US embassy cable - 05AMMAN712

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000712 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, KMPI, JO 
SUBJECT: ANNOUNCEMENT OF ROYAL DECENTRALIZATION INITIATIVE 
LEAVES MANY QUESTIONS UNANSWERED 
 
REF: AMMAN 00639 (NOTAL) 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) King Abdullah gave a nationally televised speech 
January 26 announcing his intention to divide the country 
into "a number of development regions," each with its own 
directly-elected council (previewed reftel).  The King said 
this would help move government decision-making closer to the 
grassroots level, and that he planned to form a royal 
commission soon to propose mechanisms for its implementation. 
 Initial press reaction was predictably positive; several 
post contacts expressed cautious optimism, but said that many 
unanswered questions would have to be addressed before a real 
assessment could be made.  Privately, Royal Court Minister 
Rifai has described the proposal for G-8 COMs in detail, 
placed it in context of G-8/BMENA, and sought moral and 
tangible assistance.  End Summary. 
 
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AN UNEXPECTED MOVE 
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2.  (U) With no advance public notice, King Abdullah 
presented a speech on national TV and radio at 8:00 pm local 
time on January 26.  Emphasizing his commitment to achieving 
"comprehensive development," the King highlighted the need to 
"expand the base of public participation" in political life 
and asserted that "political development should start at the 
grassroots level, then move up to decision making centers." 
In this context, the King declared his intention to create 
"development areas, or regions" consisting of various 
existing governorates.  Each such area, the King explained, 
will have a directly-elected council that will work with 
municipal councils to "set priorities and draw up plans and 
programs related to their respective regions."  King Abdullah 
added that he would shortly form a royal commission to 
"study" this initiative and to "set the appropriate 
mechanisms for its implementation." 
 
3.  (C) The King's speech was very general and did not 
mention many of the points made by Royal Court Minister Samir 
Rifai in his January 25 preview of the initiative to Charge 
(ref).  It did not, for example, provide any information on 
the number of "development areas" to be created, the powers 
to be exercised by the new councils, or the impact, if any, 
on current government ministries and parliament.  Neither did 
the speech offer a time frame for the work of the royal 
commission.  Shortly before the speech, Rifai convoked G-8 
COMs and put the initiative in the context of strengthening 
Jordan's reform efforts.  The royal commission's job would be 
to develop draft legislation, and advise on other changes 
needed, to create three states.  These would be in the 
northern, southern and central areas, with capitals in Irbid, 
Karak and Amman (special provisions would be made to preserve 
the autonomy of Aqaba and the QIZs).  Each state would have 
an elected parliament and an executive, who might be 
initially appointed but later elected (Rifai hinted that 
movement toward elected executives might go in tandem with 
making the Prime Minister subject to some sort of election, 
as well.)  The aim was to strengthen a grassroots democratic 
system more responsive to local priorities, and able to 
coordinate development projects on a regional basis - 
although the central government would retain a strong role in 
such matters as education and security.  It was also hoped 
that this move would improve the work and quality of the 
national parliament by removing their responsibilities to 
manage local constituent needs.  Truly national parties might 
begin to flourish in such an environment, Rifai said. 
 
4.  (C) As for the local parliaments, Rifai stated their 
members might number between 60 and 100, and there may 
initially be quotas to ensure adequate representation by 
women and youth.  He anticipated local parliamentary 
elections would come well before 2007, and noted there might 
need to be adjustments in the term of the current national 
parliament.  Rifai envisioned a package approach, combining 
the royal commission's work on this federalization initiative 
with the government's work on a new national electoral and 
parties law - to be unveiled together later in 2005.  For the 
time being, Rifai said, none of the reforms would require a 
constitutional amendment.  Jordan hoped for moral and 
material help from the G-8.  While Jordan would not 
explicitly link this initiative to the G-8/BMENA process, it 
was in fact connected.  Jordanian officials hoped this effort 
would facilitate other Middle East political experiments. 
 
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PRESS LAUDS THE KING 
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5.  (SBU) Despite the generality of the King's address, the 
local press responded very favorably (and predictably) to the 
decentralization proposal.  The English-language daily The 
Jordan Times applauded the King for "taking his vision for 
reform to the streets," while criticizing parliament for 
being "preoccupied with itself rather than its 
constituencies."  Along the same lines, Arabic weekly Shihan, 
widely seen as the mouthpiece for the General Intelligence 
Directorate, carried a large headline reading "The King's 
revolution," while just below another headline read "56% of 
Jordanians have no confidence in their (parliamentary) 
deputies."  Prominent Arabic daily Al-Rai's lead commentary 
described the King's initiative as "a qualitative leap on the 
road to wide and comprehensive political participation." 
 
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MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS 
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6.  (C) Several post contacts have expressed guarded optimism 
about the decentralization plan, but all have cautioned that 
there are far too many unanswered questions to make any kind 
of informed assessment.  Leading political analyst Jamal 
Tahat, for example, said the initiative was "rich with 
possibilities," but added that he could not offer any 
evaluation until he learned more details, including the 
members of the royal commission.  Other hyped proposals, he 
noted, had previously turned out to be a bust.  Deputy 
Speaker of Parliament Mamdouh Abbadi, who dutifully appeared 
on TV and radio directly after the King's speech to praise 
the plan, likewise was cautious in his opinion.  During a 
dinner with emboffs, Abbadi remarked that he had been given a 
copy of the speech to review less than an hour before the 
King took to the airwaves, and that he could not speculate on 
the possible benefits of the proposal until he learned 
further information.  Based on his experience with his MP 
colleagues, however, he was skeptical that the proposed new 
"regional councils" would be effective governing bodies. 
 
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COMMENT 
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7.  (C) The dearth of detail in the King's speech gives the 
palace and the GOJ plenty of leeway in deciding how to move 
forward on (or how to pull back from) this potentially 
ambitious project, although Rifai's account suggests the King 
has a fairly specific agenda in mind.  When asked by a G-8 
COM, Rifai indicated that only a tiny handful of aides had 
been privy to the initiative.  It will be the job of the 
royal commission to work on the details, iron out wrinkles 
and build national consensus.  The unfolding of that process 
will tell us much about the intended structure, 
responsibilities and powers of the new regional governments, 
and how the powers of the national parliament will be 
affected.  Finance Minister Abu Hammour told EconCouns 
January 27 that the regions would not have their own separate 
budgets or any taxation powers, but would instead develop a 
list of needs and priorities and then lobby the GOJ for funds 
accordingly.  Rifai indicated that the new states would be 
given control over their own budgets, but not tax 
authorities.  In such details will be the evidence of how 
extensive a devolution of power will occur.  But in any 
calculation, the King has launched an important and 
innovative initiative to draw greater public participation 
into the political process and stronger grassroots control 
over issues that matter into Jordanians' daily lives.  In our 
public statements, we should avoid an overly tight embrace of 
an initiative that should best be seen as homegrown, but our 
public encouragement is warranted.  Though USAID, the USG has 
supported Jordanian efforts toward decentralization, and we 
will look for ways to step up that assistance as the 
federalization initiative proceeds. 
HALE