US embassy cable - 05PARIS565

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 000565 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
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E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQI ELECTIONS 
PARIS - MONDAY, JANUARY 31, 2005 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
IRAQI ELECTIONS 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
THE IRAQI ELECTIONS ARE OVERWHELMINGLY FEATURED IN TODAY'S 
EDITORIAL COMMENTARIES AND ON MOST FRONT PAGES. STORIES 
FOCUSED ON THE FESTIVE ATMOSPHERE SURROUNDING THE VOTE AND 
SOUNDED CAUTIONARY NOTES ABOUT THE NEXT STEPS IN IRAQ'S 
DEMOCRATIC PROCESS. 
HERE BELOW A SAMPLE OF TODAY'S HEADLINES: 
"IRAQ: A LESSON IN DEMOCRACY" (RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO) 
"IRAQ SUCCEEDS IN ITS FIRST ELECTORAL TEST" (RIGHT-OF-CENTER 
LES ECHOS) 
"IRAQI VOTERS BRAVE VIOLENCE" (CATHOLIC LA CROIX) 
"IRAQ HAS VOTED" (LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION) 
"VOTERS AND CASUALTIES" (POPULAR RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE PARISIEN) 
"IRAQ: THE DANGERS OF AN ISLAMIC SHIITE VICTORY" (POPULAR 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER FRANCE SOIR) 
 
WHILE MOST COMMENTATORS AGREE THAT A HISTORIC VOTE HAS TAKEN 
PLACE IN IRAQ, A VARIETY OF ASSESSMENTS ARE PERCEIVABLE, FROM 
THE DANGERS OF A SHIITE THEOCRACY AND A QUICK EXIT BY THE 
COALITION TO THE CONCERNS OF REGIONAL ARAB REGIMES. (SEE PART 
C) 
 
THE SPOKESMAN FOR THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT, JEAN-FRANCOIS COPE, 
WHO SPOKE ON EUROPE ONE RADIO LAST EVENING, IS QUOTED IN 
LIBERATION: "THIS IS A SUCCESS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY, WHICH COMPLETELY SUPPORTED AND ASSISTED THE 
PROCESS, ALONG OF COURSE WITH THE U.S." 
 
ANTOINE BASBOUS, DIRECTOR OF THE OBSERVATORY FOR ARAB 
COUNTRIES, IS INTERVIEWED IN POPULAR RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE 
PARISIEN (01/31): "THIS IS KILOMETER ONE OF A THOUSAND- 
KILOMETER LONG ROAD. THE VOTE WAS LIKE A DELIVERY WITH ACUTE 
LABOR PAINS. THE ELECTION WAS A NECESSARY ONE, BUT IT IS NOT 
ENOUGH, BECAUSE DEMOCRACY IS NOT SOMETHING THAT CAN BE DECREED 
IN A COUNTRY WHICH HAS KNOWN ONLY DICTATORSHIP. PATIENCE AND 
TIME ARE NECESSARY. TOMORROW, WHEN THE CIRCULATION BAN IS 
LIFTED, ATTACKS WILL START AGAIN. VIOLENCE IS FAR FROM OVER IN 
IRAQ." 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
IRAQI ELECTIONS 
 
