US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK685

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000685 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/BCLTV; US PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, TH, Elections - Thai 
SUBJECT: NORTHEAST THAILAND: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION 
CAMPAIGN OVERVIEW 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Poloffs recently (December 13-15, 2004) 
traveled to the Northeastern Provinces of Nakhon Raatchasima 
(Korat) and Chaiyaphum to visit with local politicians, 
provincial election commission officials and NGO and academic 
representatives.  Pre-election campaigning and government 
preparations for the first general election in four years 
were already in full swing.  The outcome in this region is 
not in doubt: the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party will win a 
majority of the votes and parliamentary seats; but the new 
guy on the block, the Mahachon Party, may make some inroads 
in the TRT Northeast stronghold.  TRT promises of free 
quality healthcare and education for all have created an 
echoing chorus of populist campaign pledges from all the 
political parties.  This visit yielded insights into the 
persistence of vote buying and intimidation as a campaign 
techniques.  Poloffs also found that interest in democratic 
elections and reform persists.  Worsening drought and 
personal debt came high on the list of problems listed by 
citizens. END SUMMARY. 
 
NORTHEAST MPs IN CAMPAIGN MODE 
 
2. (U) Driving three hours north of Bangkok on a cool, late 
December afternoon, Poloffs and one Pol FSN arrived at the 
provincial capital of Nakhon Ratchasima (known locally as 
Korat) to find this city of over 200,000 replete with 
campaign posters from the Thai Rak Thai (TRT), Democrat (DP), 
Mahachon and Chart Thai (CT) parties prominently displayed 
throughout the town and outlying areas.  Particularly 
noticeable was a series of four full color posters from all 
the key parties promising free education through 12th grade 
and free &quality8 healthcare for all.  Others in the 
series promised a social welfare system for all Thais over 60 
years old and jobs for anyone with a college degree 
(guaranteed!); all the posters feature color photographs of 
smiling Thai citizens prospering under these benevolent 
policies.  TRT posters prominently displayed the picture of 
PM Thaksin posing with local MP candidates and proclaiming, 
(loosely translated) &In four years we fixed it, in four 
more years we will build it up even more.8  Mahachon and 
Chart Thai had populist themed posters similar to the 
Democrats, but generally less prominently displayed. 
 
MAHACHON MAKING THEIR MARK? 
 
3. (SBU)  MP Somsak Phankasem, the former Chart Pattana MP 
from Korat, noted to poloffs that campaigning as a TRT party 
member (Note: CP merged with TRT in August of this year) is a 
challenge in that part of Northeast Thailand as the CP party 
is more popular than TRT.  He complained that TRT party 
leaders have not provided him with enough of a budget to run 
his campaign, but conceded that his election still won,t be 
much of a race.  He predicted that he will win handily on the 
strength of his personal popularity with the people (he won 
by over 50,000 votes in the last election). 
 
4. (SBU)  After Bangkok (37 seats), Korat, with 16 seats, has 
more parliamentary constituencies at stake than any other 
area in Thailand.  Somsak stated that TRT has set a goal of 
winning all of Korat,s 16 seats, but that it is likely that 
four will go to the Mahachon party.  Somsak noted that his 
close political ally, Sanan Kajaornprasart, now a Mahachon 
party adviser, had invited him to join Mahachon, but he 
decided to stay with the mainstream CP and work with TRT. 
Somsak predicted that Mahachon will become a sort of &spare 
party8 for TRT once the election is over.  If TRT finds it 
useful to do so, they may let Mahachon into a coalition 
government, depending on how many seats TRT wins nationally 
(i.e. how comfortable Thaksin is with his coalition's margin). 
 
