US embassy cable - 05AMMAN672

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000672 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2015 
TAGS: ASEC, KDEM, PGOV, PREL, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: IRAQ ELECTION UPDATE: JORDAN 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 586 
 
     B. AMMAN 468 
     C. AMMAN 342 
     D. AMMAN 293 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (SBU) Out-of-country (OCV) registration concluded January 
25 with 20,166 Iraqis signing up to vote in Jordan.  Turnout, 
though very light, gradually increased during the 
registration period from a low of 710 on the first day, to a 
peak of 3679 on January 23.  The International Organization 
for Migration (IOM) reported no major problems affecting 
registration and it anticipates procedurally smooth 
elections.  The head of the International Mission for the 
Iraq Elections (IMIE) office in Jordan confirmed that the 
IMIE Steering Committee will meet in Amman beginning on or 
about January 28 to discuss the elections and future plans 
for the organization.  With no election monitors of its own 
and only one consultant on the ground in Iraq, the IMIE will 
have to rely heavily on information from others and work to 
keep expectations for its mission "modest."  Limited 
political campaigning in Jordan has included large newspaper 
ads placed by IIG PM Allawi's Iraqi List coalition party. 
End Summary. 
 
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REGISTRATION FALLS SHORT OF THE MARK 
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2.  (SBU) OCV registration for Iraqis in Jordan, as well as 
in other participating countries, came to an end on January 
25 after a two-day extension.  According to IOM figures, 
20,166 Iraqis registered to vote in Jordan, with 280,303 
registering worldwide.  Turnout for the registration in 
Jordan, compared to estimates of up to 200,000 eligible Iraqi 
voters present here, remained low throughout the 9-day 
registration period for a number of reasons (refs C and D). 
However, according to contacts, positive word of mouth and 
stepped up advertising and outreach efforts helped to 
gradually increase the number of registrants from a low of 
710 on the first day (January 17) to a high of 3679 on the 
seventh day (January 23). 
 
3.  (SBU) The IOM office in Amman overseeing the OCV program 
reported no major problems with registration in Jordan or 
elsewhere.  It anticipates that the voting process on January 
28-30 should likewise proceed smoothly.  Given the relatively 
low number of registrants, the IOM expects that the voting 
centers and their staff in Jordan should easily be able to 
accommodate all registered Iraqis who come to cast a ballot. 
EmbOffs will monitor several centers during the elections and 
report septel. 
 
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MANAGING EXPECTATIONS FOR THE IMIE 
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4.  (SBU) Grant Kippen, head of the IMIE office in Jordan, 
told PolOff on January 26 that he was expecting 10 or more 
members of the IMIE Steering Committee to arrive in Amman 
shortly for a series of meetings beginning on or about 
January 28 until January 31.  Kippen said that the meetings 
would focus on the "status and development of election 
assessment reports," as well as the IMIE's future activities 
prior to the constitutional referendum in Iraq on October 30. 
 Despite initial hopes that it would be able to place several 
experienced international election consultants in Iraq (ref 
D), Kippen said the IMIE had succeeded in hiring and sending 
only one such consultant - Nora Kankashian - to Baghdad. 
According to Kippen, Kankashian has been very active in Iraq 
meeting with all major stakeholder groups. 
 
5.  (C) Kippen confirmed that the IMIE would not hire or 
deploy any of its own election monitors.  Consequently, in 
developing its "assessment framework," it would have to rely 
heavily on monitoring and reports by domestic Iraqi 
organizations, political parties, diplomatic missions, and 
other election observers.  Kippen acknowledged that the scope 
of the IMIE's proposed activities had been cut back for 
security and other reasons, and said that the IMIE would have 
to be careful to "maintain modest expectations" concerning 
its mandate. 
 
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CAMPAIGNING IN JORDAN 
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6.  (U) Limited political campaigning for the Iraqi elections 
has taken place in Jordan.  Several (mainly independent) 
candidates have been in Amman recently to promote themselves, 
while IIG PM Allawi's Iraqi List coalition party took out 
splashy, full-page advertisements in Jordanian newspapers. 
These ads, however, urged Iraqis to vote for the Iraqi List 
without providing any information on the party's program or 
candidates. 
 
MINIMIZE CONSIDERED 
HALE