 "BUSH, VICTORIOUS" 
CHARLES LAMBROSCHINI IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (01/31): 
"GEORGE W. BUSH IS CLAIMING FIRST VICTORY. BUT THE OUTCOME OF 
THESE ELECTIONS COULD WELL TURN OUT TO BE AMBIGUOUS, SOMEWHAT 
LIKE THE PROVERBIAL GLASS, EITHER HALF EMPTY OR HALF FULL. 
EVEN SEEN AS HALF FULL, IT STILL DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE 
AMERICANS HAVE MANAGED TO WIN THE HEARTS AND MINDS. FAR FROM 
HAVING BEEN HAILED AS LIBERATORS, THE GIS ARE UNANIMOUSLY 
PROCLAIMED AS A FORCE OF OCCUPATION. IT IS THEIR PRESENCE THAT 
FEEDS THE CYCLE OF VIOLENCE. IGNORANT ABOUT THE WORLD AND 
BLINDED BY THEIR VISION, THE AMERICANS OFTEN REACH THE RIGHT 
SOLUTION ONLY AFTER HAVING RUN OUT OF BAD ONES. AFTER THE 
INCREDIBLE ERROR OF HAVING DISBANDED IRAQ'S SECURITY FORCES, 
WASHINGTON DID CORRECT ITS MISTAKE. BUSH'S STUBBORNNESS, WHICH 
LED TO THE IRAQI QUAGMIRE, HAS AT LEAST HAD A POSITIVE 
OUTCOME: BUSH DID NOT LISTEN TO THOSE WHO SUGGESTED POSTPONING 
THE ELECTION. BUT THESE ELECTIONS ARE BUT THE BEGINNING OF A 
LONG ROAD. IF THE SHIITES GIVE IN TO THE TEMPTATION OF 
THEOCRACY, THE SUNNIS TO THE FASCINATION OF SUICIDE AND THE 
KURDS TO THE OBSESSION OF INDEPENDENCE, ALL WILL BE LOST. THIS 
IS WHY FRANCE, AND ALL THE ALLIES MUST HELP AMERICA TO GET OUT 
OF THE IRAQI QUAGMIRE." 
"LESSONS FROM THE IRAQIS" 
DOMINIQUE GERBAUD IN CATHOLIC LA CROIX (01/31): "FINALLY, GOOD 
NEWS. THIS LESSON IN DEMOCRACY AND THIS DESIRE TO RESIST 
AGAINST THE PRESSURES AND THREATS OF THE TERRORISTS GIVE AT 
LEAST TWO IDEAS ABOUT THE IRAQIS' STATE OF MIND. FIRST, THAT 
THE PEOPLE OF IRAQ ARE MORE PEACEFUL THAN THE IMAGES WE HAVE 
BEEN GETTING FROM IRAQ. THE OTHER LESSON IS ONE SENT TO THE 
AMERICANS: BY VOTING, THE IRAQIS ARE SAYING THAT THEY WILL NOT 
ALLOW A FOREIGN POWER TO MANAGE THEIR COUNTRY FOR THE 
DURATION. THE AMERICANS, WHO CAN FEEL RELIEVED FOR NOT HAVING 
CAVED IN, WANTED A DEMOCRATIC, STABLE AND FRIENDLY IRAQI 
GOVERNMENT. THEY MAY GET DEMOCRATIC AND STABLE, AS FOR 
FRIENDLY, THAT'S A TOTALLY DIFFERENT STORY." 
 
"LEGITIMACY" 
PATRICK SABATIER IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (01/31): "THE 
FIRST ELECTIONS IN IRAQ MAY NOT HAVE BEEN ALL THAT `FREE AND 
LEGAL,' BUT THEY HAVE NEVERTHELESS BEEN A GREAT VICTORY FOR 
THE IRAQIS - `KAMIKAZES OF DEMOCRACY' OPPOSING `KAMIKAZES OF 
TERROR.' THE FINAL RESULTS WILL CONFER ON THE NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY MORE LEGITIMACY THAN SADDAM HUSSEIN EVER HAD OR THAN 
THE INTERIM GOVERNMENT. BUT ONLY ON THE CONDITION THAT IT NOT 
AIM TO IMPLEMENT A SHIITE MONOPOLY OR A THEOCRACY. AND THAT IT 
NEGOTIATE WITH THE SUNNI MINORITY. IT MUST ALSO BE THE PREMISE 
FOR A RAPID WITHDRAWAL OF THE OCCUPATION FORCES WHICH ARE 
GUARANTEEING ITS PROTECTION. INCREASINGLY, THESE FORCES ARE 
BECOMING PART OF THE PROBLEM RATHER THAN PART OF THE 
SOLUTION." 
 
"A VOTE WHICH PLEASES AMERICANS AND IRANIANS" 
JEAN-CLAUDE KIEFER IN REGIONAL LES DERNIERES NOUVELLES 
D'ALSACE (01/31): "THE SUNNI COMMUNITY. LARGELY BOYCOTTED THE 
BALLOT BOX. ITS FATE SEEMS TO BE OF LITTLE INTEREST TO 
WASHINGTON. IN ORDER TO TIGHTEN TRANSATLANTIC TIES, SOME 
CAPITALS HAVE TOADIED (TO WASHINGTON) BY PROCLAIMING (THE 
VOTE) A `VICTORY FOR DEMOCRACY'. THE AMERICANS. THEREBY GAIN 
THE LEGITIMACY THEY WERE UNABLE TO OBTAIN. IN 2003. WHAT WILL 
CHANGE IN THE DAILY LIVES OF THE IRAQI POPULATION AFTER THESE 
ELECTIONS?  NO DOUBT NOTHING." 
 
