US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI709

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000709 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2015 
TAGS: PINR, PINS, PREL, PGOV, IN, PK, External Political Relations 
SUBJECT: INDIA REINVENTING NSA POSITION 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 301 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake, Jr. Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (U) This is an action request.  Please see para 11. 
 
2.  (C) Summary: MK Narayanan, formally named on January 25 
as India's new NSA, will be a different kind of National 
Security Adviser than his high-profile, powerful 
predecessors, JN Dixit and Brajesh Mishra.  After several 
weeks of debate over who and what kind of a NSA the country 
needs, PM Manmohan Singh has decided on the low-profile 
Narayanan in a scaled-down role.  The new NSA will reportedly 
lose key portfolios Dixit and Mishra had, including the 
backchannel with Pakistan and negotiator for boundary talks 
with China, and the rest of the job description remains 
unclear, but Narayanan will apparently be tasked with 
reinvigorating India's national security institutions, such 
as its moribund NSC.  The NSA's reduced diplomatic function 
is a victory for the Foreign Minister, who had fought to 
regain the dominant role in Indian foreign policy he lost to 
Mani Dixit.  Narayanan will be joined by a new deputy NSA and 
new RAW and IB chiefs.  In the weeks ahead, the GOI will 
define the NSA position further, but for now we do not appear 
to have with Narayanan the "one-stop shop" for all foreign 
policy issues that we enjoyed with his two predecessors. 
Mission recommends an early introductory phone call from NSA 
Hadley to his new counterpart.  End Summary. 
 
Narayanan Gets Dixit's Title; Job is Evolving 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) The January 25 announcement that acting NSA MK 
Narayanan would replace JN Dixit on a permanent basis has not 
ended speculation on what kind of an NSA Narayanan will be. 
PMO Minister of State Prithviraj Chavan recently told 
reporters that "a redefinition of the role of the NSA may be 
in the cards," while PM Singh reportedly sounded out over a 
dozen people over the past three weeks -- including Mishra, 
former Defense Secretary K Subrahmanyan, and former High 
Commissioner to Pakistan SK Lambah -- to that effect. 
Although no official announcements in this regard have yet 
been made, press reports citing unnamed GOI officials suggest 
that Narayanan will retain his internal security portfolio 
but will not take up the diplomatic roles of his 
predecessors.  Numerous media commentators have opined that 
the change will permit Narayanan to address other NSA 
functions, such as internal and economic security, which 
Dixit and Mishra neglected. 
 
Giving Diplomacy Back to the MEA 
-------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) The widely rumored selection of Satish Lambah 
(septel) to serve as the backchannel with Pakistani NSA Tariq 
Aziz on Indo-Pak talks reinforces the GOI's transformation of 
the NSA position, as does FM Natwar Singh's thinly-veiled 
indication -- reported on January 28 by well-connected "Times 
of India" Foreign Affairs correspondent Indrani Bagchi -- 
that retired UN PermRep Vijay Nambiar would take up the 
charge of Special Envoy for the India-China boundary talks. 
(NOTE: On January 27, Lambah told PolCouns that no decision 
had yet been made regarding his appointment.  End Note.) 
Both Lambah and Nambiar are viewed as close to Natwar, which 
extends the MEA's clear victory in lodging diplomacy firmly 
"back where it belongs."  Narayanan is expected to accompany 
PM Singh to the February 6-7 SAARC Summit, where he will have 
the opportunity to meet the Pakistanis, not as India's 
point-person on foreign policy, but as an aide to the PM. 
 
Back to the Original Mandate 
---------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) The PM's decision to redefine the NSA position 
appears to be the first step in implementing the Congress 
Party election promise to turn the National Security Council 
into a "professional and effective" institution.  For the 
last year, but especially since Dixit's death, a number of 
Indian strategists have argued for restoring the position's 
original mandate, in which the NSA reports to an NSC 
comprised of the PM with the Home, Foreign, Finance and 
Defense Ministers and the Deputy Chairman of the Planning 
Commission.  It was envisioned at that time that the NSC 
would focus on external threats; security issues surrounding 
atomic energy, space and high technology; security related to 
global economic trends; domestic "patterns of alienation" 
(i.e. separatist groups); trans-national threats such as 
narco-trafficking and arms smuggling; and coordination of 
intelligence collection and activities.  Such a reform would 
bring the NSA position more in line with that of other senior 
GOI officials and end the "super-minister" status that 
Narayanan's two predecessors enjoyed. 
 
