US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI362

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000362 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: TAIPEI AGONIZES OVER RESPONSE TO ANTI-SECESSION LAW 
 
REF: TAIPEI 266 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Chen administration officials say they fear 
that action on the proposed Anti-Secession Law will deal a 
major blow to the government's diplomatic, cross-Strait, and 
domestic political interests.  Concern over the PRC law is 
fueled by an internal assessment that the PRC law will 
criminalize "Taiwan independence activities," offering 
Beijing leverage to harass DPP political and business 
supporters.  They also express fears that the law will be 
dismissed by Taiwan society, the USG, and the international 
community as non-threatening.  Officials are urging a tough, 
but measured, public response, but say they fear that events, 
and their own president, could pull the agenda away from 
them.  AIT has urged caution in Taiwan's public statements at 
least until the PRC reveals the contents of the proposed law. 
 However, officials say that the President may repeat his 
January 20 public warning about holding an anti-PRC 
referendum in the coming days and weeks if leaders in Beijing 
tout plans for the new law in public fora.  End Summary. 
 
Taipei's Dilemma 
---------------- 
 
2. (C) Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Chen 
administration officials say they are increasingly concerned 
over how the PRC's proposed Anti-Secession Law will impact on 
Taipei's domestic, cross-Strait, and international standing. 
Officials and Taiwan scholars say they fear the PRC will use 
the law to criminalize activities defined by Beijing as 
"splittist" (Reftel), a move they claim could isolate the 
ruling party from sectors of Taiwan society involved with 
business and travel to the Mainland (Comment: some also warn 
that PRC allies may even extradite "splittists" at Beijing's 
request.  End Comment.).  DPP Deputy Secretary General Chung 
Chia-bing, a member of the party's moderate New Tide faction, 
told AIT that the deepest fear within the ruling party is 
that the PRC will pass a law that will, over the long run, 
undermine Taiwan's de facto independence in such a subtle way 
that people in Taiwan and in the international community will 
not realize the seriousness of the threat. 
 
3. (C) Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Senior Secretary Jan 
Jyh-horng told AIT that Taipei is also concerned that the new 
law will push future PRC policy in negative directions.  Jan 
predicted that the PRC law would be ambiguously worded, but 
less so than the current set of PRC cross-Strait policy 
guidelines.  Jan warned that PRC hard-liners could interpret 
Taiwan actions in their own way and demand that policymakers 
fulfill the legal requirement to counter "splittist" 
activities.  Jan added that the recent charter flight 
experience shows that flexibility is the only effective means 
to advance cross-Strait relations, and any attempt to codify 
policy is likely to limit Beijing's future room to maneuver. 
"They likely mean to constrain us with the law, but they may 
find that they are constraining their own ability to set the 
policy agenda," he remarked. 
 
No Good Option 
-------------- 
 
4. (C) According to the DPP's Chung, the Chen administration 
believes the best response to Beijing's moves would be to 
mobilize a multi-partisan mass movement to protest the law 
modeled on the 2003 demonstrations held in Hong Kong to 
protest revisions to Article 23 of the Basic Law.  Chung told 
AIT that the DPP has asked pro-independence groups not to 
lead such an effort.  "If the Chen government or independence 
activists do something, Beijing, the international community, 
and many in Taiwan will dismiss it as more troublemaking by 
Taiwan," he added.  However, Chung said that thus far, the 
DPP has failed to convince Taiwan's public or opposition 
parties to mobilize.  "They simply do not feel an immediate 
threat," he commented, "it is like a frog in a pot being 
boiled so slowly it doesn't realize it is being cooked." 
(Comment: Chung may be underestimating opposition concern. 
KMT Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou has expressed publicly, and 
People First Party (PFP) Policy Chief Vincent Chang conveyed 
to AIT privately, deep concerns over the implications of 
Beijing's plans.  End Comment.)  Officials also fret that 
President Chen's track record of rocking the boat on 
cross-Strait relations will make it easy for Beijing to 
convince the international community that the Anti-Secession 
Law is a harmless document. 
Measured Hard-line 
------------------ 
 
