US embassy cable - 02HARARE620

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 000620 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF, PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR AF/S 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
 
CAPETOWN PLEASE PASS A/S KANSTEINER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/03 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00620  01 OF 05  081222Z 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: OUR TAKE ON ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORTS 
         IN ZIMBABWE 
 
REF: A) HARARE 377 
 
     B) HARARE 410 
     C) HARARE 611 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  THE GOZ HAS TO A LARGE DEGREE 
SUCCEEDED IN ITS EFFORTS TO KEEP PRYING OUTSIDE EYES 
AWAY FROM THE PRE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN FIELD AND, IT NOW 
APPEARS, OUT OF THE POLLING STATIONS ON VOTING DAY.  BY 
DERAILING THE EFFORTS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION MISSION AND 
THE ZIMBABWE ELECTIONS SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN) DOMESTIC 
OBSERVERS, THE GOZ HAS ASSURED SPOTTY COVERAGE BUT HAS 
ALSO, INADVERTENTLY OR NOT, STRIPPED ITSELF OF ANY FIG 
LEAF AGAINST POST-ELECTION CHARGES THAT THE ELECTION WAS 
NOT PROPERLY OBSERVED.  THOSE OBSERVERS OUT IN THE 
FIELD, AS OPPOSED TO HARARE'S LUXURY HOTELS, RANGE FROM 
CRITICS TO OBJECTIVISTS TO APOLOGISTS.  A NUMBER OF SADC 
BILATERAL DELEGATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN THEIR PRO-ZANU- 
PF COLORS, AND THE FINAL STANCES OF LARGER AFRICAN 
GROUPS SUCH AS NIGERIA AND SOUTH AFRICA REMAIN 
UNCERTAIN. 
 
2.  (C) THE EMBASSY'S OWN MODEST IN-HOUSE EFFORT HAS 
BEEN AS OBJECTIVE AS POSSIBLE IN COVERAGE.  WE EXPECT 
THAT ALL OF THE CREDIBLE REPORTS THAT EMERGE IN THE WAKE 
OF THE ELECTIONS WILL ADEQUATELY DOCUMENT INSTANCES OF 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00620  01 OF 05  081222Z 
INTIMIDATION, VIOLENCE, AND ELECTORAL CHICANERY.  THE 
STATEMENT BY THE USG ON THE OUTCOME WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY 
SUPPORTED BY FACT THAT WE CAN FEEL CONFIDENT THAT OUR 
STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UNDERCUT BY WHITEWASHING OR LACK 
OF DETAIL IN REPORTS FROM OTHER, LESS RELIABLE 
DELEGATIONS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
THE EARLY CASUALTIES 
-------------------- 
3.  (C) THE GOZ HAS PURSUED A DUAL STRATEGY OF BLOCKAGE 
AND "DIVIDE AND CONQUER" IN ITS EFFORTS TO KEEP 
POTENTIALLY UNSYMPATHETIC ELECTION OBSERVATION MISSIONS 
OUT OF THE FRAY.  THE FIRST CASUALTY WAS THE 
INTERNATIONAL FOUNDATION FOR ELECTION SYSTEMS (IFES), 
WHICH WAS UNCEREMONIOUSLY EXPELLED LAST SEPTEMBER IN THE 
MIDDLE OF ITS ASSESSMENT MISSION.  SUBSEQUENT CAT-AND- 
MOUSING WITH THE ZIMBABWEAN EMBASSY IN WASHINGTON LED 
NOWHERE. 
 
4.  (C) THE EU AND ITS PROPOSED 150-STRONG TEAM OF 
OBSERVERS WERE NEXT.  THE GOZ SOUGHT TO CREATE A 
NORDIC/MEDITERRANEAN RIFT (AND SUCCEEDED TO SOME DEGREE) 
BY ALLOWING ONLY NINE MEMBER STATES TO SEND BILATERAL 
REPRESENTATIVES UNDER THE TITULAR AUTHORITY OF THE ACP. 
WHEN THE EU ACQUIESCED TO SOME DEGREE AND SOUGHT A 
COMPROMISE SOLUTION, THE GOZ RESPONDED BY EXPELLING EU 
MISSION HEAD PIERRE SCHORRI.  THE REMAINDER OF THE 
DELEGATION SUBSEQUENTLY WITHDREW, AND THE EU MISSIONS 
LOCATED HERE, IN A FINAL IRONIC GESTURE OF SOLIDARITY, 
AGREED THAT NONE OF THEIR NUMBER WOULD SEEK 
ACCREDITATION TO OBSERVE. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00620  01 OF 05  081222Z 
 