5. (SBU) Senator Boonton Dockthaisong proffered a more 
pessimistic view of the on-going election process.  Now 75 
years old and one of 8 senators from Korat, the former local 
political rival to ex-Prime Minister Chatchai Choonhavan 
lamented the continuing increase in corruption among Thai 
bureaucrats and politicians, many of whom are his former 
graduate students at the nearby National Institute for 
Development Administration (NIDA).  He noted that many speak 
about democracy on the outside, but inside all they think 
about is money.  Even worse, many who are now provincial or 
district level officials get involved in mafia-type violence 
over personal disputes turned political.  Noting that 
widespread vote buying has become commonplace, he claimed to 
have said directly to fellow Korat Senator  Kraisak 
Choonhavan (a leading human rights champion and the son of 
Boonton's deceased political rival): &I,ve never seen you 
on the campaign trail once, but you get elected so easily. 
How does this happen?8 
ELECTION COMMISSION OFFICIALS PREPARED BUT VOTE BUYING BEGINS 
 
6. (SBU) In discussions with Provincial Election Committees 
(EC) in both Korat and Chaiyaphum, local officials expressed 
confidence that they could ensure a safe and well organized 
election.  Each province has a four-member committee composed 
of mostly of retired RTG officials and usually one member of 
the local business community.  Members are appointed for 
four-year terms and in turn appoint local election committees 
for each constituency.  The election officials did express 
concerns about how they will have to handle complaints of 
fraud or violations of the election commission rules.  They 
also admitted that pre-election vote buying is rampant, but 
noted that under the rules this phenomena technically is not 
illegal until the official campaign has been announced. 
Candidates were allowed during the pre-election period to put 
up posters and campaign door to door to solicit votes. 
(Note:  The official campaign began on January 6, 2005. End 
Note.) 
 
6.  (U)  Both election committees also complained generally 
of unclear direction from the main EC office in Bangkok. 
They explained that once complaints on electoral violations 
are submitted to the Provincial offices, and after being 
verified by the local committee, they are forwarded to 
Bangkok EC officials who conduct an investigation.  On a 
positive note, the commissioners thought that the &quality8 
of candidates has improved from four years ago and that 
egregious election violations will be minimal as the 
political parties are afraid of receiving a &red card8 or 
&yellow card8 for violations. (Note:  A "red card" given to 
a winning or leading candidate eliminates them from the race 
and rerun elections.  A "yellow card" against a winning or 
leading candidate paves the way for a rerun, but allows that 
candidate to participate as the evidence of wrongdoing is not 
sufficiently strong.  End Note.) 
 
HOW ABOUT A FREE TRIP TO CHIANG MAI? 
 
7. (U) NGO monitors were already in force monitoring 
candidates and voters until Election Day.  Poloffs met with 
Somkiat Phongphaibun, a teacher at Korat Teacher,s College 
(Nakon Ratchasima Rajabhat Institute), who works with Forum 
of the Poor, a Northeastern farmers group.  He stated that 
over 50 NGOs had met in early December to organize citizen 
groups and inform them about the election process and to 
organize opposition to TRT,s effort to win 400 seats in 
Parliament.  Somkiat said that, in the previous week alone, 
over 160 cases of pre-election vote buying had been reported 
to some of the groups in his NGO network.  The worst areas 
for vote buying, they reported, typically have been in 
Buriram, Khon Kaen, Nongkhai, and Korat provinces. (Note: The 
Northeast has been the area with most notorious reputation in 
Thailand for vote buying in past elections.  End Note.) 
 
8.  (U) Somkiat explained some of the techniques parties used 
to gain votes.  Generally, the parties select 3 canvassers 
per village.  Each canvasser receives 1,000 baht and a mobile 
phone.  A list with the registered voters is then divided 
among the three canvassers, who try to line up voters.  Some 
use outright cash payments to buy votes.  Others strong-arm 
voters by confiscating their Thai ID card, making photocopies 
of the cards and tell them intimidatingly that their names 
are being kept on a list.  Some canvassers or party 
operatives also organize free trips by bus to Chiang Mai or 
to a popular theme park near Bangkok called Safari World.  In 
exchange, voters support the candidate who pays for the trip. 
 As noted by the EC, Somkiat reiterated that this activity in 
the pre-election period technically is not illegal. 
 
