US embassy cable - 02HARARE640

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000640 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PRETORIA FOR A/S KANSTEINER 
 
NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
AF FOR PDAS BELLAMY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/07 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: PRELIMINARY VOTING STATISTICS FAVOR 
MUGABE 
 
REF: HARARE 416 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POL TDY AARON TARVER, REASON:  1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  BASED ON OFFICIAL STATISTICS RELEASED 
THUS FAR (WHICH WE HAVE NO WAY TO VERIFY), WE EXPECT 
ZANU-PF TO CLAIM VICTORY IN THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTIONS.  TURNOUT TO DATE, EVEN IN AREAS WHERE VOTING 
HAS BEEN TRUNCATED, HAS EXCEEDED JUNE 2000 LEVELS IN ALL 
PROVINCES SAVE BULAWAYO.  NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS LESS 
THAN 60 PERCENT OF THOSE REGISTERED IN JANUARY TURNED UP 
TO VOTE, AND AS WE PREDICTED EARLIER, A LOWER TURNOUT 
FAVORS ZANU-PF.  VOTER INCREASES FROM THE 2000 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WERE HIGHEST IN ZANU-PF 
STRONGHOLDS IN MASHONALAND, LIKELY SUPPLEMENTED BY ZANU- 
PF'S LAST-MINUTE REGISTRATION CAMPAIGN.  HIGH TURNOUTS 
IN MANICALAND AND MASVINGO MAY PRESENT THE ONLY REAL 
WILD CARD.  SIX MONTHS OF CONTINUOUS VIOLENCE AND 
INTIMIDATION, COUPLED WITH THE DIFFICULTIES FACED BY 
URBAN VOTERS, ARE THE ONLY REASONABLE EXPLANATIONS FOR 
THE RELATIVELY LOW TURNOUT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
NUMBERS FAVOR MUGABE AND ZANU-PF 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) OFFICIAL VOTING STATISTICS RELEASED THUS FAR 
IMPLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE RULING ZANU-PF TO 
DECLARE VICTORY ONCE VOTING HAS CONCLUDED IN THE MARCH 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.  THE STATISTICS, BY PROVINCE, 
ARE AS FOLLOWS: 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00640  01 OF 02  111349Z 
PROVINCE              VOTES       VOTES CAST   PERCENTAGE 
                      IN 2000     IN 2002**    OF 2000 
 
BULAWAYO              171,669     169,000      98% 
HARARE*               394,073     415,000      105% 
MANICALAND            272,909     363,000      133% 
MASHONALAND CENTRAL   247,953     331,000      133% 
MASHONALAND EAST      278,221     328,000      118% 
MASHONALAND WEST      246,783     293,000      119% 
MASVINGO              286,741     380,000      133% 
MATEBELELAND NORTH    147,828     157,000      106% 
MATEBELELAND SOUTH    159,579     165,000      103% 
MIDLANDS              350,505     379,000      108% 
 
PROVINCE              VOTERS      VOTES CAST   PERCENTAGE 
                      REGISTERED  IN 2002** 
 
BULAWAYO              368,028     169,000      46% 
HARARE***             882,176     415,000      47% 
MANICALAND            658,694     363,000      55% 
MASHONALAND CENTRAL   480,092     331,000      69% 
MASHONALAND EAST      589,185     328,000      56% 
MASHONALAND WEST      572,677     293,000      51% 
MASVINGO              655,122     380,000      58% 
MATEBELELAND NORTH    338,188     157,000      46% 
MATEBELELAND SOUTH    343,993     165,000      48% 
MIDLANDS              724,659     379,000      52% 
 
*    INCLUDES CHITUNGWIZA. 
**   THROUGH MARCH 10 AT 5 P.M. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00640  01 OF 02  111349Z 
***  VOTING CONTINUES HAPHAZARDLY. 
 
3.  (C) WE PREDICTED THAT WITH A 60 PERCENT TURNOUT, MDC 
LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WOULD WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION, ALBEIT BY A NARROW MARGIN.  NUMBERS DO NOT 
QUITE REACH THAT PERCENTAGE LEVEL, HOWEVER.  CURRENT 
NUMBERS SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 53% OF REGISTERED VOTERS 
TURNED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH 5 P.M. ON MARCH 10. 
 