5.  (C) THE NEXT VICTIM WAS ZESN, WHICH HAD TRAINED AND 
LOCATED FUNDING FOR THE DEPLOYMENT OF 14,000 LOCAL 
MONITORS, THE SINGLE MOST EFFECTIVE FORCE IN PROVIDING 
NATIONWIDE COVERAGE.  THE GOZ DID NOT SO MUCH MOVE THE 
GOAL POST ON THIS ATTEMPT AS CHOP IT DOWN.  AFTER 
ACCREDITING A HANDFUL OF SYMPATHETIC "OBSERVERS," 
INCLUDING WAR VETS, THE ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION 
AGREED TWO DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTIONS TO ACCREDIT A TOTAL 
OF 420 ZESN OBSERVERS, ONE OBSERVER PER EACH TEN POLLING 
STATIONS. 
 
6.  (C) LAST DITCH ATTEMPTS TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE 
JUSTICE MINISTER ENDED WITH HIS NO-SHOW AT A FINAL 
SCHEDULED SESSION.  ZESN IS CONSIDERING DEPLOYING 
OBSERVERS WITHOUT CREDENTIALS TO OBSERVE EVENTS FROM 100 
METERS DISTANT FROM THE POLLING STATION, AS PRESCRIBED 
BY THE ELECTORAL LAW.  WHILE SYMBOLIC, SUCH DEPLOYMENT 
HAS LITTLE REAL VALUE.  AND, ADDING INSULT TO INJURY, 
THERE ARE REPORTS FROM NIGERIA OBSERVERS THAT THEY HAVE 
RUN ACROSS ACCREDITED ZANU-PF OBSERVERS ALREADY DEPLOYED 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5969 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00620  02 OF 05  081222Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00  DODE-00  DS-00 
      EAP-00   EUR-00   VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   VCE-00 
      NSAE-00  SSO-00   SS-00    USIE-00  EPAE-00  IIP-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /003W 
                  ------------------716EB2  081223Z /38 
O 081214Z MAR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1141 
INFO OAU COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
AMEMBASSY ACCRA 
AMEMBASSY TOKYO 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
NSC WASHDC 
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 HARARE 000620 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF, PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR AF/S 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
 
CAPETOWN PLEASE PASS A/S KANSTEINER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/03 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00620  02 OF 05  081222Z 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: OUR TAKE ON ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORTS 
         IN ZIMBABWE 
 
TO THE FIELD. 
 
WHAT'S LEFT 
----------- 
7.  (C) BY MAINTAINING FOREIGN MINISTRY CONTROL OVER 
WHAT ORGANIZATIONS/COUNTRIES WERE INVITED, THE GOZ HAS 
MANAGED TO BRING IN SEVERAL HUNDRED MONITORS FROM TWO 
DOZEN DIFFERENT POINTS.  THE GOZ'S INSISTENCE THAT UNDP 
SHOULD NOT PLAY A COORDINATING ROLE HAS ENSURED THAT 
THERE WOULD BE NO CENTRAL COORDINATION, ALTHOUGH THERE 
HAS BEEN AD HOC COORDINATION AMONG THE MORE SERIOUS 
GROUPS.  DELAYS WITH INVITATIONS AND A CUMBERSOME 
CREDENTIALING PROCEDURE HAVE FURTHER SLOWED THE ARRIVAL 
AND DEPLOYMENT OF OBSERVERS TO THE FIELD.  LATECOMERS, 
MANY OF THEM WITH QUESTIONABLE OBSERVER CREDENTIALS, 
HAVE ARRIVED TOO LATE TO ENGAGE IN MUCH MORE THAN 
ELECTORAL TOURISM.  WE HAVE ALSO OBSERVED THAT 24 HOURS 
BEFORE THE POLLS ARE SLATED TO OPEN, THE LUXURY HOTELS 
OF HARARE REMAIN CRAMMED WITH UNDEPLOYED INTERNATIONAL 
OBSERVERS OF VARIOUS STRIPE. 
 
