US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI756

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000756 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, IN, IZ, India-Iraq 
SUBJECT: INDIA ON IRAQI ELECTIONS: CONGRATULATE AND 
REEVALUATE 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake, Jr., for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Despite the GOI's deliberately low-profile 
public and material support in the run-up to the Iraqi 
elections, Indian government, media, and commentators 
welcomed the completion of Iraq's first election.  In a 
January 31 statement, the Indian MEA called the elections a 
"noteworthy development" and reaffirmed Iraq's strategic 
importance to New Delhi (full text in para 10).  Circumspect 
about engaging the interim regime, the GOI will likely engage 
the new Iraqi government with more conviction, although 
practical security concerns and continued opposition from 
India's left parties will present major obstacles to a more 
visible Indian presence in the near future.  End Summary. 
 
Pre-Election Hesitation 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (C) As noted in previous reporting, the GOI has expressed 
a desire to be more active in Iraqi elections, but security 
concerns in Iraq and opposition by the left at home 
effectively prevented more direct Indian involvement besides 
funding for the electoral cluster of the UN Trust Fund. 
 
3.  (C) Despite post's urging the GOI to come forward with a 
public statement in support of the elections, GOI leaders 
were largely silent in the weeks and days before the polls. 
In the inaugural address of the Center for West Asian Studies 
at Jamia University the day before the elections, PM Manmohan 
Singh briefly remarked on the long process ahead for Iraq. 
Singling out sanctions and insecurity over Saddam as causes 
of Iraqis' suffering, the PM bowed to his left wing with the 
comment that, "We cannot but recall the extent of the 
suffering of the Iraqi people over the past decades, in 
particular following the imposition of sanctions, and under 
the present disturbed situation."  Despite this, he concluded 
that, "India is committed to the prosperity and well-being of 
the people of Iraq (and) we will do all we can, as Iraq 
stabilizes, to help with the return of normalcy and in the 
task of reconstruction that lies ahead." 
 
But Shias Enthusiastic 
---------------------- 
 
4.  (C) India's Shia community, on the other hand, was 
enthusiastic about the quick conclusion of Iraqi elections. 
Two days before the polls, the newly launched "All India Shia 
Personal Law Board" in the Shia stronghold of Lucknow 
expressed its fervent hope for successful elections in Iraq 
in the first resolution passed by the body.  The resolution 
expressed concern about the recent calls for violence issued 
by "the henchmen of Saddam Hussein" to disrupt elections, 
appealed to all Iraqi Shia to participate in the polls, and 
voiced full support for Ayatollah Sistani.  This message was 
echoed in Friday sermons and in leaflets distributed 
throughout the Shia localities of Lucknow.  Noting the US 
role in helping Iraq reach this historic moment, two Shia 
leaders, newspaper editor Zaheer Mustafa and High Court 
advocate Ibne Hasan, however, also cautioned the US not to 
make statements against Iran at this delicate juncture:  "The 
enemies of peace and democracy in Iraq...will cash in on any 
anti-Iran statement by the US government," Hasan warned. 
 
Post-Election Reactions:  Ballots Defeat Bullets 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
5.  (U) Civic elections in Jammu and Kashmir generally got 
top billing over the Iraqi elections in the Sunday press, but 
most media on Monday heralded the triumph of ballots over 
bullets in Iraq, illustrated by Iraqis brandishing peace 
signs with inked index fingers.  "The Asian Age" which had 
run skeptical articles in the run-up to the elections, 
carried an upbeat headline, "Party Spirit as Iraq Votes," 
with a subtitle, "After we win, no to America."  One 
exception to the congratulatory headlines was "The Hindu" 
which featured the day's death toll of 36 over the reported 
76 percent voter turnout. 
 
6.  (C) As expected, reactions to Iraq's elections among 
India's considerable Muslim population was divided along 
sectarian lines.  India's Shia population lauded the overall 
conduct of the elections.  Syed Hamidul Hasan, principal of 
India's most prestigious Shia madrassa and one of the 
country's leading Shias, told PolOff by phone that he had 
just returned from meeting Shia congregations in Gujarat who 
were unanimously pleased with the polls.  In the weeks 
leading up to the polls, Hasan said he and other Shia leaders 
in Lucknow instructed their congregations to contact friends 
and relatives in Iraq and urge them to participate in the 
elections.  Moulvi Iftiqar Ansari, State Representative from 
Srinigar gushed to PolOff, "Tremendous elections.  We must 
appreciate President Bush, though the Muslim world does not 
like him.  (This is) a great step.  Iraqis can now form their 
own legitimate government."  In contrast, Muhammad Jafar, 
Secretary General of Jamaat-Islami Hind, a hard-line Sunni 
 
SIPDIS 
organization, dismissed Iraq's elections as "eye wash," 
saying, "(the polls) can't be called elections in the real 
sense." 
 
Reevaluating Indian Involvement in Iraq 
--------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Despite not playing an active role in the January 30 
polls, MEA Joint Secretary, Gulf Division R. Dayakar 
reiterated GOI commitment to Iraq's democratic transition and 
indicated that the GOI would reevaluate the level of its 
involvement in a meeting with PolCouns and Pol-MilOff on 
January 31.  He confirmed that India will participate in the 
April donors conference and hopes to be more active in 
subsequent elections later this year.  In addition to ongoing 
vocational training and educational programs in India, the 
GOI will also announce a new program to produce high energy 
biscuits for the World Food Program for distribution in Iraq, 
as it has done in Afghanistan.  Describing these initiatives 
as "the maximum we can do," he also repeated his complaint 
that Baghdad's slow response to GOI offers erodes Indian 
willingness to offer more. 
 
8.  (C) PolCouns asked about an earlier Indian proposal to 
train police as a way to enhance Iraqi security and expedite 
the departure of foreign troops.  Dayakar replied that the 
elections constituted a fundamental turning point, adding 
that security force training, like other earlier proposals 
such as the dispatch of a military hospital to Najaf and 
training for the Iraqi army would now have to be reevaluated. 
 Sending Indian troops to Iraq, however, will not be 
considered. 
 
9.  (C) PolCouns inquired whether the GOI would now consider 
lifting the travel advisory preventing Indians from traveling 
to Iraq, even for specific projects in safe areas of Iraqi 
Kurdistan.  Dayakar said MEA had decided to take "no 
decision" on this issue for now.  As long as there are 
kidnappings -- he cited the recent case of Chinese workers 
who had been kidnapped and released -- there would be 
resistance to changing the GOI travel ban. 
 
10.  (U) Begin text of MEA statement: 
 
The Government of India has been carefully monitoring recent 
political developments in Iraq.  It has been our view that 
the restoration of full sovereignty to the Iraqi people is a 
necessary pre-condition for peace and stability in that 
country.  In that context, the holding of elections in Iraq 
on January 30, 2005, is a noteworthy development. 
Preliminary reports about the turnout of voters are 
encouraging.  We hope that these events would set in motion a 
process that would lead the Iraqi people taking full control 
of their destiny. 
As is well known, India has traditionally strong ties of 
friendship with Iraq and its people.  We would, therefore, 
welcome the return of political stability and economic 
prosperity to the country, situated in an area of 
considerable strategic importance to India, in terms of the 
large population of Indian citizens who live and work in the 
Gulf, as also a significant source of our energy supplies. 
We wish the people of Iraq success in their efforts towards 
nation-building and stand ready to contribute to the 
country's reconstruction in an environment free from 
violence.  End text. 
 
11.  (U) Minimize considered. 
MULFORD