US embassy cable - 05ISTANBUL147

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000147 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TU, Istanbul, POLITICAL PARTIES 
SUBJECT: INTERNECINE WARFARE THREATENS TO SPLIT OPPOSITION 
CHP: THE VIEW FROM ISTANBUL 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 198 
 
     B. 04 ISTANBUL 1729 
 
Classified By: Consul General David Arnett for Reasons 1.4(b&d) 
 
1. (sbu) Summary: Republican People's Party (CHP) Chairman 
Deniz Baykal and Sisli Mayor Mustafa Sarigul are set for a 
collision course at the upcoming January 29-30 party 
congress.  Efforts by Istanbul MP Zulfu Livaneli and CHP 
delegate Hursit Gunes to present themselves as compromise 
candidates have faltered, and other Istanbul CHP contacts are 
pessimistic about the party's prospects.  With the opposition 
fragmented and unwilling to coalesce around Sarigul, Baykal 
appears to have the upper hand, our contacts say.  But his 
victory will come at the cost of a further degradation of the 
chief opposition to ruling AJustice and Development Party 
(AKP), leaving AKP to become ever more over-confident than it 
already is.  End Summary. 
 
2. (sbu) The power struggle between CHP Chairman Deniz Baykal 
and Sisli Mayor Mustafa Sarigul and the accusations tossed 
back and forth by their supporters have exposed even more CHP 
dirty laundry over the last several weeks.  Long-suppressed 
opposition to Baykal's leadership style and opposition 
strategy, frustration with corruption and drift from CHP's 
social democratic roots, and personal ambition on the part of 
assorted party members have all come to the surface. 
Moreover, because new party rules require candidates for 
party chairman to secure signatures from 20 percent (up from 
5 percent) of the 1300 some-odd delegates, the campaigns by 
Sarigul, Livaneli, and Baykal are exacerbating divisions by 
forcing delegates to declare their allegiances more openly. 
 
Views From Istanbul Insiders 
---------------------------- 
3. (c) Damla Gurel, an Istanbul MP close to former Economy 
Minister Kemal Dervis, asserted to poloff that she doesn't 
support any of the declared candidates, sees little chance 
that a consensus opposition candidate will emerge, and 
believes the party's situation is "hopeless."  Gurel 
dismissed Hursit Gunes as a serious contender and noted that 
Livaneli is widely considered to be an aloof intellectual 
with little party experience.  Gurel added that some have 
also questioned his close relationship with Baykal confidante 
and MP Bulent Tanla (Note: She subsequently signed a 
petition, along with Dervis, supporting Livaneli's candidacy. 
End Note).  As for Sarigul, Gurel said she cannot bring 
herself to support a man who offers nothing more than naked 
ambition.  Remarking that Sarigul had made overtures to 
Dervis in meetings with her, Gurel said that Dervis had 
refused to meet with him.  Looking forward to the congress, 
Gurel gave Baykal a slight advantage over Sarigul, but noted 
that several factors, including the candidates' speeches and 
their decisions on whether to put forward bloc or open lists 
for the party board, could be decisive. 
 
4. (c) Former Istanbul CHP Chairman Mehmet Boluk, an 
outspoken critic of Deniz Baykal, told poloff that the party 
is in a "terrible situation," predicting that Baykal would 
turn back Sarigul's challenge easily in a head-to-head 
contest.  Consequently, he has worked closely with other 
party insiders to identify a third "consensus" candidate 
(probably Hasan Fehmi Gunes) and to convince Sarigul to 
withdraw his nomination.  Boluk claimed to be working closely 
with former CHP Chairman Altan Oymen, former CHP SecGen 
Ertugrul Gunay, and MPs Abdulkadir Ates, Hasan Fehmi Gunes, 
and others.  According to Boluk, Ates has led the 
negotiations with Sarigul and has reported that while Sarigul 
is prepared to accept a consensus candidate, some of his 
supporters are still pushing him to challenge Baykal 
directly.  Boluk predicted that Sarigul would eventually back 
down (Note: Sarigul declared his candidacy on January 27. End 
Note).  Like Gurel, Boluk said the congress speeches would be 
important, but that the "open vote" format will favor Baykal. 
 Whichever candidate wins, Boluk predicted that the party 
will split. 
 
5. (c) Particularly downbeat about the party's prospects, 
former CHP Secretary General and Radikal columnist Tarhan 
Erdem noted that Baykal is merely the result (not the cause) 
of a party that has been gradually "hollowed out" over the 
last 30 years.  Drawing from his personal efforts to reform 
the party in 1999-2000, Erdem concluded that CHP cannot be 
reformed from within and that the only ideological division 
remaining for party members is whether or not one supports 
Baykal.  Although skeptical of Sarigul's moral character and 
political platform, Erdem has been favorably impressed by the 
new "dynamic" that he has introduced into the debate by means 
of what Erdem calls Sarigul's gifted organization and people 
skills.  Erdem dismissed critics who accuse Sarigul of 
"buying" support and cited examples of old party friends who 
had been inspired to volunteer to help Sarigul.  Erdem 
predicted that Livaneli's January 28 decision to withdraw 
would work to Baykal's favor (i.e., Livaneli would have 
attracted many of Baykal's supporters) and forecast a narrow, 
but by no means assured, Baykal victory.  Agreeing with 
Boluk, Erdem expected the party to split following the 
congress. 
 
CHP Anti-American Rhetoric 
-------------------------- 
6. (c) Gurel was sharply critical of recent anti-American 
remarks made by Dervis and other CHP figures and told poloff 
that Baykal confidante and MP Attila Emek had been 
circulating a paper among MPs and delegates that made 
spurious charges slandering and linking Dervis, Hursit Gunes, 
Sarigul, and the United States.  Boluk, who had also received 
the paper, characterized it as a shallow attempt to fling mud 
on Baykal's opponents (Comment: and the U.S. End Comment). 
Erdem dismissed such remarks as cheap attempts to curry votes 
among the "ignorant, nationalistic" elements of the party. 
 
Comment 
------- 
7. (c) Prompted by the personal rivalry between Baykal and 
Sarigul, it is clear from Istanbul that the CHP crisis that 
will come to a head at the January 29 congress represents a 
decisive moment for the party.  Efforts among the Baykal 
opposition to identify a consensus candidate appear to have 
failed and may force many to choose what they see as the 
'lesser of evils,' setting the stage for one or more groups 
to break away from the party.  Absent an (unlikely) 
last-minute compromise on a candidate who could hold the 
party together and pave the way for meaningful reform, we 
think the CHP that emerges from the upcoming congress will be 
weak, divided, and no real political threat to the ruling 
AKP, whose image has certainly not been hurt by the CHP 
infighting.  False intimations of USG support (by Sarigul) 
and anti-American insinuations (by Baykal's supporters) are 
short-sighted attempts to score points and suggest that CHP 
will continue to place short-term political gains ahead of 
improved U.S.-Turkish relations. 
ARNETT