8.  (C) THE VAST MAJORITY OF INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS ARE 
AFRICAN, AN INTEGRAL PART OF MUGABE'S STRATEGY TO 
PORTRAY THE CENTRAL ELECTORAL ISSUE AS WHITE COLONIALIST 
LAND HOLDERS VERSUS INDIGENOUS BLACK AFRICAN PEASANTS 
SEEKING TO REGAIN THEIR AFRICAN BIRTHRIGHT.  MUGABE HAS 
SOUGHT TO DIVIDE AND CONQUER ON ANOTHER LEVEL BY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00620  02 OF 05  081222Z 
PORTRAYING WESTERN CRITICISM OF ELECTORAL VIOLENCE AND 
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RULE OF LAW AS A MANIFESTATION OF 
SUPPORT BY WHITES FOR WHITES.  THIS HAS RESONATED TO 
SOME DEGREE WITHIN AFRICA.  TO DATE, MOST COUNTRIES AND 
AFRICAN MULTILATERAL GROUPS HAVE PUBLICLY TAKEN A SOFT 
LINE.  THE GOZ ALSO MANAGED TO DRIVE A WEDGE INTO CHOGM, 
WITH AFRICAN AND WESTERN STATES DIVIDED AND FORCED INTO 
A COMPROMISE TO ACT AFTER THE ELECTIONS. 
 
9.  (C) THERE WILL BE AS MANY POINTS OF VIEW AS THERE 
ARE GROUPS IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE VOTE.  SEVERAL OF THE 
SADC STATE DELEGATIONS WILL SERVE AS APOLOGISTS FOR THE 
ZANU-PF VICTORY THAT THEY CLEARLY FAVOR.  OTHERS, SUCH 
AS THE NORWEGIANS, WILL HEW TO A HARDER, MORE OBJECTIVE 
LINE.  IN BETWEEN REMAIN THE OTHERS, MANY OF WHICH HAVE 
NOT GIVEN A CLEAR INDICATION OF WHERE THEY WILL COME 
DOWN.  OUR PREDICTIONS, ADMITTEDLY INTUITIVE, FOLLOW. 
 
SOUTH AFRICA OBSERVATION MISSION (SAOM)_ 
--------------------------------------- 
10.  (C) THE LARGEST OBSERVER MISSION BY FAR, SAOM IS 
HARD TO SUM UP DUE TO ITS DISPARATE NATURE.  UNIONISTS, 
ANC REPRESENTATIVES, OPPOSITION FIGURES, AND 
PARLIAMENTARIANS ALL FIGURE INTO THIS.  SEVERAL CHURCH 
AND CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS WERE REFUSED CREDENTIALS AND 
FORCED TO RETURN TO SOUTH AFRICA, IN YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE 
OF GOZ DIVIDE AND CONQUER.  SOME SOUTH AFRICAN DELEGATES 
HAVE TAKEN A HARD LINE WITH US IN PRIVATE ON ZANU-PF. 
OTHERS HAVE EVINCED PUBLIC SYMPATHY TOWARD MUGABE AND 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00620  02 OF 05  081222Z 
SUGGESTED THAT IT IS THE DUTY OF THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT 
FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) TO ACCEPT WHATEVER OUTCOME 
IS ANNOUNCED, NO MATTER HOW TILTED THE ELECTION FIELD 
MIGHT HAVE BEEN. 
 
11.  (C) WE UNDERSTAND THAT THE SAOM HEAD RETURNED HOME 
FOR GUIDANCE ON HOW TO DEAL WITH THE WIDELY DIVERGENT 
VIEWS OF HIS GROUP; HE WAS SENT BACK WITH THE 
INSTRUCTION TO FIND A CONSENSUS.  A FURTHER COMPLICATION 
IS THE HEAVY PRESENCE OF SOUTH AFRICAN REPRESENTATIVES 
ON THE SADC-PF, COMMONWEALTH, AND OAU DELEGATIONS. 
GIVEN THIS COMPLEX LINE-UP, IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE 
WHERE THE SOUTH AFRICANS WILL COME OUT, EITHER BY GROUP 
OR COLLECTIVELY.  HOWEVER, BASED ON STATEMENTS 
QUESTIONING THE MDC'S ABILITY TO GOVERN ZIMBABWE, WE DO 
NOT EXPECT THE SOUTH AFRICANS TO TAKE A HARD-LINE IF 
ZANU-PF IS ANNOUNCED THE VICTOR, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL 
UNDOUBTEDLY CRITICIZE VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION, AND 
PROCEDURAL FLAWS. 
 
