US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI414

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000414 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ETRD, ECON, CH, TW, Cross Strait Economics, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: CHEN OFFERS MIXED MESSAGES ON CROSS-STRAIT AGENDA 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: President Chen Shui-bian delivered 
contradictory messages on his cross-Strait policy agenda 
during a January 31 meeting with AIT Board Director David 
Brown in Guam.  Chen characterized the recent charter flight 
agreement as a "new beginning" in cross-Strait relations and 
praised Beijing's decision to send Taiwan Affairs Office 
(TAO) Deputy Director Sun Yafu to the February 2 funeral of 
long-time Strait Exchange Foundation (SEF) Chairman C.F. Koo. 
 However, Chen delivered a tough message over Beijing's plans 
for an Anti-Secession Law, warning that Taiwan would react 
strongly if the PRC did not back down.  Chen also asserted 
that Beijing may use the proposed law to legally define its 
territorial boundaries, a move that could challenge the 
U.S.-Japan alliance.  In response, Brown welcomed President 
Chen's skillful handling of the charter flight issue, but 
cautioned that if Taiwan reacts too strongly over the 
Anti-Secession Law, it could risk being labeled as the source 
of future cross-Strait tensions.  In a subsequent meeting 
with Guam's Congressional Delegate, Madeleine Bordallo, 
President Chen reiterated his May 20, 2004 pledge not to 
change Taiwan's legal status during the process of 
"re-engineering" Taiwan's constitution.  He also promised 
that his 2000 "Five No's" pledge would remain in effect until 
the end of his term in office.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) During a brief transit through Guam on his return from 
Palau to Taipei on January 31, President Chen Shui-bian 
exchanged views on cross-Strait policy and U.S.-Taiwan 
relations with AIT Board Director David Brown.  Chen was 
joined by Foreign Minister Mark Chen, Government Information 
Office Director-General Lin Chia-lung, Overseas Chinese 
Affairs Commission Minister Chang Fu-mei, and Presidential 
Office Deputy Secretary General James Huang.  Brown was 
accompanied by AIT/T Acting Deputy Director and Deputy Pol 
Chief. 
 
Progress on Cross-Strait Ties 
----------------------------- 
 
3. (C) President Chen asserted that his overriding political 
priorities for the coming four year are to heal internal 
divisions within Taiwan and ease tensions across the Taiwan 
Strait.  Chen noted that the U.S. and Japan fought a bitter 
and costly battle over Guam in 1944, but 60 years later the 
two countries have formed the closest alliance in the world. 
"If the United States and Japan can do this," Chen continued, 
"so can Taiwan and Mainland China."  Chen characterized the 
recent agreement to open direct charter flights for the Lunar 
New Year as a "new beginning" in the cross-Strait 
relationship.  He added that with no major election scheduled 
in Taiwan for another two years, Beijing and Taipei have an 
opportunity to broaden consultations to cover a range of 
economic and technical issues.  Chen also praised the PRC's 
decision to send State Council TAO Deputy Director Sun Yafu 
to attend the February 2 funeral of long-time SEF Chairman 
C.F. Koo. 
 
But Dangers Ahead 
----------------- 
 
4. (C) Chen asserted, however, that the PRC's plans to enact 
an Anti-Secession Law threatened to undermine all of these 
positive developments.  Chen downplayed the significance of 
PRC People's Political Consultative Conference Chairman Jia 
Qinglin's January 28 speech marking the 10th anniversary of 
Jiang Zemin's "Eight Points" Taiwan policy.  "We should focus 
on what China has done over the past 10 years, not what they 
say," Chen stated.  "In 1996 they fired missiles at Taiwan, 
in 2000 their leaders tried to intimidate Taiwan's voters, 
and now they want to pass an Anti-Secession Law," he added. 
Chen warned that if Beijing passes this law in March, it will 
create a sharply negative reaction in Taiwan that could not 
be controlled by the government and push the island further 
away from the Mainland.  Chen commented that in 2003 500,000 
people came out in Hong Kong to protest proposed revisions to 
Article 23 of the Basic Law.  "If Beijing proceeds with the 
Anti-Secession Law," Chen added, "we can expect more than a 
million people to take to the streets."  Chen said that the 
government would also come under pressure to enact an 
"Anti-Annexation Law" or hold a referendum to protest PRC 
actions if Beijing refuses to back down on its plans.  "This 
is not something we would like to see happen," Chen remarked. 
5. (C) Brown praised Chen's skillful handling of the charter 
flight initiative, and welcomed his offer of a "new 
beginning" in cross-Strait relations.  Brown added that the 
PRC's plans for the Anti-Secession Law are also of great 
concern to the USG and American China specialist community. 
Nevertheless, Brown urged Taiwan to exercise restraint in its 
response to Beijing.  Should Taipei take the sorts of actions 
the president referred to, Brown continued, Taiwan may find 
itself blamed -- fairly or not -- for any resulting increase 
in tensions. 
 
6. (C) Chen responded that this was a public problem, not a 
government one.  "We are a democracy and the fact is the 
people cannot tolerate this law," Chen asserted, "the 
government cannot stop the Legislative Yuan from passing an 
Anti-Annexation Law and we cannot stop the people from 
demanding a referendum."  Chen continued that Beijing's 
proposed law was not only a threat to Taiwan, but also to the 
United States and Japan.  Chen asserted that Beijing is 
seeking to legally define Taiwan's relationship with the 
Mainland, an act that would violate President Bush's stated 
opposition to unilateral changes in the status quo.  "Beijing 
wants to be the referee in addition to being one of the 
players," he stated.  Chen added that Beijing may also use 
the law to define the PRC's territorial limits, a move that 
could bring it into direct conflict with Japan over disputed 
islands in the East China Sea. 
 
U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Room for Growth 
-------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Turning to U.S.-Taiwan relations, Chen offered 
congratulations to President Bush on his January 20 
inauguration.  He praised President Bush's call to expand 
democracy and freedom around the globe and promised that 
Taiwan would be America's best partner in this endeavor. 
Chen added that Taiwan would not take U.S. support for 
granted, and promised that Taiwan will do its share to 
provide for its own defense.  In this context, Chen expressed 
optimism that the three items contained in the Special 
Defense Procurement Budget (diesel submarines, P-3C aircraft, 
and PAC-III Patriot missile batteries) would be funded by the 
new Legislative Yuan (LY).  On the economic front, Chen 
welcomed the USG decision to restart Trade and Investment 
Framework Agreement (TIFA) talks and promised to accelerate 
consultations on telecommunications and other outstanding 
bilateral trade issues.  He also thanked the USG for moving 
Taiwan off the USTR's 301 priority watch list in recognition 
of Taipei's crackdown on IPR violations. 
 
Constitutional Reform to Remain Within Limits 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) During a subsequent meeting with Guam Congressional 
Delegate Madeleine Bordallo, Chen emphasized his commitment 
to the cross-Strait status quo.  Chen rejected PRC 
accusations that his timetable for constitutional reform 
amounted to a timetable for independence.  Chen reiterated 
his May 20, 2004 pledge that the process of constitutional 
"re-engineering" would not result in a change to Taiwan's 
name or territorial definition.  He added that his 2000 "Five 
No's" pledge would remain in effect throughout his term in 
office.  Chen said that any proposed constitutional change 
would be conducted under procedures outlined in the current 
constitution, which require approval by three-quarters of the 
LY.  Chen repeated these same assurances during a speech on 
the evening of January 31 to Guam community leaders (Septel). 
 
9. (U) David Brown and Rep. Bordallo did not have an 
opportunity to clear this message. 
PAAL