UNDERESTIMATED. THEY ARE NOT VERY 
TALKATIVE ABOUT TWO ISSUES WHICH ARE OF CONCERN TO THEM AND 
SEEM TO BE OBSESSING THEM: IRAQ'S NEW MULTI-PARTY POLITICS AND 
THE QUESTION OF REFORMS IN THE ARAB WORLD. CONCERNS ABOUT A 
`SHIITE CRESCENT' IN IRAQ AND THE SAUDI PENINSULA ARE 
EMERGING. UNABLE TO EXPRESS THEIR CONCERNS OPENLY, ARAB 
LEADERS ARE DOING IT THROUGH THEIR PRESS. SOME SEE THESE 
ELECTIONS AS A VICTORY THAT WILL LEAD IRAQ TO LOSE ITS 
`ARABNESS.' OTHERS HAVE ADDED THAT THE U.S. WILL USE THE 
ELECTIONS TO LEGITIMIZE ITS OCCUPATION OF IRAQ. MEANWHILE 
WESTERN EXPERTS ARE MORE TEMPERED. THEY ARE NOT CONVINCED THAT 
IRAQ'S SHIITES ARE COMPLETELY TIED TO TEHERAN." LEACH