NIGERIA 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5970 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00620  03 OF 05  081223Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00  DODE-00  DS-00 
      EAP-00   EUR-00   VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   VCE-00 
      NSAE-00  SSO-00   SS-00    USIE-00  EPAE-00  IIP-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /003W 
                  ------------------716EBF  081223Z /38 
O 081214Z MAR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1142 
INFO OAU COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
AMEMBASSY ACCRA 
AMEMBASSY TOKYO 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
NSC WASHDC 
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HARARE 000620 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF, PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR AF/S 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
 
CAPETOWN PLEASE PASS A/S KANSTEINER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/03 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00620  03 OF 05  081223Z 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: OUR TAKE ON ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORTS 
         IN ZIMBABWE 
 
------- 
12.  (C) CHIEF ERNEST SHONEKAN LED APPROXIMATELY 20 
NIGERIAN OBSERVERS TO THE FIELD LESS THAN A WEEK BEFORE 
THE ELECTION WAS TO TAKE PLACE.  THEY HAVE DEPLOYED TO 
THE FIELD AND HAVE WITNESSED SOME OF THE VIOLENCE AND 
PROCEDURAL IRREGULARITIES FIRST-HAND, ACCORDING TO 
REPORTS FROM ACCOMPANYING NIGERIAN DIPLOMATS.  NIGERIA 
IS ALSO WELL REPRESENTED ON THE COMMONWEALTH DELEGATION. 
THE AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH SHONEKAN WAS NOT 
PARTICULARLY REASSURING (SEPTEL), AND WE CANNOT AT THIS 
JUNCTURE TELL WHERE THE NIGERIANS WILL COME OUT ON THE 
COMPORTMENT OF THE ELECTIONS, BUT IT IS LIKELY TO 
REPRESENT A NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT DECISION OF WHAT POSTURE 
TO TAKE.   PRESIDENT OBASANJO'S PRESENCE ON THE THREE- 
PERSON COMMONWEALTH REVIEW PANEL WILL ENSURE THAT 
WHATEVER THE OUTCOME, THE NIGERIANS WILL REMAIN CLOSELY 
ENGAGED. 
 
COMMONWEALTH 
------------ 
13.  (C) THE COMMONWEALTH HAS MARSHALED THE LARGEST 
MULTILATERAL MISSION, ABOUT 100 STRONG.  THEY WERE THE 
FIRST INTO THE FIELD AND HAVE THE STRONGEST 
ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE.  THE MISSION LEADER, 
ABDULSALAMI ABUBAKAR HAS MADE AT LEAST ONE REGRETTABLE 
PUBLIC COMMENT IN WHICH HE IMPLIED THAT JOURNALISTS WERE 
EXAGGERATING THE AMOUNT OF ELECTORAL VIOLENCE.  THE GOZ 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00620  03 OF 05  081223Z 
RAN THIS STATEMENT THROUGH ITS PROPAGANDA MILL, 
PROMPTING A STIFF COMMONWEALTH COMMUNIQUE COMPLAINING 
THAT ABUBAKAR HAD BEEN TAKEN OUR OF CONTEXT.  THE 
PRESENCE OF AUSTRALIANS, NEW ZEALANDERS, AND 
REPRESENTATIVES OF CARIBBEAN STATES WILL PROBABLY 
PREVENT ABUBAKAR FROM GLOSSING OVER THE PROBLEMS OF THE 
ELECTION, WHATEVER HIS PERSONAL INCLINATION MIGHT BE. 
 
