US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK673

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000673 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA HUSO. 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TH, Thai Prime Minister, TRT - Thai Rak Thai, Elections - Thai 
SUBJECT: THAILAND REFOCUSES ON NATIONAL ELECTION 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Clarke.  Reason:  1.4 (d) 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  Thailand continues its relief and 
reconstruction efforts in the wake of last month's tsunami, 
but the nation is also focusing on the approaching February 6 
national elections.  Almost 45 million Thais are expected to 
go to the polls.  All 500 hundred parliamentary seats (400 
constituencies and 100 party list seats) -- and control of 
the next government -- are at stake.   As noted in earlier 
reporting, virtually all the money is on a significant 
re-election victory for Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and 
his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party.  Presiding over an expanding 
economy and enjoying a spurt in public approval because of 
his strong role in directing the country's tsunami relief 
campaign, Thaksin eclipses his lackluster chief rival, 
Democrat Party (DP) leader Banyat Bantadtan.  Many observers 
here believe that the TRT might win up to 322 parliamentary 
seats, with the DP projected to win about 112.  Under this 
projection, the Chart Thai (CT) and the Mahachon might pick 
up 44 and 21 seats respectively.  The remaining seat is 
tipped for the New Aspiration Party (one holdout member who 
did not join TRT).  Presumably, the Chat Thai and/or Mahachon 
parties would be available to join the TRT in a stronger 
coalition, although TRT could form a government on its own 
with 322 seats.  (The CT was in coalition with the Thaksin's 
first government, and Mahachon has also made it quite clear 
that their bloc would go anywhere their interests could be 
satisfied).    End Summary. 
 
IN THE WAKE OF TSUNAMI TRAGEDY THAILAND TURNS TO A NATIONAL 
ELECTION 
 
2.  (U)  On February 6, some six weeks after the devastating 
tsunami that killed thousands of Thais and foreign tourists 
 
SIPDIS 
and caused billions in damage, Thais will vote for a new 
government.  Almost 45 million Thais are expected to cast 
ballots for all 400 constituency seats and 100 party list 
seats in Parliament.  Thaksin is being tipped by virtually 
all observers here as the winner by a decisive margin. 
 
THAKSIN RIDING A WAVE OF POPULARITY 
 
3.  (SBU)  Thaksin has had some setbacks over the past year 
-- including accusations his government initially tried to 
cover-up the avian flu outbreak (and might be continuing to 
downplay it), and failed to stem increasing violence in the 
south and rising fuel prices. Nevertheless, he appears to be 
still viewed favorably by most Thais as a decisive leader who 
has brought Thailand back from the throes of the 1997 
economic collapse.  His populist policies, such as the 30 
baht medical plan, the village development fund and debt 
moratorium, have proven to be tremendously successful with 
the vast majority of the public.  Thaksin's opponents are now 
imitating him and offering their own programs.  The DP has 
switched from charging that TRT is bankrupting the country to 
coming up with its own public entitlement plans.  When 
poloffs recently visited the northeastern Thailand, they 
noted a plethora of DP, CT and Mahachon posters promising 
voters free education, free medical care and monthly 
government payments to elderly Thais. 
 
4.  (SBU)  Despite extensive international criticism over his 
heavy-handed methods in dealing with Muslim separatists in 
Thailand's deep south and his 2003 bloody war on drugs, the 
Prime Minister's style has in general been supported by the 
Thai public.  In the case of southern violence, general 
(non-Muslim) Thai attitudes in other regions of the country 
range from support for a crackdown to indifference.  Thaksin 
has been a consummate master of public relations at home and 
very successfully played up his image as a player on the 
international stage.  His refusal to accept direct 
international financial assistance in the wake of last 
month's Tsunami played well to Thai nationalist sentiments. 
Thaksin's televised and flag-draped announcement that 
Thailand had paid off its IMF loans two years early was 
another example of his ability to appeal to the public's 
sense of patriotism.  Even Thaksin's "unscripted" outbursts 
to unwelcome press questions have been perceived by many 
voters as proof that he is unafraid to share his unvarnished 
opinions. 
 
DEMOCRAT PARTY IN THE DOLDRUMS 
 
5.  (C)  In contrast, the DP has thus far failed to catalyze 
public excitement for its leadership or policies.  While 
"Thaksinomics" has been credited with a rapidly growing 
economy and rising expectations, the DP under lackluster 
leader Banyat Bantadtan spent the past three and a half years 
mourning that Thailand's future is being mortgaged to 
subsidize the government's populist programs -- before 
proposing similar programs of its own.  The Democrats are 
still perceived by many Thai voters as having mortgaged the 
country to the IMF and other foreigners in the wake of the 
1997-98 crisis.  In contrast, the image of Thaksin is that he 
was able to take back control of Thailand's destiny while 
growing the economy.  Banyat replaced Chuan Leekpai as Party 
Leader in a bitter contest with younger and more dynamic 
Deputy Leader Abhiset Vejjajiva in 2002, thereby ending any 
chance of a DP candidate who might have competed with Thaksin 
on charisma.  DP observers are fond of saying that Abhiset is 
biding his time, angling to replace Banyat after the DP is 
defeated next month, which indicates their low expectations 
for the 2005 elections.  But Abhiset in fact has had no other 
choice since Banyat outmaneuvered him in 2002 among the DP 
apparatchiks. 
 
