US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK801

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000801 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, TH, Elections - Thai 
SUBJECT: THAILAND:  PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE AND ELECTION 
FRAUD DISQUALIFICATIONS 
 
REF: BANGKOK 0673 
 
 1.  (SBU)  Summary:  As the February 6 date for national 
parliamentary elections in Thailand draws closer we are 
seeing frequent allegations of vote buying and even some 
reports of poll-related killings.  These activities have 
never been absent from the Thai electoral process in the 
past, but the degree to which authorities are able and 
willing to prosecute and punish political cheaters and to 
guarantee the security of campaign workers and candidates is 
one key measure of Thailand's current level of political 
maturity.  With just over a week to go before the election, 
there have been over 70 election law violation-related 
disqualifications, according to the Election Commission (EC). 
 Violence has also been reported, with 9 incidents of attacks 
on party canvassers (several resulting in deaths) and in one 
case on a parliamentary candidate.  A Mahachon Party 
candidate for Parliament has been charged with one of the 
murders.  Over the final campaign week the allegations of 
fraud - and the incidences of violence - could grow.  End 
Summary. 
 
ACCUSATIONS OF CAMPAIGN FRAUD RISING 
 
2.  (U)  The most prominent allegations of vote buying so far 
have been those against  Deputy Agriculture Minister Newin 
Chidchob -- who is heading up the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) 
electoral campaign in the South, and against Barnharn 
Silpa-archa, the veteran Chart Thai (CP) leader and former 
Thai prime minister.  In each case these high profile 
political figures have been accused (though in the case of 
Barnharn no formal complaint has been filed - yet) of 
offering money for votes.  Both Newin and Barnharn are under 
threat of being "red carded" (i.e. disqualified from the 
elections) by the National Election Commission, but as noted 
in reftel, an outcome where the full weight of the electoral 
law is applied to them seems unlikely at the moment. 
 
COMPLAINTS THAT CANVASSERS AND CANDIDATES OFFERING VOTERS 
"INCENTIVES" 
 
3.  (U)  According to the Election Commission in Bangkok, by 
January 26, over 70 election law violation-related 
disqualifications have been made.  Democrat Party, Mahachon 
Party and Chart Thai Party candidates were among those 
disqualified (along with a number of smaller party 
candidates.  So far no TRT candidates have been barred for 
violations.  Of those disqualified, 42 were party list 
candidates and 32 were contesting constituencies.  In most 
cases, the complaints involve allegations that candidates had 
violated election laws by promising cash for votes, 
distributing goods such as bags of rice to prospective 
voters, or offering free trips to popular vacation spots. 
According to electoral law procedures, complaints of election 
violations are submitted to the Provincial Election 
Commission offices and, if verified at this level, are 
forwarded to the Central Election Commission in Bangkok for 
further investigation. 
 
POLITICAL VIOLENCE 
 
4.  (U)  Since November last year, there have been 9 cases of 
violent attacks on canvassers and candidates throughout the 
country. 
 
First incident - Shooting at the residence of a TRT candidate 
in Constituency 9, Nakhon Ratchasima on November 1, 2004. 
 
Second incident - Shooting and killing of a canvasser of a 
TRT candidate in Constituency 9, Nakhon Ratchasima on 
November 24, 2004. 
 
Third incident  - Shooting and killing of a canvasser of a 
Democrat Party (DP) candidate in Constituency 2, Phrae, on 
December 04, 2004. 
 
Fourth incident - Shooting and killing of a canvasser of a 
TRT candidate in Constituency 1, Ayutthaya on January 10, 
2005.  (The Mahachon Party's Ayutthaya candidate, Surachet 
Chaikosol, has been charged with the murder.) 
 
Fifth incident - Shooting at the residence of a political 
aide to a DP candidate in Constituency 2, Phrae on January 
12, 2005. 
 
Sixth incident - Shooting and killing of a canvasser of a DP 
candidate in Constituency 2, Phichit on January 14, 2005. 
 
Seventh incident -  Shooting and killing of a canvasser of a 
Mahachon Party (MCN) candidate in Constituency 3, Chiang Rai 
on January 18, 2005. 
 
Eighth incident  - Attempted killing of a CT candidate in 
Constituency 3, Narathiwat on January 21, 2005 (the candidate 
was slightly injured but his aide remains in critical 
condition from the shooting). 
 
Ninth incident - Gun attack on the residence of a canvasser 
of a DP candidate in Constituency 2, Rayong on January 21, 
2005. 
 
CLOSING DAYS COULD SEE MORE VIOLENCE AND FRAUD ALLEGATIONS 
 
4.  (SBU)  Comment:  If past electoral experience is an 
accurate guide, the violence and charges of vote buying and 
fraud will intensify over coming days as the February 6 
polling date grows closer. 
 
BOYCE