US embassy cable - 05LAGOS116

S E C R E T LAGOS 000116 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR, AF/W, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINS, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN POLITICIANS CONTINUE GRUMBLING ABOUT 
OBASANJO 
 
REF: A. 04 LAGOS 2591 
 
     B. 04 LAGOS 2592 
     C. 04 LAGOS 2513 
     D. ABUJA 48 
     E. 04 ABUJA 2075 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d 
 
1.  (S)  Summary: Based on the Consul General's conversations 
with several political contacts over the past few days, 
dissatisfaction with President Obasanjo is again escalating 
following a brief respite over the holidays.  The whispering 
about whether Obasanjo should be removed from office is 
becoming much more audible.  Support is lukewarm for the 
president's proposed national dialogue; some consider it a 
ploy to extend his own power.  Several prominent Ijaw and 
Yoruba leaders, in particular, continue to push for a 
sovereign national conference, possibly as a vehicle to bid 
Obasanjo farewell.  End summary. 
 
2.  (S)  As Nigeria emerges from the holiday season, talk of 
dissatisfaction with President Obasanjo is spreading among 
the southern political class.  The Anambra political crisis 
and the ouster of People's Democratic Party (PDP) Chairman 
Audu Ogbeh have given additional ammunition to Obasanjo's 
critics (Reftels).  Delta State Governor James Ibori 
recounted that Obasanjo had invited several governors to a 
private meeting wherein he excoriated Vice President Atiku 
and asked the state executives to side with him in the Audu 
Ogbeh fracas.  Immediately after the meeting, the governors 
phoned Atiku to tell him what transpired, according to Ibori. 
 (Comment: Many of the governors present at the meeting are 
aligned with Atiku and Ogbeh.  End Comment). 
 
3. (S)  Political figures have been actively meeting across 
party lines and ethnic affiliations and their talk has been 
focused on Obasanjo's failings and the parlous political 
conditions in the country.  A prominent attorney told us that 
rumors are circulating among the political class that VP 
Atiku has told his allies within the PDP that he has given up 
on Obasanjo and does not care whether he is removed by 
constitutional (impeachment) or other means.  It is equally a 
matter of political chatter that Atiku and some of his PDP 
allies have begun to pay agents provocateurs to begin 
fomenting trouble within the government and in different 
areas of the country to further erode Obasanjo's ability to 
govern.  (Comment: We cannot judge the veracity of these 
rumors.  However, this type of chatter is persistent.  End 
Comment). 
 
4. (S) Some Southern leaders are outraged by Obasanjo's call 
for a national dialogue.  They see it as an ersatz substitute 
for the sovereign national conference they have been 
advocating and Obasanjo has been opposing.  Some worry that 
behind the proposed dialogue is a ploy to craft a 
constitutional amendment that would allow an Obasanjo third 
term or a tactic to get an Obasanjo surrogate into power if a 
third term proves impossible. 
 
5. (S) Certain Ijaw and Yoruba leaders, in particular, are 
actively promoting a national conference.  The largest ethnic 
group in the Niger Delta, Ijaws feel slighted regarding the 
existing revenue allocation structure.  They want devolution 
of power away from Abuja to the state.  In short, they want 
to keep much more of the oil revenue at home. 
 
6. (S) Many Yorubas are disappointed with Obasanjo's 
performance.  They think he has squandered the "Yoruba's time 
in office" by not moving the economy forward and also by 
aggrandizing power in the center.  Decentralization has been 
a traditional theme of Yoruba politics but Obasanjo has 
ignored it, much to his ethnic kin's chagrin.  Additionally, 
many of them believe that should the PDP presidential 
nomination boil down to a race between Atiku and former head 
of state Ibrahim Babangida, Obasanjo would side with the 
latter.  However, Babangida is anathema to many Yoruba 
politicians because of his 1993 annulment of elections that 
would have brought the Yoruba Moshood Abiola into power. 
Instead of it being a venue to discuss issues such as the 
constitution and Nigeria's federal structure, some now want 
to use the proposed conference as a vehicle to advocate the 
removal of Obasanjo. 
 
7. (U) This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja. 
KRAMER