US embassy cable - 05KUWAIT404

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000404 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARPI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, KISL, KU, IZ 
SUBJECT: KUWAITIS SPECULATE ABOUT OUTCOME OF IRAQI 
ELECTIONS BUT THIRD LOCAL SHOOT-OUT TAKES MEDIA CENTER-STAGE 
 
REF: KUWAIT 0036 
 
Classified By: DCM Matthew Tueller for reason 1.4 (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary and Comment: A third gun battle between 
militants and Kuwaiti law enforcement officials stole the 
January 30 media spotlight from what was genuine and growing 
interest in Iraq's elections.  Nonetheless, many Kuwaitis, 
while hopeful for successful elections in Iraq, are concerned 
that their failure could lead to more unrest, terror, and 
possibly an Iraqi civil war.  Kuwait's Islamists, although 
equally hopeful, are leery of a Shi'a dominant Iraqi National 
Assembly which they believe could marginalize Iraqi Sunnis 
and possibly politically empower Kuwaiti Shi'a by exerting 
influence on the GOK to raise local Shi'a political concerns. 
While some would have preferred to see elections postponed 
until there was a curb in the violence, the desire to see a 
stable and prosperous Iraq is almost universal.  There is 
likely to be a fringe element that distrusts the electoral 
process because of U.S. and Coalition involvement, but most 
understand that Kuwait will be among the first beneficiaries 
of a stable and democratic Iraq. End Summary and Comment. 
 
Praise for the Effort... 
------------------------ 
 
2. (U) The media's coverage of election day in Iraq has been 
completely drowned out by a third shoot-out between police 
and militants in Kuwait City.  In the recent run-up to the 
elections, however, many Kuwaitis have been actively watching 
and speculating on the electoral developments in Iraq. 
Kuwaitis, officially and unofficially, are hopeful for 
success but remain concerned about the growing power of any 
future Iraqi government.  Because of the ever-present memory 
of the 1990 Iraqi invasion, most are ultimately more 
concerned about having an Iraq that lives in peace with its 
neighbors than who will win more seats in the parliamentary 
elections. 
 
- Advisor to PM Shaykh Sabah, Sami Al-Nisf said it is 
irrelevant who wins as long as democracy and pluralism 
prevail. 
 
- Shi'a professor and women's rights activist Dr. Maasouma 
Al-Mubarak praised the election calling it the birth of a new 
democratic Iraq for the first time in history. 
 
- Liberal Kuwait University professor of political science 
Shamlan Al-Issa called the process the most "dangerous and 
strange democratic elections in the world."  While he 
supports the election process and expects the Shi'a to become 
the political majority, he raised questions about the 
democratic nature of the elections because no clear-cut 
platforms have been presented and most Iraqis don't even know 
the names of the candidates. 
 
... But Fearing the Result 
-------------------------- 
 
3. (U) The prospect of a Shi'a-majority government in Baghdad 
worries some Kuwaitis, particularly Sunni Islamists. Some 
believe that Iranians are trying to influence the outcome of 
the elections --- there has been speculation that Iranians 
are attempting to buy Iraqi ration cards because these serve 
as a valid document for voter registration.  Much of this 
concern stems from a fear that Kuwaiti Shi'a will become more 
politically empowered should a Baghdad government be 
dominated by Iraqi Shi'a and that Iran will hold more sway in 
the region.  Another element is that some Islamists believe 
that Iraqi Sunnis make up far more of Iraq's population than 
currently estimated -- some believe Sunnis are in the 
majority in Iraq -- and do not trust that elections will be 
free and fair if Sunnis end up in the extreme minority. 
(Note: One third of Kuwaitis are Shi'a.  While 
underrepresented in official GOK positions, they are an 
accepted minority in Kuwaiti society where some of the top 
business and military leaders are Shi'a.  There are 5 Shi'a 
MPs in the 50-member National Assembly and the only Shi'a 
Minister, Information Minister Mohammed Abulhassan recently 
resigned from his post (reftel). End note.)  PM Shaykh Sabah 
reportedly recently stressed the Kuwaiti Shi'a are "sons of 
Kuwait," and not of Iraq or Iran. 
 
- Former Oil minister and liberal Ali Al-Baghli said Kuwaitis 
are worried about the elections fearing that if not 
successful, civil war and terrorism could spread and affect 
the security and stability of Kuwait. 
 
- Hard-line Salafi Movement MP Dr. Walid Al-Tabtabaei 
expressed concern that Iraq's Sunni voters would be 
marginalized during the election to the benefit of the Shi'a. 
 
4. (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
********************************************* 
Visit Embassy Kuwait's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website 
********************************************* 
LEBARON