US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI749

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000749 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PHUM, IN, PK, Kashmir 
SUBJECT: HIGH TURNOUT IN FIRST ROUND OF J&K LOCAL ELECTIONS 
 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake, Jr. Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Consolidating the pattern set in other recent 
state elections, Kashmiris turned out in large numbers in 
municipal elections in North Kashmir on January 30, defying 
terrorist intimidation and a separatist-led boycott campaign, 
and demonstrating that they want to have a greater say in how 
they are governed at the grassroots level.  In recognition of 
these sentiments, All-Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) 
leaders toned down their opposition slightly in recent days, 
with even the most hardline opponent SAS Geelani saying 
"Civic elections are OK.  It's not a vote for India.  They 
voted for their civic problems."  Held after an interval of 
27 years, these polls will elect Mayors and City Councils 
across the state, and continue on a rolling basis until 
February 17.  Extrapolating from the first round, these polls 
reflect Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's attempts to 
erode Kashmiris' alienation from India by further 
democratizing the lower levels of state politics.  The next 
major contests are in Srinagar on February 1, and South 
Kashmir on February 6, 12, and 17.  Suggested press guidance 
in para 10.  End Summary. 
 
Strong First Round Showing 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Preliminary results from the first round of municipal 
elections held in North Kashmir on January 30 show strong 
support for the government's continuing efforts to normalize 
the political process there.  The most important barometer of 
success in Kashmir elections -- turnout -- indicated higher 
participation across the board, including in strongholds of 
separatist sentiment like Sopore and Baramulla.  State 
election officials reported that percentage turnout figures 
were as follows, which we contrast to the most recent 2002 
Assembly elections: 
 
Town        2005         2002 
Baramulla    38           24 
Uri          78           66 
Sopore       25            8 
Bandipora    60           31 
Kupawara     83           55 
Handwara     89           51 
 
3.  (U) The ruling PDP-Congress coalition appears to have 
done well, sweeping a majority in seven of nine towns in 
Baramulla and Kupwara districts.  The opposition National 
Conference (NC) reportedly did well in several smaller towns. 
 The surprise was the strong performance of the Awami League, 
founded by Kukka Parray, a former militant who was 
assassinated in 2003 after crossing over to the government 
side, and the success of numerous independent candidates. 
Finance Minister Muzaffar Beig called the turnout an 
"eyeopener for the Hurriyat," observing sharply that 
"boycotting elections does not contribute to peace and 
development." 
 
Strong Anti-Poll Campaign 
------------------------- 
 
4.  (U) These elections follow a vigorous boycott campaign 
for which all major separatist groups weighed in.  Both 
moderate and hardline factions of the Hurriyat have been 
outspoken in their opposition.  The pro-independence JKLF 
leader Yasin Malik and a JKLF spin-off group led by his 
former ally Javed Mir have been particularly active. 
Moderate Hurriyat leader Abbas Ansari dismissed reports of 
high turnouts, commenting that "lines in front of polling 
booths do not matter," and that "Mufti is good at renting 
crowds."  Moderate APHC leaders Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and Prof 
AG Bhat denied suggestions that the Hurriyat was under 
pressure from rank-and-file members to join the elections or 
to back proxy candidates.  Malik called turnout reports 
"bogus," arguing that harsh winter weather would keep people 
away from polling stations and charging the government with 
inflating the numbers for political reasons. 
5.  (C) After several weeks of agitation, however, separatist 
opposition may be weakening.  The Mirwaiz ignored the issue 
at Friday prayers in Srinagar on January 28 and did not call 
for a boycott.  Even the most irroconcilable opponent, 
pro-Pakistan hardliner SAS Geelani, who earlier trashed the 
polls as "eyewash" and  "a sham," told the press on January 
30 that "Civic elections are OK.  It's not a vote for India. 
They voted for their civic problems." 
 
Targetted Violence Sparks Candidates Withdrawals 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
6.  (U) Since nomination papers were filed, terrorists have 
attacked candidates from all major political parties, killing 
at least three.  The worst attack of the campaign came on 
January 27, when militants attacked an election office 
outside Srinagar, wounding 26 people.  PDP President Mehbooba 
Mufti escaped unhurt from an attack on her motorcade on 
January 24.  The militant group al-Mansourian has been 
particularly active, spreading leaflets in many towns and 
villages in an attempt to scare voters and candidates from 
participating; at least 152 of the latter have withdrawn from 
the process already, and dozens more followed on January 31, 
taking out advertisements in local papers announcing their 
withdrawal to avoid reprisals from the insurgents.  Some 
politicians complained of a lack of security, but the police 
responded that they could not provide security to the several 
thousand candidates statewide. 
 
