US embassy cable - 05HARARE162

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000162 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AID FOR DCHA/FFP LANDIS, CRUMBLY, MUTAMBA, 
PETERSEN 
DCHA/OFDA FOR PRATT, AUSTRENG, KHANDAGLE, 
MENGH ETTI, BORNS, MARX, HALMRAST-SANCHEZ 
AFR/SA FOR FLEURET, LOKEN, COPSON, 
MACNAIRN 
EGAT FOR HOBGOOD, THOMPSON 
STATE/AF FOR RAYNOR, NEULING 
GABORONE FOR CASHION, BROWN 
LILONGWE FOR RUBEY 
LUSAKA FOR GUNTHER, NIELSON 
MAPUTO FOR POLAND, BLISS, THOMPSON 
MASERU FOR AMB LOFTIS 
MBABANE FOR KENNA 
NAIROBI FOR SMITH, BROWN 
PRETORIA FOR, DISKIN, HALE, SINK, REYNOLDS 
ROME FOR FODAG FOR GAST 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, PREL, US, ZI, Food Assistance 
SUBJECT:  FOOD INSECURITY INCREASING SLOWLY IN 
ZIMBABWE, BUT NO CRISIS YET. 
 
 
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Summary 
------- 
 
1.   Although there is evidence of growing food 
insecurity, particularly in rural areas where low 
food production is a chronic problem, the situation 
has not yet reached the level of a crisis.  It 
appears that most households are still managing to 
ward off hunger by employing a variety of coping 
mechanisms.  However, there is a potential for a food 
crisis if supplies to low-production areas do not 
improve.  The US and other international donors plan 
to continue monitoring the situation and providing on- 
going targeted food assistance to the extent 
possible.   If the situation deteriorates 
significantly, we will begin negotiating with the GOZ 
for approval to increase humanitarian assistance, as 
appropriate.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------- 
Assessing Food Insecurity 
------------------------- 
 
3.   In June 2004, the GOZ suspended large-scale food 
distribution in Zimbabwe.  It has since refused to 
acknowledge the potential for food shortages.  The 
international press has periodically reported on 
problems of food access in Zimbabwe.  Those reports 
have often accused the GOZ of using food to advance 
the ruling party's political agenda.  Because the GOZ 
refuses to share information about national food 
stocks or distribution plans, and has impeded the 
international community's efforts to assess the 
situation, these press reports have had to be based 
on anecdotal reports. 
 
4.   Despite the lack of government cooperation, 
international agencies and local NGOs that provided 
food assistance in Zimbabwe during the past two years 
have continued to gather information about food 
security.  The World Food Programme (WFP), the USAID- 
supported Zimbabwe Famine Early Warning System 
(FEWSNET), the Consortium for Southern Africa Food 
Security Emergency (C-SAFE), USAID Zimbabwe/FFP, and 
FOSENET (a consortium of local NGOs) have, to varying 
degrees, independently monitored food availability, 
prices, and production.  USAID initiated a monthly 
meeting to pool each agencies' limited information 
and create a broader picture of food insecurity in 
the country.  The information below comes from the 
shared findings of these agencies. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Rural Areas: Food Available but Supplies Limited 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
5.   Food stocks from households' production have 
diminished substantially since the last harvest of 
cereals in March 2004.  In fact, the months December 
- March are typically referred to as Zimbabwe's 
"hungry season."  Surprisingly, however, the 
availability of maize (corn) for sale improved 
slightly during the past two months.  WFP monitoring 
indicated that maize was at least "occasionally 
available" throughout most of the country in 
November.  Reports of "no availability" came only 
from parts of Matebeleland (Gwanda and 
Bulililimangwe) and one district in Masvingo (Zaka). 
 
6.   Improved availability of maize for sale seems at 
least partly to be due to the increased release of 
maize stocks by the GOZ's Grain Marketing Board (GMB) 
between August and November 2004.  However, by 
November more communities were still obtaining their 
food requirements from open (not state controlled) 
markets than from the GMB.  Field visits indicate 
that this is because GMB deliveries are erratic, and 
the quantities delivered often do not meet the 
demand. 
 
7.   December monitoring in farming households in 
Matabeleland South, an area of chronic deficit 
production, indicated that most households held less 
than 50 kg of cereal in stock, and many had less than 
10 kg.  These quantities suggest that they were 
eating hand-to-mouth, acquiring relatively small 
quantities as they needed it. 
 
8.   Typical of the season, the importance of wild 
foods in diets is increasing.  Wild green leaves have 
been substituting for vegetables that are 
traditionally grown in household gardens, because 
vegetables do not grow well during the current rainy 
season.  Wild fruits provide nutritious snacks, and 
can even replace bread or porridge for breakfast.  In 
some areas, households have begun to gather and dry 
high-protein mopani worms.  The dried worms increase 
the quality of household nutrition, and their sale 
also provides household income. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Urban Areas: Food Available but Some Shortages 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
9.   Maize meal has been readily available in urban 
markets until just the past few weeks, when the 
popular and most affordable coarse grade suddenly 
became scarce.  The more refined grade continues to 
be readily available, but at a price that is 
prohibitive for most households.  The reason for the 
shortage of affordable meal is not yet clear.  Some 
speculate that the GMB has run out of maize stocks 
because it cannot import fast enough.  Others believe 
that the millers are trying to make more money by 
withholding some stocks.  It is possible that the 
shortage reflects a temporary interruption in the 
flow of imports and milling due to the holidays. 
 