HIGHER PERCENTAGES IN ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS 
------------------------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) MORE IMPORTANTLY, FROM THESE NUMBERS, IT APPEARS 
THAT THE HIGHEST VOTER TURNOUTS OCCURRED IN TRADITIONAL 
ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS, THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES.  EACH 
PROVINCE HAD WELL OVER 50% OF ELIGIBLE VOTERS TURN OUT, 
FOR AN OVERALL VOTING TURNOUT AVERAGE OF 58% OF TOTAL 
REGISTERED VOTERS.  MOREOVER, THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES 
EXPERIENCED THE LARGEST INCREASE IN OVERALL VOTERS, 
APPROXIMATELY 179,000 VOTERS.  WE ATTRIBUTE THIS 
INCREASE TO ONE OR BOTH OF TWO FACTORS:  1) A SUCCESSFUL 
EFFORT BY ZANU-PF TO GET OUT LOYAL SUPPORTERS, AND 2) 
STUFFED BALLOT BOXES BY THE RULING PARTY IN THIS LARGELY 
NO-GO AREA FOR THE MDC. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1215 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00640  02 OF 02  111349Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00 
      EB-00    VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00 
      VCE-00   M-00     AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 
      PA-00    PC-01    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /009W 
                  ------------------7280AC  111349Z /38 
O 111257Z MAR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1173 
INFO OAU COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE 
NSC WASHDC 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000640 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PRETORIA FOR A/S KANSTEINER 
 
NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
AF FOR PDAS BELLAMY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/07 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: PRELIMINARY VOTING STATISTICS FAVOR 
MUGABE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00640  02 OF 02  111349Z 
TURNOUT IN MDC STRONGHOLDS LOWER THAN EXPECTED 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
5.  (C) THE MOST SURPRISING THING REFLECTED IN OFFICIAL 
STATISTICS IS THE LOWER-THAN-EXPECTED TURNOUT IN 
EXPECTED MDC STRONGHOLDS, ESPECIALLY IN BULAWAYO, THE 
ONLY PLACE WHERE VOTER TURNOUT IS LOWER THAN IN THE JUNE 
2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.  WE EXPECT THAT ONCE 
VOTING RECOMMENCES IN HARARE, THOSE NUMBERS WILL HEAVILY 
FAVOR THE MDC.  PRESENTLY, OVERALL VOTER TURNOUT IN MDC 
STRONGHOLDS IS AROUND 48.36%, WELL BELOW THAT PROJECTED. 
AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY, A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THIS 
DECLINE IS EXPLAINED BY THE GOZ DECISION TO PROVIDE A 
REDUCED NUMBER OF POLLING PLACES IN A COMPLEX DOUBLE AND 
TRIPLE-TIER ELECTION. 
 
MASVINGO AND MANICALAND ONLY WILDCARDS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) THE ONLY OTHER PROVINCES WITH MORE THAN 50 
PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT WAS IN MANICALAND AND MASVINGO, 
WHERE 55% AND 58%, RESPECTIVELY, OF THOSE REGISTERED 
TURNED OUT TO VOTE.  MANICALAND SPLITS APPROXIMATELY 60- 
40 FAVORING THE MDC OVER THE RULING ZANU-PF.  THE ZANU- 
PF CANNOT AT PRESENT LAY CLAIM TO ITS HISTORICAL 
STRONGHOLD IN MASVINGO HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WELL- 
PUBLICIZED DISPUTE BETWEEN ZANU-PF STRONGMAN EDDISON 
ZVOBGO AND PRESIDENT MUGABE.  WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS 
THAT ZVOBGO ENERGIZED HIS SUPPORTERS TO GET OUT AND 
VOTE, BUT FOR TSVANGIRAI INSTEAD OF MUGABE.  EVEN SO, 
ZVOBGO NEVER EXPECTED THE MDC TO DO MORE THAN SPLIT THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00640  02 OF 02  111349Z 
MASVINGO VOTE. 
 
COMMENT 
-------- 
 
7.  (C) IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT A WINNER, AS 
VOTING CONTINUES IN HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA.  IT IS ALSO 
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THESE NUMBERS ARE BASED ON 
OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT FIGURES, WHICH MAY DIFFER VASTLY 
FROM THE REAL VOTER TURNOUT.  THE GOVERNMENT, THROUGH 
THESE STATISTICAL RELEASES AND INFORMATION MINISTER 
JONATHAN MOYO'S ANALYSES ON RADIO, HAS SOUGHT TO BUILD 
EXPECTATIONS FOR A LARGE RURAL AND SMALL URBAN TURNOUT. 
OUR TEAMS NOTICED MASSIVE VOTER TURNOUTS IN MDC 
STRONGHOLDS ON MARCH 9, WHICH RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE 
RELIABILITY OF THE GOZ DATA.  NEVERTHELESS, SHOULD THE 
DATA HOLD UP ON FURTHER REVIEW, IT APPEARS THAT THE 
GOZ'S 6 MONTH CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, 
COUPLED WITH THE CALCULATED CONFUSION WROUGHT BY 
DECREASING URBAN POLLING STATIONS, INCREASING RURAL 
STATIONS, AND CONFLICTING INFORMATION ABOUT THE VOTER 
ROLLS, HAS PROVEN SUCCESSFUL. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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