"HISTORY AND SMOKESCREENS" 
JEAN-CLAUDE MAURICE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE JOURNAL DU DIMANCHE 
(01/30 - BEFORE THE ELECTION): "THESE ELECTIONS ARE NATIONAL 
ELECTIONS IN NAME ONLY. EVERYONE HAS BEEN SAYING HOW 
`DIFFICULT' THE VOTING CONDITIONS ARE AND GEORGE BUSH HAS BEEN 
SAYING HOW `COURAGEOUS' THE IRAQIS ARE. TWO MAJOR 
UNDERSTATEMENTS. BY HOLDING TO THE SCHEDULE, PRESIDENT BUSH IS 
IN A WAY JUSTIFYING HIS WAR. MIRED IN IRAQ, THE BUSH 
ADMINISTRATION IS LOOKING FOR AN OUT. NOW ALL IS SET FOR THE 
ALIBI OF AN EXIT STRATEGY WITHOUT LOSING FACE, A JOB 
UNFINISHED AND A COUNTRY IN RUINS. BEYOND THE SYMBOL OF A 
NEWFOUND FREEDOM, THESE ELECTIONS RESOLVE NOTHING. WE MUST 
HOPE THAT THE NEW GOVERNMENT WILL NOT LEAD TO AN IRAN-LIKE 
THEOCRACY. NEVER HAVE ELECTIONS TAKEN PLACE AMIDST SUCH 
CONFUSION, AND THEIR OUTCOME BEEN SO OPAQUE. AS FOR TERRORISM, 
IT WILL NOT WANE AFTER THESE ELECTIONS, A SMOKESCREEN FOR 
AMERICA'S GOOD CONSCIENCE. WASHINGTON AND LONDON, BEFORE THE 
RESULTS ARE EVEN IN, HAVE DECIDED ON AN EXIT STRATEGY, WITH 
THE RISK OF LETTING IRAQ PLUNGE INTO A BLOODY CIVIL WAR, A 
PRELUDE TO PARTITION. BUT ON THIS `HISTORIC' DAY WE MUST NOT 
SPEAK OF ANYTHING BAD. THE ONLY CERTAINTY IS THAT IT OFFERS 
THE COALITION FORCES A RETURN TICKET HOME. AS FOR THE BILL, 
GIVE IT TO THE UN, WHICH AS EVERYONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO SEE, IS 
BACK IN WASHINGTON'S GOOD GRACES." 
 
"A SHIITE CRESCENT IN THE CENTER OF THE MIDDLE EAST?" 
THOMAS DE ROCHECHOUART IN POPULAR RIGHT-OF-CENTER FRANCE SOIR 
(01/31): "NEXT TO THE IRANIANS, AND WHEN IT COMES TO THE 
DOMINO EFFECT, THE AMERICANS MAY BE ONLY AMATEURS. WITH THE 
INNOCENCE OF A SORCERER'S APPRENTICE, WASHINGTON HAS RE- 
DISTRIBUTED THE DECK OF CARDS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AND BY SO 
DOING IT HAS RE-ENFORCED ITS TWO MAJOR ENEMIES: SYRIA AND 
IRAN!.. IRAN WILL BE THE GREAT WINNER OF THIS NEW CARD GAME. 
WHICH IS ALREADY WORRYING THE REST OF THE SUNNI REGIMES IN THE 
REGION. JORDAN IS ACCUSING TEHRAN OF CREATING A SORT OF 
`SHIITE CRESCENT' IN THE MIDDLE EAST. AFTER SOUTHERN IRAQ, THE 
MOVEMENT COULD SPREAD TO BAHREIN, SAUDI ARABIA, AND EVEN 
LEBANON. A SORT OF SHIITE DOMINO EFFECT." LEACH