US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK686

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000686 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/BCLTV, DRL, S/CT; USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, TH, Southern Thailand 
SUBJECT: THAILAND: DEEP SOUTH UPDATE - JANUARY 26, 2005 
 
REF: BANGKOK 485 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Clarke.  Reason:  1.4 (d) 
 
1. (C)  SUMMARY:  Violence continues in the far southern 
provinces of Thailand, in stark contrast to images of ongoing 
relief efforts in neighboring provinces.  With the tsunami 
garnering less attention the media, violence in the deep 
South is again re-emerging as a central domestic political 
issue.  In what appears to be an ill-advised move to augment 
a policy that is overly security-based, the RTG is 
considering deployment of a new infantry division to the 
South.  Current plans would greatly increase the number of 
troops in the region and provide for a separate chain of 
command, outside the existing 4th Army structure. The Muslim 
population in southern Thailand is likely to react poorly to 
more troops among them.  The government promise that more 
Islamic teachers will be arrested also could potentially 
backfire.  Recent hints by the Police that some politicians 
are behind the southern violence probably should be 
discounted in light of the upcoming February 6 elections. 
END SUMMARY 
 
DAILY INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE CONTINUE 
 
2.  (U)  As noted in reftel, violent attacks in the far south 
of Thailand have not diminished since the December 26, 2004 
tsunami.  The violence continues in the pattern witnessed 
 
SIPDIS 
during most of 2004, with shootings, bombings, and arson 
attacks occurring on an almost daily basis.  On January 24 a 
policeman in Narathiwat and a mail carrier in Yala were shot 
and killed by unknown assailants. 
 
GOVERNMENT CONSIDERING NEW FORCE FOR SOUTH 
 
3.  (SBU)  The RTG is seriously considering creation of a new 
"15th infantry division" to strengthen the combat capability 
of security forces in the three southernmost provinces.  The 
division, if approved, reportedly would have 12,000 troops. 
The unit would be led by an Army Major General who would 
report directly to Army central command in Bangkok (and not 
through the 4th Army Area Commander who is supposed to lead 
Army units in the South).  Prime Minister Thaksin said on 
January 25, after expectations had been raised of Cabinet 
approval that day, that the issue was still under 
consideration. 
 
GOVERNMENT SAYS MORE ISLAMIC TEACHERS WILL BE ARRESTED 
 
4.  (U)  Justice Minister Pongthep Thepkanjana announced on 
January 25 that the RTG has issued warrants for 21 Islamic 
religious teachers, or "ustaz".  Eight ustaz have already 
been arrested in the past month, and the government has 
claimed that they are providing credible information to 
investigators. 
 
5.  (U)  Separately, Sombat Amornvivat, the Director-General 
of the Department of Special Investigation (DSI), claimed on 
January 24 that the DSI had evidence linking certain 
(unnamed) "politicians" to ongoing southern violence.  Sombat 
said the evidence was not yet substantial enough to issue 
warrants, but that the investigation would continue.  He also 
noted that the arrests of politicians now could adversely 
affect the election, scheduled for February 6. 
 
COMMENT 
 
6.  (C)  COMMENT:  The unabated violence in southern Thailand 
has not won the militants any sympathy from a country still 
reeling from the tsunami.  The Thai press has correctly 
heaped scorn on "heartless" militants who continue attacks 
while fellow Muslims in neighboring provinces are still 
suffering from the disaster.  But the RTG's consideration of 
a new Army division is not a hopeful sign for the region. 
While the security situation continues to deteriorate in the 
south it is not clear how adding more troops (and another 
cumbersome, confusing layer) to the already disjointed 
southern security structure will lessen the violence.  If 
anything the presence of more security forces in the South 
will likely exacerbate already high levels of local 
resentment against the Thai military and Police, which has 
only increased following the events at Tak Bai in October, 
2004. 
 
7.  (C)  COMMENT CONTINUED:  The focus on Islamic teachers 
may be yielding information, but it is an approach that 
resonates badly with the local Muslim population in the deep 
South.  The announcement that "politicians" are behind some 
of the violence in the South is probably an allusion to 
long-standing rumors in the south that members of the 
"Vaddah" (Unity) faction of Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) 
party are using the violence for their own political ends. 
These rumors have never been substantiated and this public 
announcement needs to be considered in the context of the 
upcoming general election on February 6.  END COMMENT 
BOYCE