6.  (C) An NSA focused on security and institution-building 
and away from personal diplomacy is likely to increase the 
role of the NSC and its Secretariat.  Brahma Chellany of New 
Delhi's Centre for Policy Research described the 
"twice-established (1990 and 1999), twice-dormant" NSC as an 
"archetypal case of how good intentions can go wrong" when 
strong NSAs such as Dixit and Mishra were able to eclipse and 
ignore the NSC, and turn the National Security Advisory Board 
into "a PR shop for the NSA."  Noted strategist K 
Subrahmanyan has also been pushing for a forward-looking NSA 
and NSC that would "coordinate and promote integrated 
thinking among the Home, Defense, External Affairs and 
Finance Ministries" toward devising "long-term policies based 
on the assessments of long-term problems."  "What is needed 
is an NSA who will be a team leader with a balanced 
worldview, able to lead a multi-disciplinary team and 
committed to building the institution ... and not be 
considered a threat by any of the Cabinet ministers who are 
to become members of the NSC."  Narayanan has yet to prove 
that he is a strategic thinker in the mold of his 
predecessors, or that he can provide that "balanced 
worldview." 
 
What Narayanan Brings to the Table 
------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Narayanan has a number of the qualities that would be 
valuable if the NSA is in fact recast as outlined above.  He 
is a proven manager, having twice served as head of the 
Intelligence Bureau (IB), and will have as one of his first 
assignments streamlining the national security policymaking 
process.  He recently told reporters, "The idea is to cut 
through the bureaucracy even in the PMO and hasten the pace 
of decisionmaking."  Further, Narayanan has held other senior 
advisory posts, and is comfortable being the bearer of bad 
news, which is an inevitable task for an NSA (reftel). 
 
8.  (C) By his own admission, Narayanan is a security and 
intelligence professional who prefers to work out of the 
limelight.  Divesting the NSA from diplomacy will allow 
Narayanan to focus on the internal and external security 
issues that are his forte, including the anticipated 
"emergency overhaul" of RAW under its newly-named chief, PK 
Hormis Tharakan, and addressing the rise in domestic Maoist 
violence and separatism that the new IB director, ESL 
Narasimhan, will face.  We expect that the low-profile 
Narayanan will not offer policy pronouncements that later 
need to be walked back by the PM, such as Dixit's telling 
journalists that New Delhi would accept a permanent UNSC seat 
minus veto power. 
 
Narayanan Will Soon Have a New Deputy 
------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) With Narayanan's appointment, PM Singh will need to 
consider a new Deputy NSA if the incumbent, former diplomat 
Satish Chandra, retires as expected on January 31.  The 
individual selected for this post will further define the 
NSA's role, since he or she will (under the current 
arrangement) sit at the top of the NSC organization.  The 
merging of the external and internal security portfolios 
under the NSA post has not yet been officially announced -- 
so a new Special Adviser to the PM on Internal Security could 
also be selected, although Narayanan's IB background makes 
that unlikely. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (C) The changes the GOI has in store for the NSA 
position appear to be significant.  Divesting the India-China 
boundary talks and Indo-Pak back channel from Narayanan's 
responsibilities downgrades the power and visibility of the 
office, and represents a victory for the Foreign Minister, 
who is no doubt pleased that the PM has returned diplomacy 
"back where it belongs."  Redefining the NSA also reflects 
the PM's desire to strengthen institutions that have 
atrophied under Dixit and Mishra, who used the position to 
pursue larger-than-life foreign policy roles.  These changes 
will have implications for how the USG deals with Narayanan, 
as we lose the "one-stop shop" on India's foreign policy 
concerns and the "go-to" person with the vision and clout 
necessary to move initiatives pigeon-holed in the GOI's 
turf-conscious bureaucracies. 
 
11.  (C) Nonetheless, Narayanan's office just down the hall 
from the PM, his longstanding relationship with Sonia Gandhi, 
and his demonstrated intellect will make him a force to be 
reckoned with in the UPA government.  Narayanan has welcomed 
contact with Mission interlocutors and remains always 
accessible.  With all this in mind, Mission recommends an 
early introductory call from NSA Hadley to his new Indian 
counterpart. 
MULFORD