SOCIAL ISSUES:  DROUGHT, HEALTH CARE, DEBT AND LOSING THE 
YOUTH 
 
9. (U) Harvest time in Northeast Thailand usually is a time 
when laborers can be seen working hard in the fields and 
trucks loaded with rice, corn, sugarcane and cassava fill the 
highways.  This year, over 2.5 million rai (1 million acres) 
of mostly rain-fed rice have been affected by a shortened 
rainy season and persistent drought conditions for the last 
four to five years.  In Chaiyaphum, only about 100,000 rai 
(40,000 acres) have been affected.  The government has 
responded with emergency drought relief.  But Poloffs were 
told that the government was only recently distributed relief 
from last year's drought.  An even larger budget for this 
year has been proposed but not yet received by provincial 
authorities.  (Note: Somkiat of Forum of the Poor noted that 
often these drought relief funds are used by candidates for 
vote buying, with either straightforward cash payments or 
in-kind goods inducements such as rice, clothes or household 
items.  End Note.)  The drought issue appears to be more of a 
concern to voters and officials in Korat than Chaiyaphum, 
where it has become more of a fact of life. 
 
10. (U) Poloffs asked about the 30-baht healthcare insurance 
program, a pillar in the TRT election platform four years 
ago, which still appears to be popular with people in general 
in the Northeast.  However some observers said that the 
30-baht appeared to be having serious consequences for the 
public health sector while providing only limited real 
benefits to the health of Thai citizens.  One contact related 
how two surgeons at the Provincial hospital in Korat recently 
resigned their government positions due to the increased 
workload at the hospital.  Centrally located provincial 
hospitals seem to be the worst effected by increased 
workload.  Patients have learned to go directly to them. 
Smaller district hospitals have fewer and fewer patients 
because they tend to refrain from referring patients to the 
larger provincial hospitals under the new system, which bills 
them back for costs of treatment of referred cases. 
Meanwhile, however, local private clinics are doing well as 
they charge only 60 to 100 baht for simple procedures and 
don't require a long wait or lots of paperwork. 
 
11. (U) Poloffs learned from interviews that personal debt 
from an increasing ability of individuals to purchase 
consumer items such as motorcycles and small household 
electric appliances on credit is a major concern for 
villagers.  The Government Agricultural Bank is the main 
source of "easy" credit for Thai villagers, but they often 
are forced to rely on local loan sharks to make payments and 
consequently sink deeper into debt.  Many of the political 
slogans Poloffs observed calling for a debt moratorium are 
aimed at this concern. 
 
12. (U) The 2003 war on drugs remains fresh in the memories 
of all who poloffs spoke with.  The MPs opined that popular 
support for the crackdown, which the Embassy estimates may 
have led to approximately 1,300 extra-judicial killings 
nationwide, remains high.  This support stems from reaction 
against the social ills created by increased drug use and 
dealing by Thai youth and their being drawn into subsequent 
crimes.  One interlocutor claimed that villages had 
understood in 2003 that the loss in each village of two youth 
in the government's campaign against drugs might be necessary 
to wipe out the problem.  Somkiat of Forum of the Poor, 
offering a sobering view from the other side, related a story 
about the son of a Thai language daily newspaper reporter in 
Korat who reportedly was kidnapped by plain-clothes police 
and was being held on drug charges.  He also told of how a 
well-known principal of a Korat school posted bail for a 
young cousin of his and went into hiding for fear of being 
arrested himself on drug charges and cooperation with drug 
gangs. 
 
13. (U)  COMMENT:  Politicians, activists, teachers and the 
public all seem to summarize their conclusions in the 
pre-election environment in the same way.  They say Thaksin 
and TRT will win the election, hedging their bets (in some 
cases literally) only on by how many seats.  A frequent 
refrain heard also surmises that vote buying is ever-present, 
the novelty found only in how it's done in order to sneak by 
the Election Commission.  Yet in the midst of this, there is 
a spirit of volunteerism and genuine interest in the 
democratic process found in weary local officials, in 
students gearing up to help count votes, and in the 
persistent calls for reform from NGOs and opposition 
candidates.  END COMMENT. 
BOYCE