US embassy cable - 05DHAKA360

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000360 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/PB AND SA/PD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PGOV, PREL, PHUM, BG, BGD Elections 
SUBJECT: ANOTHER LETHAL ATTACK ON THE AWAMI LEAGUE 
 
REF: 01/27/05 ENGELKEN-MCCULLOUGH E-MAIL 
 
Classified By: P/E Counselor D.C. McCullough, reasons para 1.5 b. 
 
 1.  (C) Summary. The January 27 attack that killed former 
Awami League finance minister Kibria and at least three other 
party activists is the latest in a series of unsolved 
assaults on opposition leaders.  There are reports of 
scattered AL protests, mainly in the area of the attack.  It 
is unclear if the AL's upcoming national strike will be more 
effective or violent than prior efforts to force the BDG to 
resign.  See paras 8 and 9 for suggested press guidance and 
points for a S-PM Zia phone call (ref).  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) On January 27, a grenade attack killed MP and former 
AL finance minister Shah A.M.S. Kibria at an Awami League 
(AL) rally with constituents near his hometown in the Sylhet 
division of northeast Bangladesh, according to press reports, 
AL officials, and local contacts.  At least three other AL 
activists, including Kibria's nephew, were killed, and 
approximately 70 persons were wounded.  A general strike is 
in effect in the area of the attack.  The AL has announced a 
three-day nationwide strike for January 29-31. 
 
Reaction 
-------- 
 
3. (SBU) On January 28, AL activists have stopped and are 
detaining a passenger train from Sylhet.  Amid rising 
tensions, scores of buses and trucks have reportedly been 
stopped from entering the area.  There have been several 
protest rallies elsewhere in Sylhet district, including one 
near the municipal headquarters in Sylhet city which the 
mayor, from the Awami League, is expected to address shortly. 
 In Dhaka, after Friday prayers, presumed AL activists set on 
fire a BNP branch office in old Dhaka.  As of 1700 local, 
there are no reports of injuries from any of the incidents. 
 
4. (SBU) Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia, President Iajuddin 
Ahmed, and BNP Secretary General Mannan Bhuyian have issued 
statements condemning the attack and promising to bring the 
perpetrators to justice.  Bhuyian, the BNP's unofficial 
conciliator, characterized the attack as an "act against 
humanity."  (Note: Based on previous attacks, BNP leaders in 
a few days will allege the AL itself carried out the attack, 
perhaps noting, in this case, the well-known AL splits in 
Sylhet.)  From the AL side, on a private satellite television 
channel, MP Tofail Ahmed has already blamed the BDG for the 
attack.  AL president Sheikh Hasina and the BNP's Bhuyian are 
expected to hold press conferences later today.  Hasina will 
likely attribute the attack to BNP/Jamaat Islami members and 
demand the BDG's immediate resignation. 
 
5. (C) On January 28, British High Commissioner Anwar 
Chowdhury and EC Ambassador Esko Kentrschynskyj told DCM that 
last night's attack was even more serious than the August 21 
attack on the AL leadership in Dhaka.  Kibria, they noted, 
was a senior AL leader and an outspoken critic of Islamists. 
Chowdhury added he has recommended that Foreign Secretary 
Straw call Zia to condemn the attack and, perhaps, say her 
government's credibility is on the line.  The British DCM 
later called DCM to inform her that the EU chiefs of mission 
had met and decided to visit the Kibria family tonight, 
demarche the MFA and visit Sheikh Hasina on January 30, and 
move forward on a strong press statement. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6. (C) The 73-year-old Kibria was a party elder whose 
international stature and experience brought much-needed 
gravitas to the AL leadership.  Despite declining health, he 
was effectively the AL's shadow finance minister.  The August 
21 attack had the reckless but conceivable political logic of 
decapitating and perhaps destroying the Awami League.  The 
January 27 attack, however, is particularly disturbing 
because it seems to represent a broader political terrorism 
designed to intimidate and stifle opposition.  The attack 
underscores the consequences of failing to solve prior 
high-profile attacks on the opposition.  After the 
assassination of MP Ahsanullah Master in June and the August 
21 attack, the AL used strikes to spearhead pressure on the 
BDG to resign on the grounds it had failed to provide 
security for the country.  Those efforts never gained 
traction, and it is unclear if this time the AL will do any 
better. 
 
7. (C) This time, however, the potential for violence and 
prolonged confrontation may be growing.  AL hard-liners argue 
that the AL's relative restraint in the past has failed as a 
political tactic and as a deterrent to future attacks. 
Moreover, the AL is floundering as an effective opposition 
and seems to be able to focus and take the initiative only 
after it has been victimized by high-level attacks.  AL 
frustration and insecurity could promote a more aggressive 
approach. End Comment. 
 
Suggested Press Guidance 
------------------------ 
 
8. (U) Begin draft: 
 
We strongly condemn the January 27 attack in northeastern 
Bangladesh that took the lives of former finance minister 
Shah A.M.S. Kibria and at least three other Awami League 
activists, and injured some 70 people.  This incident is the 
latest in a disturbing series of often deadly attacks on 
prominent leaders of the political opposition and civil 
society.  Like the assault at the August 21 Awami League 
rally in Dhaka, this incident is an attack on democracy 
itself. 
 
These continuing acts of political violence underscore the 
critical importance of solving and preventing such crimes. 
The failure to bring to justice the perpetrators of these 
crimes promotes an intimidating climate of insecurity and 
impunity that encourages further attacks.  We urge the 
Bangladesh Government in the strongest possible terms to 
identify, arrest, and prosecute those persons responsible for 
political terrorism. 
 
We extend our deepest condolences to the families and friends 
of those persons killed and injured in the January 27 attack. 
 We urge all Bangladeshis to exercise maximum restraint and, 
even in these difficult circumstances, to pursue their 
political objectives and their search for justice in a 
peaceful and lawful manner. 
 
Suggested Talking Points for an S-PM Zia telephone call 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
9. (C) Begin points: 
 
-- One of my first calls as Secretary is to you because I 
want to share with you my great concern over the January 27 
attack. 
 
-- Unfortunately, this attack is only the latest in a series 
of high-profile attacks on opposition political leaders. 
 
-- I'm concerned that the people responsible for these crimes 
never get caught. In our view, the investigation of the 
August 21 was not credible and has therefore encouraged more 
attacks. 
 
-- I hope the January 27 investigation will be different and 
provide evidence that your government has the will to solve 
such crimes. 
 
-- I urge your government to take effective action to halt 
political terrorism and to start creating now the right 
climate for a credible and successful general election. 
 
-- The January 27 attack was in an area, Sylhet, which has a 
history of violence involving political and religious 
targets.  In May, there was the attack that seriously injured 
the British High Commissioner.  Many suspect Islamist 
extremists are involved in these attacks.  To bolster 
Bangladesh's standing as a tolerant, moderate country, it is 
important that your government take visible steps to control 
extremism. 
 
-- I will be calling Sheikh Hasina to condole her on the 
death of her party members. 
THOMAS