AU/OAU 
------ 
14.  (C) THERE ARE RELIABLE REPORTS THAT THE AU 
DELEGATION HEAD HAD ATTEMPTED TO BROKER A COMMON, PRO- 
MUGABE STATEMENT FOR THE POST-ELECTION PERIOD, AN EFFORT 
THAT HAS THUS FAR NOT TAKEN ROOT.  GIVING THE HEAD OF 
DELEGATION'S SIMPERING STATEMENTS FOLLOWING A MEETING 
WITH MUGABE, BROADCAST ON THE NEWS THAT PAST TWO NIGHTS, 
WE HAVE VERY LOW EXPECTATIONS.  THERE ARE REPORTEDLY 
FOURTEEN NATIONALITIES REPRESENTED IN THE GROUP 
 
COMESA 
------ 
15.  (U) A SMALL GROUP LED  BY DR. SITELE MWALE 
WILL BE HERE ON ELECTION DAY.  WE HAVE NO FURTHER 
INFORMATION, INCLUDING WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL DELIVER 
A POST-ELECTION STATEMENT, ALTHOUGH MWALE TOLD US 
EARLIER THAT HE DID NOT EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN IF COMESA 
DID COME. 
 
SADC-PF 
------- 
16.  (C) WE HAVE BEEN VERY PLEASED WITH THE 50 PLUS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00620  03 OF 05  081223Z 
SADC-PF OBSERVERS, WHO HAVE EMPLOYED IN 19 TEAMS 
THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY.  MISSION LEADER DUKE LEFHOKO 
FROM BOTSWANA HAS BEEN THE MOST OUTSPOKEN OF THE 
AFRICANS, CRITICIZING THE "STATE OF FEAR" THROUGHOUT 
ZIMBABWE AND NOT PULLING HIS PUNCHES IN PRESS 
INTERVIEWS.  NAMIBIAN OPPOSITION MP NORA SCHIMMING-CHASE 
HAS ALSO BEEN A FORCE TO RECKON WITH.  TWO NDI STAFFERS 
WHO VISITED EARLIER THIS WEEK EXPRESSED THEIR 
SATISFACTION WITH SADC-PF'S PERFORMANCE TO DATE AND SAID 
THAT THEY EXPECT THE FINAL REPORT TO BE HONEST, ALTHOUGH 
PROBABLY NOT CONFRONTATIONAL.  SADC SYG MUTUKWA, WHO IS 
INTERESTED IN A SECOND TERM, HAS BEEN WALKING A 
TIGHTROPE BETWEEN HIS SADC COUNTERPARTS AND THE WESTERN 
SOURCES OF FUNDING.  WE THINK THAT HE HAS DONE A VERY 
GOOD JOB TO DATE AT COORDINATING WITH THE OTHER MOST 
CREDIBLE OBSERVER MISSIONS. 
 
SADC MINISTERIAL 
---------------- 
17.  (U) NO-SHOWS SO FAR.  IF THEY DO ARRIVE, WE EXPECT 
NOTHING MEANINGFUL FROM THEM, ON THE BASIS OF PAST 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO3192 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00620  04 OF 05  081223Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00  DODE-00  DS-00 
      EAP-00   EUR-00   VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   VCE-00 
      NSAE-00  SSO-00   SS-00    USIE-00  EPAE-00  IIP-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /003W 
                  ------------------716ECD  081223Z /38 
O 081214Z MAR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1143 
INFO OAU COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
AMEMBASSY ACCRA 
AMEMBASSY TOKYO 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
NSC WASHDC 
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 HARARE 000620 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF, PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR AF/S 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
 
CAPETOWN PLEASE PASS A/S KANSTEINER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/03 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00620  04 OF 05  081223Z 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: OUR TAKE ON ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORTS 
         IN ZIMBABWE 
 
PERFORMANCE 
 
NORWAY 
------ 
18.  (C) THE NORWEGIANS HAVE DEPLOYED TEN WELL-QUALIFIED 
TEAMS UNDER THE SUPERVISION OF AN EXTREMELY EXPERIENCED 
ELECTION EXPERT.  THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE THICK OF THINGS, 
INCLUDING VISITS TO VILLAGES BURNED OUT BY PRO-ZANU-PF 
MILITIAS AND HOSPITALS LODGING THE VICTIMS OF ELECTORAL 
VIOLENCE.  THEY ARE CAREFULLY DOCUMENTING THEIR FINDINGS 
AND HAVE AGREED COORDINATE CLOSELY WITH US.  THIS IS A 
FIRST-RATE EFFORT; WE ARE SURPRISED THAT SOMEHOW THEY 
MANAGED TO CADGE AN INVITATION, WHICH WAS PROBABLY THE 
OUTCOME OF A "DIVIDE AND RULE" MOVE AGAINST THE 
EUROPEANS/NORDICS THAT BACKFIRED. 
 
