US embassy cable - 05STATE15400

S E C R E T STATE 015400 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2015 
TAGS: IZ, MARR, MOPS, PREL, UNSC 
SUBJECT: FUTURE OF IRAQ COALITION 
 
Classified By: PM Acting A/S Rose M. Likins.  Reasons 1.4 (B) - (D) 
 
1. (U) This is an action request.  See paragraph 5. 
 
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BACKGROUND 
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2. (S) Status of the coalition:  Many MNF partners are 
considering troop reductions or withdrawals after Iraq,s 
January elections.  Others have mandates that will expire 
this summer and will be more difficult to renew than in the 
past.  The departures and downsizing we currently expect will 
increase the pressure on other governments to follow suit 
before the MNF's mandate under UNSCR 1546 expires, i.e., upon 
the completion of Iraq's political transition.  As that 
political process continues throughout 2005, the presence of 
coalition forces will remain an issue in Iraqi political 
debate. 
 
3. (S) MNF-I is currently reviewing its strategy in Iraq, and 
some Coalition partners may be led to believe this will have 
an early effect on force levels.  This is not likely to be 
the case in the short term.   MNF-I is currently considering 
shifting some emphasis after the January 30 elections to 
training and increasing the capacity of Iraqi Security Forces 
(ISF) by embedding military and police trainers in ISF units. 
 We do NOT/NOT expect near-term operational implications 
either for U.S. force levels or for the security missions of 
our Coalition partners.  However, some discussion of this 
potential strategy has appeared in the press and been 
discussed in military channels over the last few weeks. 
Therefore, we wish to immediately engage with coalition 
partners to: (1) avoid coalition capitals hearing about draft 
military plans through media or strictly military channels; 
(2) assure our coalition partners that there will be no 
dramatic shifts in MNF-I military commitments after the 
January elections; (3) inform our coalition partners of the 
possibility of strategy adaptation; (4) bring our partners, 
political leadership into the decision-making process as the 
employment of MNF-I forces is being discussed; and (5) 
encourage a continued coalition presence in Iraq after the 30 
January election and through the conclusion of Iraqs 
political transition. 
 
4. (S) Department understands that this presentation may 
provoke questions from host governments.  As answers are 
developed, we will endeavor to share them with you and with 
host governments.  Finally, it will be important that 
discussion of possible changes occur discreetly in official 
channels and not in the press. 
 
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ACTION REQUEST 
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5. (S/REL MNF-I) Posts should approach host government 
officials at appropriate levels and deliver talking points. 
 
BEGIN TALKING POINTS: 
 
- Thank you for your steadfast support to coalition 
operations in Iraq.  Your partnership is directly 
contributing to the security, prosperity, and democratic 
future of the Iraqi people. 
 
- The international coalition of forces in Iraq continues to 
stand as a symbol to all Iraqis and all terrorists that the 
world stands behind those who promote peace and freedom. 
 
- The Coalition will continue to play a critical role in Iraq 
after the January elections. 
 
- Multinational Force-Iraq (MNF-I) leadership is currently 
reviewing its strategy for the spring and summer of 2005. 
 
- Current MNF-I needs for forces and equipment will continue. 
 
- While planning is still in the formative stages, military 
planners, in close coordination with the Iraqi government, 
are exploring increasing efforts to rapidly enhance Iraqi 
Security Force capacity.  The goal is better-trained Iraqi 
forces capable of assuming increased responsibilities for 
Iraq,s internal security by the end of the UNSCR 1546 
mandate. 
 
- This is consistent with our strategy to, as soon as 
practical, turn over security of Iraq to the Iraqis 
themselves. 
 
- (If asked) NATO Training Mission Iraq (NTM-I) will continue 
as a separate but complementary effort to assist in the 
training of Iraqi Security Forces and support Iraqi security 
institutions. 
 
- Current force sizes and missions are critical to successful 
elections at the end of this month.  Shortly thereafter, 
tentatively February 22 - 23, MNF-I will host a 
contributors, conference, in Bucharest. 
 
- At that conference, military planners will discuss the 
proposed strategy, timeframes, and associated force 
composition. 
 
- An assessment team that just returned from Iraq is, among 
its other duties, looking at the new MNF-I concept.  As these 
concepts are elaborated, we will continue to consult with you 
in political and military channels. 
 
- We believe our fellow force contributors need to know that 
planning is ongoing so that we can work together to make a 
successful transition.  As always, we rely upon your utmost 
discretion. 
 
- It may be useful, when more specifics of the plan are 
available, for us to discuss in both policy and military 
channels what type of adjustments might be feasible for your 
forces within the new MNF-I concept and consistent with your 
national policies. 
 
- Thank you again for your continued partnership as we work 
to achieve our mutual goals of stability and democracy for 
the people of Iraq. 
 
6.  (U) End Points. Please slug messages to State for 
PM/RSAT, PM/PMAT, and EUR. 
 
7. Minimize considered. 
POWELL