10.  Prices of maize meal, in urban markets, have 
only slightly increased during the past months 
(mostly because these prices are controlled), but 
prices for other food commodities have increased more 
significantly.  The cost of living for a typical 
household in urban areas has steadily increased over 
2004, as reported in recent publications from FEWSNET 
-- particularly when measured against the GOZ's 
minimum wage.  The current minimum wage would cover 
only 31% of a month's minimum expenditures for basic 
needs. 
 
11.  Fortunately, data from other sources show that 
the picture is not as bleak as it first appears.  C- 
SAFE, through the USAID-funded Market Assistance 
Program (MAP), which sells subsidized sorghum in low- 
income neighborhoods of selected cities, regularly 
monitors household incomes in the high-density areas 
of Bulawayo.  In August 2004, C-SAFE conducted 
surveys in similar neighborhoods in other urban 
centers.  Their data show that household incomes in 
high-density areas, derived largely from informal 
employment, are much higher than minimum wage: 2 to 3 
times higher in Bulawayo.  The average household 
earnings in the surveyed areas do not reach the 
estimated minimum monthly expenditure for basic 
needs, but they are higher and much closer to the 
required minimum expenditure than is the minimum 
wage. 
 
12.  During recent months, MAP sales have been 
consistently lower than they were the same time last 
year - probably because until recently maize meal was 
readily available.  However, household monitoring 
shows that most households, even those buying MAP 
sorghum, are still eating the more expensive maize 
meal (which costs about US$1.00 per 5 kg compared to 
about US$0.56 per 5 kg of sorghum).  We believe that 
households are foregoing other expenses, e.g., they 
walk instead of paying for transportation, so that 
they can continue to afford some amount of their 
preferred maize meal.  In coming months C-SAFE will 
try to confirm this interpretation through their 
monitoring activities as well as to monitor whether 
the shortage of the more popular, more affordable 
coarse grain maize persists. 
 
--------------------- 
Assistance Activities 
--------------------- 
 
13.  In December, WFP's partners distributed a large 
ration of cereal (12.5 kg) and beans (5 kg) to the 
poorest households in the 31 districts identified as 
the most food insecure in the Vulnerability 
Assessment conducted after last year's harvest by the 
Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC) in 
cooperation with WFP.  This distribution depleted 
nearly all of WFP's in-country cereal stocks left 
from last year's appeal, which were at risk of 
spoilage.  Negotiations with the GOZ to distribute C- 
SAFE cereals and WFP beans in three more districts of 
concern are on-going. 
 
14.  In January, with the opening of a new school 
term, the emergency school feeding program expanded 
into more of the food insecure rural areas.  This 
expansion will assure that more than one million 
school children receive a meal of fortified porridge, 
made from corn soy blend and oil, each school day. 
The program encourages all children aged 3-14, even 
those who are not enrolled in school, to come to eat 
porridge. 
 
---------------------- 
Politicization of Food 
---------------------- 
 
15.  Although allegations of politicized food 
distribution by the GOZ have declined in the past 
year, the last few months have seen several credible 
reports in this regard.  The local media has carried 
a number of prominent reports that the GMB is 
restricting access to food based on party 
affiliation.  There are also reports of direct 
distribution of free food by candidates in the ZANU- 
PF primaries for the upcoming parliamentary 
elections. 
 
16.  We have not heard any reports of political 
interference with the one-off distribution of WFP 
stocks that took place in December.  In January 
however, World Vision encountered problems with 
political groups trying to use seed distribution 
gatherings as opportunities to campaign.  To address 
this problem, World Vision decided, in conjunction 
with provincial and district authorities of 
Matebeleland South: to distribute mostly from 
schools, to avoid weekend distributions, to always 
inform the police in advance of distributions, and to 
assure that there is a representative of the District 
Social Welfare Department present at each 
distribution. 
 
17.  As the parliamentary elections approach, NGOs 
expect that their access to the rural populations 
will become more restricted -- either by mandate or 
for security reasons.  This week, our local Food 
Monitor was advised by a district government official 
not to go into an area where he had hoped to travel 
for the purpose of assessing the current food 
security situation because of political tension in 
the area. 
 
------------------ 
Is There a Crisis? 
------------------ 
 
18.  The NGOs working in Zimbabwe have not reported 
any evidence to support press reports of deaths due 
to food shortages.  However, there is concern that 
mortality has increased in the HIV/AIDS-infected 
population because of the more rapid progression of 
the infection when diets are inadequate. 
 
19.  NGO-conducted surveys indicate that most 
households, even in food insecure areas, were still 
managing over the past two months to feed their 
families, albeit with some difficulty.  In districts 
of poor production where low household stocks were 
reported in December, a survey of school children 
showed that in November the large majority of 
children said they had eaten at least three meals the 
previous day (including their school meal).  A 
slightly smaller majority also said they had not felt 
hungry during the previous week.  The bottom line: 
while hunger is increasing and the high HIV 
prevalence rate (24.6%) will likely increase 
mortality, we have not yet reached a point where 
starvation is looming.  Post will continue to monitor 
the situation closely and report periodically. 
 
DELL