5. (C) DPP officials say they only have limited time to come 
up with a solution before pro-independence fundamentalists 
use the issue to seize the initiative on cross-Strait policy. 
 Former President Lee Teng-hui organized a meeting of 
pro-independence leaders on January 25 to discuss a plan to 
turn ceremonies marking the February 28 anniversary of the 
Kaohsiung Incident into a mass rally against Beijing.  Lee's 
Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) announced on January 27 that it 
would sponsor an "Anti-Annexation Law" in the Spring 
legislative session.  Y.Y. Lee, the DPP's other Deputy 
Secretary General and organizer of the million-plus person 
 
SIPDIS 
2/28 "Protect Taiwan" rally in 2004, told AIT that the DPP 
will inevitably participate in the 2/28 rally, even if it 
does not organize it.  He predicted that Lee Teng-hui and his 
allies could mobilize at least 100,000 people for an 
anti-Anti-Secession Law/pro-independence rally without active 
DPP logistical support. 
 
6. (C) DPP officials have promised pro-independence activists 
the government will make a tough official response in 
exchange for a promise to delay their mobilization efforts. 
Presidential Office Deputy Secretary General James Huang 
explained that President Chen Shui-bian's January 20 warning 
(Reftel) about Taiwan enacting an "Anti-Annexation Law" or 
holding a referendum to protest Beijing's legislative moves 
were meant to warn PRC leaders against crafting a 
toughly-worded law.  While Huang and NSC officials tell AIT 
that no decision has been made over specific policy measures 
Taipei may take in response to PRC moves, they say the 
president is under pressure to hang tough on the issue. 
Huang told AIT on January 27 that Chen may reiterate his 
warning about passing a countervailing law or holding an 
anti-PRC referendum if senior level PRC officials publicly 
raise the Anti-Secession Law.  Strait Exchange Foundation 
(SEF) Deputy Secretary General Yen Wan-ching, a confidante of 
NSC Secretary General Chiou I-jen, told AIT on January 27 
that Chiou ordered the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) to 
downgrade planned feel-good PR efforts surrounding the launch 
of cross-Strait Lunar New Year charter flights so as not to 
conflict with a possible high-level public warning from the 
president over the Anti-Secession Law.  MAC's Jan told AIT 
that while MAC is urging restraint, "there are many over at 
the Presidential Office who want to hit Beijing hard on the 
issue." 
 
Stop Us Before We Provoke Again 
------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Chen administration officials acknowledge to AIT that 
Chen's threats and planned actions by pro-independence groups 
could create a vicious cycle that will only harden Beijing's 
resolve to pass a tough law in March.  Huang and other Taiwan 
officials say they have been reassured by their recent 
exchanges with U.S. counterparts in Washington and Taipei 
that the USG does not take the PRC's moves over the 
Anti-Secession Law lightly.  Huang, MAC's Jan, and SEF's Yen 
told AIT on January 27-28 that they would positively convey 
AIT's request for caution to President Chen and NSC SecGen 
Chiou.  Huang told AIT that, at the very least, he would 
coordinate with AIT before Chen makes any sharp statements to 
the media over the Anti-Secession Law.  The DPP's Chung urged 
Washington to go a step further and convey to Beijing the 
message that its moves over the Anti-Secession Law were 
undermining the PRC's own interests.  "We have finally moved 
the political process back onto a more moderate course," he 
added, "but this could derail everything and bring us back to 
the counter-productive cycle of the past two years."  The 
DPP's Lee warned, however, that nothing short of a full 
reversal on Beijing's part will prevent the law from 
triggering a new cycle of public recriminations.  "The 
contents don't matter, all they have to do is pass a law with 
the words 'Anti-Secession' in it and you will have a strong 
push-back from Taiwan," he warned. 
 
Comment: A Closing Window? 
-------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Chen administration officials are clearly driven by a 
sense of foreboding over what may happen during the coming 
three months over the Anti-Secession Law.  It is taken as 
almost an article of faith among Chen administration 
officials that the PRC Law will criminalize "Taiwan 
independence activities," broadly defined, giving Beijing a 
lever to single out and punish DPP leaders and their business 
supporters at a time of their choosing.  Many also say they 
feel isolated, both internally and internationally, in their 
concerns over the PRC law.  These two assumptions are driving 
the policy process in assertive, and counterproductive, 
directions.  AIT will continue to urge Taiwan officials to 
exercise restraint until it sees the actual contents of the 
proposed law.  However, with the planned 2/28 rallies in 
February, the opening of the National People's Congress (NPC) 
in March, and the campaign for Taiwan's National Assembly in 
April, the calendar does not lend itself to moderate 
discourse. 
PAAL