HOW DO THE NUMBERS LOOK? 
 
6.  (SBU)  Recent polls suggest that even looking to Abhiset 
in the next elections would be a long stretch for the 
opposition.  Over the January 22-23 weekend, various 
newspaper and polling organizations came up with numbers 
indicating that TRT would take 254 of the 400 constituency 
seats to the DP's 85, CT's 39, and Mahachon's 21.  The polls 
also report that the TRT will take 24 of Bangkok's 37 seats 
while DP will garner 12 and the CT 1.  Combined with party 
list seats (100 national, non-constituency seats awarded 
proportionately to those parties who pick up five percent or 
more of the countrywide vote) TRT is predicted to grab an 
overall 322 seats to the DP's 112, CT's 44, Mahachon's 21 and 
NAP's 1..  Barnharn Silpa-archa's Chart Thai will get its 
best results in Northeast and Central Thailand.  CT has been 
a TRT coalition partner and is expected to be invited to join 
a new TRT government. 
 
7.  (SBU)  The Mahachon party is a bit more of a question 
mark.  Headed by Anek Laothamathat and disgruntled DP 
ex-Secretary General Sanan Kachornprasart, this party was 
only formed in mid-2003 and its ideology is suspect.  Anek 
and Sanan declare that they represent the "third way," a true 
alternative to the TRT and DP.  Cynics predict that its 
decision on whether to join the government or the opposition 
will be based on who offers the highest bid for its 
affections.  The party has been campaigning aggressively and 
will likely perform best in Northeast Thailand. 
 
8.  (SBU)  Regionally, TRT is widely expected to dominate 
everywhere but in the South.  In the North, Thaksin's home 
region, pollsters give the TRT 59 of 76 seats.  In the vote 
rich but economically lagging Northeast, Thaksin's medical 
care and loan programs could help his party win 98 of 136 
seats.  In the Bangkok Metropolitan area and in Central 
Thailand, the TRT has been tipped to win 24 out of 37 and 63 
out of 97 seats respectively.  Only in the South, much of it 
a traditional DP stronghold, does TRT come out worse than its 
DP rival.  This week's polls suggest that the DP could take 
44 of 54 seats in the region. 
 
9.  (SBU)  Complicating the situation of Thaksin in the South 
are the legal travails of the man he appointed to lead the 
TRT offensive in the region.  Earlier this month DP MP Nipit 
Intarasombat accused Deputy Agriculture Minister Newin 
Chidchob -- who is heading up the TRT electoral campaign in 
the South -- of flatly offering money for votes.  Nipit 
submitted an alleged tape recording of Newin making his offer 
as evidence.  Feigning to be stung by the allegation, Newin 
struck back by suing Nipit for libel and accusing him of 
falsifying the tape.  Newin may have a hard time protesting 
his innocence as many remember that there were allegations of 
vote buying against him in the 1995 elections when he was 
with the Chart Thai Party -- he was kept on because of his 
value as a fund-raiser and faction leader.  As is typical in 
Thai elections, the mud is flying in other directions too. A 
Senator from Sing Buri province announced that he had 
received complaints from some voters that CT leader and 
former PM Barnharn Silpa-archa, while campaigning for a CT 
candidate, made possibly illegal money-for votes promises. 
Both Newin and Barnharn are under threat of being "red 
carded" (i.e. disqualified from the elections) by the 
National Election Commission, but this outcome seems unlikely 
at the moment. 
 
10.  (SBU)  Comment:  This election is being bitterly fought 
at the local level, with reports of canvassers being 
threatened and killed (septel).  But on the national level, 
most informed observers are predicting a significant TRT 
victory, with their debates limited largely to the degree of 
Thaksin's win.  Though he suffered several stumbles last year 
on the avian flu and southern security, Thaksin has largely 
emerged with his popularity intact, and even enhanced.  The 
economy is still growing at an impressive clip.  Thaksin's 
quick, high visibility response to last month's tsunami 
disaster, in which he was highlighted in the media on a daily 
basis comforting distressed villagers, delegating 
responsibility and setting deadlines, has buttressed his 
reputation as a decisive leader.  The Thai people feel that 
their lot is getting better and they perceive Thaksin 
Shinawatra as the source of the largesse they enjoy.  Thai 
voters are expected to give him a significant mandate for 
another term as Prime Minister. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BOYCE