Election Details 
---------------- 
 
7.  (U) These polls are to elect Mayors and 3 City Councils 
and 30 Committees (the latter in smaller towns) across J&K, 
positions that have been held by appointed officials since 
the last such exercise in 1977.  Voters will first elect ward 
members, according to the schedule below, who will elect 
mayors after the councils have been constituted.  No polling 
will take place in the Kargil or Leh regions of the state 
because of severe winter weather.  One-third of the 
candidates are women, and an unprecedented number of young 
people and independents have entered the fray, according to 
journalists in Srinagar.  "Chattan" editor Tahir Mohiuddin 
told us that Mufti chose this time to hold polls bolster his 
standing vis-a-vis the NC, to fulfill another campaign 
promise in his Common Minimum Program, and to bolster PDP 
ranks before it transfers the Chief Ministership to the 
Congress party in November. 
 
8.  (U) Polling will proceed as follows: 
Baramulla and Kupwara Municipal Council - January 29 
Srinagar Municipal Corporation - February 1 
Jammu Municipal Corporation - February 1 
Anantnag, Pulwama Municipal Council/Committee - February 6 
Jammu, Kathua Municipal Council/Committee - February 7 
Srinagar, Badgam Municipal Council/Committee - February 10 
Doda, Udhampur Municipal Council/Committee - February 12 
Rajouri, Poonch Municipal Council/Committee - February 17 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C) The first round is further evidence that Kashmiris 
clearly want to influence, if they cannot determine, their 
own affairs.  As during the 2002 J&K Assembly elections, this 
heightened interest in grassroots democracy reflects 
Kashmiris' desire to improve their daily lives, if they 
cannot settle the larger Kashmir issue now.  As one 
commentator put it, this is about "azadi ("freedom," a 
separatist rallying cry) from garbage, choked drains, 
potholed roads."  The large number of women and young 
candidates demonstrates that ordinary Kashmiris will engage 
politically around issues that concern them directly.  The 
turnout figures also reveal continuing popular resistance to 
terrorist intimidation and represent a rebuff to separatists 
who urged a boycott.  The Hurriyat's rejectionist position, 
on the grounds that these polls "will not resolve the Kashmir 
problem" is disappointing, as they have missed yet another 
opportunity to shape their political environment, let alone 
to climb the road to power.  The challenge remains for the 
state government, and the GOI, to translate Kashmiri interest 
in improving daily life into enthusiasm for larger India 
issues. 
 
10.  (C) Given the relatively lower stakes, we did not 
observe these polls (as we did in 2002 and 2004), and cannot 
comment on the credibility of the electoral process.  Charges 
of irregularities from the NC bear watching, although NC 
President Omar Abdullah has taken the polls rather lightly, 
spending the weekend in New Delhi rather than campaigning 
prior to February 1 Srinagar polling.  The government's 
decision not to use electronic voting machines is a potential 
weakness in electoral procedures.  Kashmiri Pandits have also 
complained that 60,000 refugees were left off from voter 
lists in Jammu, but we understand that they have accepted an 
as yet vague solution brokered by Mufti that would give 
Pandits positions in these town bodies once the poll results 
are known. 
 
Suggested Press Guidance 
------------------------- 
 
11.  (U) We recommend the following guidance: 
 
We welcome the Indian government's decision to hold Municipal 
Corporation and Municipal Council/Committee elections in J&K 
after a hiatus of 27 years.  These polls continue the 
positive trends that began with the 2002 state Legislative 
Assembly elections.  We note in particular the large number 
of women and young candidates. 
 
We have seen initial reports from the first round from 
January 30 polling in North Kashmir.  These reports indicate 
strong voter participation in areas where turnout has been 
low in recent years (e.g. Sopore and Baramulla). 
 
These reports are encouraging, as they demonstrate Kashmiris' 
continuing desire to participate in the political process and 
to restore a sense of normalcy to the state.  As in the most 
recent elections in 2002 and 2004, we salute the Kashmiris' 
courage and their refusal to yield to terrorists' threats or 
to follow the heed of those who have called for a boycott. 
MULFORD