US embassy cable - 05ANKARA427

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000427 
 
SIPDIS 
 
ISTANBUL PLS PASS ADANA 
 
E.O.12958: DECL: 01/26/2015 
TAGS: PREL, TU, CY 
SUBJECT: TURKISH MFA ON CYPRUS 
 
REFS: A. 2004 ANKARA 6845 
 
      B. 2004 ANKARA 6887 
      C. MOSCOW 0642 
 
(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter, E.O. 
12958, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Turkish MFA Northeastern Mediterranean 
Affairs acting DDG Bilman is confident Turkey will sign the 
Ankara Agreement extension protocol this summer, but in the 
face of domestic criticism about the lack of measures to help 
Turkish Cypriots, the MFA is not inclined to propose 
unilateral Turkish concessions.  The MFA is considering 
proposing a package of mutual confidence-building measures, 
but the Turkish bureaucracy has yet to agree on its contents. 
 Despite Putin's promises of Russian support on Cyprus to PM 
Erdogan, the Turks have seen no change in Russian behavior. 
End Summary. 
 
MFA Not Inclined to Propose Unilateral Turkish Moves 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
2.  (C) Bilman said he had been "bashed" at a January 25 
interagency meeting on Cyprus attended by the MFA and "other 
institutions" (meaning the military).  Bilman did not 
enumerate the specific criticisms, but in the recent past has 
told us the consistent sore point is lack of measures for 
Turkish Cypriots.  Given this situation, the MFA feels it is 
in no position to propose unilateral Turkish concessions to 
the AK government and the rest of the bureaucracy.  Bilman 
predicted Papadopoulos would simply pocket any such 
concessions, give nothing, and demand more. 
 
3.  (C) Bilman remains confident Turkey will sign the Ankara 
Agreement extension protocol, probably this summer. 
 
4.  (C) Bilman professed to have no information about the 
proposed February visit to Turkey by the Greek Cypriot DISY 
party.  He did not know whether DISY President Anastassiades 
would come or whom he would see.  Bilman confessed the MFA 
had no visibility inside PM Erdogan's office, saying the MFA 
is not in a position to ask about the PM's appointments. 
 
Mutual CBMs Proposal Possible, But No Agreement on Content 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
5.  (C) Bilman argued that the Greek Cypriots should be the 
ones to make concessions, since the Turks and Turkish 
Cypriots did everything the UN asked.  However, he conceded 
the reality that the impact of this will fade over time, and 
that international (especially EU) perceptions of continued 
Turkish political will to reach a settlement are important, 
but said many in the Turkish establishment do not understand 
this. 
 
6.  (C) Asked about the possibility of Turkey proposing a 
package of confidence-building measures (CBMs) involving 
concessions by both sides, Bilman agrees this is feasible and 
claimed the MFA is considering it.  The problem is there is 
no agreement about what measures Turkey should propose for 
either side.  With a laugh, Bilman said that after Land 
Forces Commander Buyukanit's January 25 statement that there 
will be no troop pullouts absent an overall settlement, troop 
reduction is probably off the table as a CBM. 
 
Turks See No Change in Russian Behavior On Cyprus 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
7.  (C) According to Bilman, neither the Turkish Embassy in 
Moscow nor the Turkish UN Mission has yet seen any change in 
Russian behavior on Cyprus, despite Putin's promises to 
Erdogan during Putin's December visit to Ankara (refs A and 
B) and Erdogan's January visit to Moscow (ref C).  Bilman 
claimed the MFA had information that Putin indeed called 
UNSYG Annan twice after his December Ankara visit, but only 
discussed generalities.  When UNSYG Annan raised the Good 
Offices Mission Report, Putin reportedly dodged by saying 
Russia would have to see the proposed text of any related 
UNSCR before taking a position. 
EDELMAN