TANZANIA, NAMIBIA AND THE WHITEWASH BRIGADE 
------------------------------------------- 
19.  (C) A NUMBER OF SADC BILATERAL DELEGATIONS APPEAR 
READY TO ACCEPT A MUGABE VICTORY AND FACE VALUE, AND A 
SUBSEQUENT THUMBS-UP FOR THE PROCESS.  NAMIBIAN TEAM 
LEADER MBUENDE, WHO AS FAR AS WE KNOW HAS NOT STRAYED 
FAR FROM HIS HOTEL, HAD ALREADY BEEN QUOTED IN GOZ 
PAPERS AS SAYING THAT REPORTS OF VIOLENCE ARE 
EXAGGERATED, AND BOTH SIDES EQUALLY RESPONSIBLE.  THE 
MALAWAIAN DELEGATION MAY FIT IN THE SAME MOLD, ALTHOUGH 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00620  04 OF 05  081223Z 
WE HAVE HEARD THAT A GOM ATTEMPT TO REPLACE CIVIL 
SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES WITH JOURNALISTS FROM GOVERNMENT 
MEDIA WAS THWARTED BY THE NORWEGIANS, WHO THREATENED TO 
PULL THE PLUG ON THE FUNDING.  OBSERVERS FROM GHANA AND 
OTHER SMALLER BILATERAL GROUPS HAVE SEEN THE MEDIA 
DISTORTION AND PROCEDURAL PROBLEMS FIRST-HAND BUT THUS 
FAR HAVE KEPT THEIR PEACE ON THE ISSUE.  WE CANNOT 
PREDICT WHERE THEY WILL COME OUT. 
 
OTHERS 
------ 
20.  (SBU) A NUMBER OF OTHER, SMALLER GROUPS PRESENT ON 
THE GROUND WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON WHAT OCCURS, 
LARGELY BECAUSE THEY ARE FEW IN NUMBER, LATE TO ARRIVE, 
AND BEREFT OF ADMINISTRATIVE REPORT.  THE EMBASSY HAS 
MET WITH AND OFFERED TO ASSIST THE FIVE-PERSON 
DELEGATION FROM THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR THE 
ADVANCEMENT OF COLORED PEOPLE (NAACP).  THE TEAM LEADER 
TOLD US THAT THEY DO NOT EXPECT TO SUBMIT A PUBLIC 
REPORT, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REPORT BACK TO THE NAACP 
BOARD OF DIRECTORS.  WE ARE CONVINCED THAT THERE ARE A 
NUMBER OF OTHER GROUPS PRESENT OF WHICH WE REMAIN 
UNAWARE. 
 
U.S. EMBASSY OBSERVERS 
---------------------- 
21. (C) NINE TEAMS OF EMBASSY OBSERVERS HAVE BEEN 
SCOURING THE COUNTRYSIDE TO ASSESS PRE-ELECTION 
CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST THREE WEEKS.  THEY ARE NOW 
DEPLOYING BACK TO THE FIELD FOR OBSERVATION DURING THE 
VOTING PROCESS.  THUS FAR, OUR TEAMS HAVE SPENT NEARLY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00620  04 OF 05  081223Z 
300 PERSON-DAYS IN THE FIELD COVERING 23,000 MILES 
DURING WHICH THEY HAVE INTERVIEWED OVER 1,000 PEOPLE. 
OUR METHODOLOGY WAS TO SET AN ITINERARY AND MEET 
REPRESENTATIVES OF ALL STAKEHOLDERS AND TO AVOID BEING 
DIRECTED BY ANY ONE PARTY, TO MAINTAIN NEUTRALITY OF 
VIEW AND FINDINGS. 
 
