US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI314

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000314 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: PFP POLITICAL PROSPECTS AWAIT SOONG'S RETURN 
 
REF: TAIPEI 00168 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: PFP Chairman James Soong delayed his rumored 
January 21 return to Taiwan, generating further questions 
about his intentions and leaving unresolved PFP prospects in 
the Legislative Yuan session beginning February 1.  PFP Vice 
Chairman Chang Chao-hsiung announced that PFP officials would 
not accept posts in the new DPP government.  The KMT has 
maintained a discreet silence on media speculation of DPP-PFP 
cooperation, but it has in recent days sought pragmatically 
to draw the PFP back into the Pan-Blue fold with talks of a 
joint campaign for election of LY Speaker and Deputy Speaker. 
 End Summary. 
 
Medium Term Reassurances 
------------------------ 
 
2. (C) People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong did not 
end his month-long post LY election exile in California and 
return to Taiwan on January 21, generating questions about 
his intentions and leaving unresolved the PFP role in the 
upcoming Legislative Yuan (LY) session beginning February 1. 
PFP Vice Chairman Chang Chao-hsiung, however, did return from 
meeting with Soong in the U.S. to try to clarify the 
situation by announcing that Soong would not meet with Chen 
Shui-bian on his return to Taiwan.  The PFP, he stated, is an 
independent entity with its own agenda, and PFP officials 
will not accept posts in the DPP government.  He also 
confirmed Soong's support for KMT Vice Chairman Wang 
Jin-pyng's re-election bid for LY Speaker, and noted there 
are many in the PFP interested in being Deputy LY Speaker. 
(Note:  PFP insider Raymond Wu told AIT on January 11 that 
Soong would return near the end of January.  End note) 
 
Making Lemonade Out of Lemons 
----------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Having suffered a painful legislative defeat, the PFP 
is moving to save a role for itself as what KMT Legislator 
John Chang (Hsiao-yen) called the "crucial minority" in the 
LY.  The PFP's 34 LY members are theoretically essential to 
either DPP or KMT hopes for majority control of the LY. 
Echoing Chang's statements on PFP autonomy, PFP Legislator 
Hwang Yih-jiau told AIT that his party intends to keep an 
equal distance from both KMT and DPP.  Noting that he had 
accompanied Soong to some of his meetings with USG officials 
in Washington, Hwang said the U.S. government had urged Soong 
and the PFP to be more non-partisan for the sake of 
government efficiency.  Hwang said the USG suggestion is 
consistent with Soong's prior statement that PFP would look 
for ways to cooperate with the DPP on legislation that would 
benefit the people's livelihood. 
 
4. (C) While the PFP would not rule out cooperating, PFP 
officials are now downplaying reports of an outright alliance 
with the DPP.  Responding to DPP attempts to court the PFP 
with hints of cabinet appointments, Vincent Chang 
(Hsien-yao), PFP Policy Research Center Director and newly 
elected legislator, announced January 21 that PFP would not 
discuss the possibility of a coalition government unless DPP 
first dropped its party manifesto on Taiwan independence. 
Chang also stated that Soong is completely uninterested in 
being chairman of Chen Shui-bian's proposed "Cross-Strait 
Peace Development Committee." 
 
Seeking a Price for Cooperation with KMT 
---------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Soong's flirtation with the DPP is most likely 
intended to give the election-weakened PFP a bargaining chip 
to lever its position with the KMT.  KMT Chairman Lien Chan 
told the AIT Director he had received reassurances of 
cooperation by telephone from Soong.  Recently, the KMT has 
begun to use the media to draw the PFP back into the Pan-Blue 
fold.  On January 23, KMT Legislator Tseng Yung-chuan told 
the press that Vincent Chang had telephoned him to request an 
early decision on a joint KMT-PFP LY Speaker-Deputy Speaker 
ticket, so that a joint task force could be formed to 
campaign for the two jobs.  Tseng, however, admitted that 
KMT-PFP cooperation on LY positions and other related issues 
could not be finalized until after a meeting between Lien 
Chan and Soong after the latter's return to Taiwan. 
6. (C) The KMT for the most part has refrained from 
commenting directly on the ongoing DPP courtship of PFP. 
Joanna Chen, Chief of Staff for KMT Legislator John Chang, 
told AIT that Lien Chan had instructed KMT members not to 
comment on the issue for fear of pushing the mercurial Soong 
into actually cooperating with the DPP.  Privately, some KMT 
officials are worried the PFP will cooperate with the DPP "in 
some way."  Veteran KMT Legislator James Chen (Chien-chih) 
outlined for AIT on January 21 just how Soong might try to 
justify to PFP supporters cooperation with the DPP.  Soong, 
Chen surmised, could point to the KMT's "black gold" 
(corruption) problem as a valid reason for breaking with KMT, 
at least on certain issues.  Soong could then portray PFP-DPP 
cooperation as an act of self-sacrifice for the greater good 
and as a way to inject PFP ideals into the DPP government. 
Having surprisingly been granted a clean bill of health by 
Chen administration prosecutors on his long outstanding 
Hsinpiao corruption case earlier this month, Soong is on 
firmer ground to try this tactic. 
 
Comment: Postponing the Inevitable 
---------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Since his departure from Taiwan almost immediately 
after the end of the LY election on December 11, James Soong 
has kept political observers guessing his every move.  His 
absence encouraged the DPP to float rumors of a possible 
DPP-PFP alliance and coalition government with PFP members in 
key positions and to sow seeds of distrust within the 
Pan-Blue coalition (Reftel).  For his part, Soong seems to be 
trying to exploit the rumors and the PFP's role as a possible 
swing minority in the LY to lever his and the PFP's position 
both in Taiwan politics and within the Pan-Blue alliance. 
James Chen pointed out that despite the grumbling within his 
own party about Soong being out for himself, no one in the 
party would dare defy Soong (even if he joined the DPP), and 
ultimately Soong would likely have the final say on selecting 
the PFP candidate for LY Deputy Speaker and all other 
outstanding issues involving the PFP.  Soong's reluctance to 
depart the U.S., however, suggests his control of the PFP may 
be more fragile than Chen suggests.  Soong's room for 
maneuver will significantly diminish the minute he lands in 
Taiwan and has to face his PFP colleagues and supporters. 
PAAL