22.  (C) THE LIST OF CONTACTS INCLUDE LAWYERS, NGO/SOS, 
POLICE, INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS, GOVERNORS AND DISTRICT 
ADMINISTRATORS, APPOINTED AND ELECTED LOCAL OFFICIALS, 
TRADITIONAL LEADERS, COMMERCIAL FARMERS, BUSINESSMEN OF 
VARIOUS DESCRIPTION, DOCTORS, LOCAL ELECTION OFFICIALS, 
POLITICAL PARTY REPRESENTATIVES, OTHER OBSERVERS, WAR 
VETS AND YOUTH MILITIA, AND THEIR VICTIMS.  OUR TEAMS 
HAVE BEEN STOPPED AT ROADBLOCKS, MENACED ON A FEW 
OCCASIONS, AND GIVEN SEATS OF HONOR AT ZANU-PF RALLIES 
ON OTHERS.  THEY HAVE ON ONE OCCASION DELIVERED FIRST 
AID TREATMENT TO A VICTIM OF VIOLENCE.  WE HAVE 
CONFIRMED REPORTS THAT SEVERAL OF THEIR CONTACTS, 
INCLUDING FOREIGN MISSIONARIES HAVE BEEN VISITED AND 
ABDUCTED/ASSAULTED BY ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS AFTER THE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO3193 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00620  05 OF 05  081224Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00  DODE-00  DS-00 
      EAP-00   EUR-00   VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   VCE-00 
      NSAE-00  SSO-00   SS-00    USIE-00  EPAE-00  IIP-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /003W 
                  ------------------716ED4  081224Z /38 
O 081214Z MAR 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1144 
INFO OAU COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
AMEMBASSY ACCRA 
AMEMBASSY TOKYO 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
NSC WASHDC 
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 HARARE 000620 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF, PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR AF/S 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
 
CAPETOWN PLEASE PASS A/S KANSTEINER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/03 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00620  05 OF 05  081224Z 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: OUR TAKE ON ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORTS 
         IN ZIMBABWE 
 
MEETINGS.  WE BELIEVE THAT THE SUM TOTAL OF OUR EFFORTS 
HAS BEEN TO COMPILE A CREDIBLE OVERVIEW OF THE PRE- 
ELECTION ENVIRONMENT.  WE WILL REPORT OUR CONCLUSIONS 
SEPTEL. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
23.  (C) IT IS OUR CONCLUSION THAT DUE TO GOZ 
SHENANIGANS, THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE PRE-ELECTION 
ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN INADEQUATE.  ONLY FOUR OF THE 
GROUPS INVOLVED -- COMMONWEALTH, SAOM, US, AND SADC-PF -- 
HAVE GOTTEN ENOUGH PEOPLE INTO THE FIELD FOR A 
SUFFICIENT TIME TO BE ABLE TO DRAW ACCURATE CONCLUSIONS, 
IF THESE GROUPS SO CHOOSE.  ELECTION DAY WILL BE EQUALLY 
HIT AND MISS LARGELY DUE TO THE BLOCKAGE OF THE ZESN 
DOMESTIC OBSERVERS.  THE GOZ MAY HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN 
OBSCURING TO SOME DEGREE WHAT THEY HAVE DONE IN THE 
LEAD-UP TO THE ELECTION, AND PROBABLY ON ELECTION DAY AS 
WELL.  HOWEVER, IN THE PROCESS THEY HAVE ALSO OPENED 
THEMSELVES TO POST-ELECTION ACCUSATIONS THAT NEITHER THE 
PRE-ELECTION ENVIRONMENT NOR ELECTION DAY ACTIVITIES ADD 
UP TO A VOTE, AND AN ANNOUNCED RESULT, THAT CAN BE 
JUDGED AS FREE AND FAIR.  WE BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE 
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DOCUMENTARY EVIDENCE ON HAND TO 
OUTWEIGH ANY EFFORTS BY LESS RELIABLE OBSERVER MISSIONS 
TO WHITEWASH THE OUTCOME.  IN OUR VIEW, THE GOZ AND 
ZANU-PF HAVE CREATED A LOSE/LOSE SCENARIO FOR THEMSELVES 
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IN THE COURT OF WORLD OPINION . 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
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